Wfs Psw Finance V1
THE POST SCARCITY WORLD
From Scarcity To Post Scarcity
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Director of Research
The European Futures Observatory
stephena@eufo.org
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There are two long term drivers to the global economy.
How much we have.
How much we need.
If we have more than
If we have less than we
we need, then
need, then scarcity
abundance results.
results.
Over supply forces
A shortage of supply
down the price of
forces up the price of
goods. Which
goods. This limits the
stimulates the
extent to which the
economy, generates
economy can grow, has
growth and fills the
a depressionary effect,
public purse.
and empties the public
purse.
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A long view of the economy.
Source: http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
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This has an impact upon prices over the long term.
Source:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
weo/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf
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More recently the recent inflation trend has been upwards.
Source:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
weo/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf
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Why?
The balance between what we have and what we need has
changed and will continue to do so for the first half of this
century.
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Why do we need more?
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Why can’t we have more?
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Is it only energy that is peaking?
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The only way out is to get more from less, which is what we
have started to do.
When this becomes embedded, we will have passed from
the Age of Scarcity to the Post Scarcity World.
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THE POST SCARCITY WORLD
Post Scarcity Finance
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Director of Research
The European Futures Observatory
stephena@eufo.org
THE EUROPEAN
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OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2009
How the future resembles today.
In a Post Scarcity World, we will continue to need
money to …
… act as a unit of account.
… act as a medium of exchange.
… act as a store of wealth.
… act as a standard for deferred payments.
In this way there is continuity between the past, present, and
future.
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How the future resembles today.
If money continues to exist, we shall need a Central
Bank to …
… issue and guarantee the currency.
… supervise the financial system.
… act as a lender of the last resort.
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How the future resembles today.
If money continues to exist, and need a Central
Bank, then we will also need a banking system to …
… match those with surplus funds (savers) to those with a
deficit of funds (borrowers).
… determine the time cost of money (the interest rate) and
the means by which the present values the future (the
discount rate).
… innovate and operate a system of financial instruments
that matches the needs of saver and investors to the needs of
the users of funds.
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How the future resembles today.
In the Post Scarcity World, it is not unreasonable to
predict that …
… there will still be a monetary system …
… supervised by a Central Bank ...
… and operated by a banking system.
In which case, what is different to today?
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How the future differs from today.
The form of money could be radically different from
today.
We could see the greater incidence of digital cash to replace
notes and coin.
The monetary system could become more dehumanised
through migration into virtual worlds and on-line banking
facilities.
There may be a greater degree of currency integration
between nations.
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How the future differs from today.
The shape of Central Banks will reflect the ways in
which sovereignty develops.
If there is a lessening of the nation-state, then there will be a
gravitation towards a supra-national currency.
If the process of globalisation weakens, then national
currencies would be strengthened and the Central banking
system will be characterised by international co-operation.
The Post Scarcity Financial System is likely to be
characterised by a period of liberalisation as a reaction to a
period of regulation in the Age of Scarcity.
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How the future differs from today.
The shape of the banking system will reflect the
society it serves.
Banks may not be banks as we currently know them. What
we currently see as telephone companies or supermarkets
may develop into retail banks.
If the digitisation of the banking system grows, then we can
expect to see larger volumes of ‘hot’ money that moves
around the world at greater speeds.
If the process of globalisation weakens, we are more likely to
see the development of national banks and less likely to see
the growth of global financial institutions.
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Conclusion.
In many respects, the Post Scarcity World will be very
similar to today.
There will be some major dissimilarities, depending upon
how society develops in the Age of Scarcity, along with the
impact of digitisation and globalisation.
It is likely that banks will still be banks, they will continue to
make profits, from which banker’s bonuses will be paid.
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