Tp Hồ ChàMinh, Ngày Tháng 3 Năm 2009
DAILY REPORT
14 October 2009
Soft loan repayment to boost dong liquidity
Exchange rate:
The repayment of loans under the government's
Curr.
Prev.
%chg.
stimulus program is expected to boost dong
13/10/09
12/10/09
liquidity at banks in Vietnam between now and the US$/VND*
17,853.00
17,851.00
0.011%
end of the year and ease pressure to increase dong US$/Yen*
86.85
87.22
-0.422%
deposit rates, bankers said. They expected about Euro/US$*
1.525
1.516
0.629%
half of the loans, valued at VND409 trillion (*) applicable in Vietnam only
(US$22.9 billion), under the government's interest External factor:
Aug 09
Sep 09
subsidy scheme for short- and medium-term debt Exports (YoY%)
-14.2%
-14.3%
would be repaid by end-December. The rest would Imports (YoY%)
-28.2%
-25.2%
be due by the end of 2011.
Trade balance (US$, m)
-5,121
-6,542
FDI (US$, m)
5,428.9
5,625.2
Vietnam to subsidize company borrowing to Public factor:
Dec 08
Mar 09
Budget balance (VND, bil)
-66,900
-14,290
spur economic growth
Vietnam will subsidize borrowing for companies Recommended stocks as of Oct 14, 2009
and individuals to help boost growth in the
Stock Exchange
Stock
Support
Resistance
DRC
130-135
170-175
Southeast Asian economy, the central bank said.
VNM
78-80
88-90
The State Bank of Vietnam will provide an interest-
HOSE
SSI
70-72
82-84
rate subsidy of as much as 4 percentage points on
HPG
60-62
73-75
medium- and long- term loans disbursed between
PVG
32-34
40-42
April 1 this year and Dec. 31, 2010, according to a
CDC
52-54
65-67
statement on the bank’s website Monday.
HNX
HOM
16-17
21-22
HPC
26-28
38-40
Official and unofficial dollar prices get closer
Domestic monitor:
Aug 09
Sep 09
HCMC – The State Bank of Vietnam on Saturday Retail Sales (VND, bil)
742,699
845,416
quoted the inter-bank foreign exchange rate Interest rate monitor:
between the Vietnamese dong and the U.S. dollar at
-1M
-3M
VND17,001, the highest ever, helping the dollar
(%)
30/09/09
31/08/09
30/06/09
price at banks move closer to the price on the Interbank (O/N)
5.80
6.61
5.15
unofficial market
10-year bond (VN)
10% p.a
10% p.a
9.4% p.a
3-month LIBOR
0.28688
0.34750
0.59500
MARKET ANALYSIS:
VN Index had surged for two straight weeks
from an area of its 10-week WMA line around
550 to mark a high at 597 yesterday. The index
challenged the 200-week WMA line of 590-
600 for the second time, yet to be able to
breakthrough. It then eased to close at 589 with
a negative Tweezers Top. In the same time,
both RSI and Stochastic have been moving in
bearish divergence patterns. These events
indicate short-term correction possibly occur
next few weeks. Should investors consider take
profits after which could possibly buy back
while VNI close a gap of 560-570 interval. On
a longer term basis, we believe the market
could certainly prevail above the 200-week
WMA
line
given
adopting
sufficient
consolation. Stocks in the table did surge
strongly, sending prices to move in steep
overbought zones.
Thanh Cong Securities
36 Tay Thanh, Tan Phu District, HCMC, Vietnam
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Tel: +84 8 38150888
Fax: + 84 8 38159077
E-mail: info@tcsc.vn
Website: http://www.tcsc.vn
HNX Index also perform an outstanding
movement. The index has been rising along its
10-week WMA line and finally breakthrough
the Head & Shoulders Bottom’ neckline of
190. Having prevailed above the neckline is in
fact bullish signal to medium-term prospect as
the Head & Shoulders Bottom will drive the
index to an ultimate target around 330-350.
However, since HNX rose above the resistance
line just a few points. Investors should allow
some time of confirmation if the index could
withhold firmly. In case of it fails to withstand
above the 190-neckline, the market possibly
ease to 10-week WMA line at 175-180 one
more time of which investors can make
additional investment.
FIGURE 1: GDP Growth
F FIG
IGU U
R R
E E 2:
2: In
Infl flat
ati ion
on HH
i i
st story
ory
Source: GSO, Bloomberg
FIGURE 3: CPI Chart
F FIG
IGU U
R R
E E
4 2:
: In
Pri fl
m ati
e r on
ate H
istory
Source: GSO
Source: SBV
Thanh Cong Securities
36 Tay Thanh, Tan Phu District, HCMC, Vietnam
Page 2/3
Tel: +84 8 38150888
Fax: + 84 8 38159077
E-mail: info@tcsc.vn
Website: http://www.tcsc.vn
FIGURE 5: CPI by group
Aug-09
Sep-09
Sep-09
%MoM
%YoY
Food & foodstuffs
175.87
175.95
0.05%
1.79%
Beverage & Cigarette
137.03
138.06
0.75%
8.3%
Clothing
133.41
134.30
0.67%
7.29%
House Materials
149.78
151.09
0.87%
0.71%
House Appliances
132.43
132.92
0.37%
6.31%
Medical Products
126.69
126.93
0.19%
3.79%
Transport & Communication
128.09
131.12
2.37%
-6.18%
Telecom
74.35
74.33
-0.03%
-11.1%
Education
116.24
121.28
4.34%
6.18%
Entertainment
118.85
119.15
0.25%
3.34%
Miscelaneous
145.25
145.95
0.48%
11.22%
Total
151.13
152.07
0.62%
2.42%
Source:GSO & Bloomberg
FIGURE 6: World Gold & Oil Chart
Source:www.kitco.com, Bloomberg
Puwadol Wongviriyachai no.17620 Tel. 66(0) 2264-5888 ext 1223 email Puwadolw@ktzmico.com
Tran Nhat Quang, Tel: 84 90377 7177 email quang.tn@tcsc.vn
Tran Xuan Tuan, Tel: 84 93880 8038 email tuan.tx@tcsc.vn
Tran Thi Quynh Nhu, Tel: 84 93880 8136 email Nhu.ttq@tcsc.vn
Disclaimer
The research of Thanh Cong Securities JSC. (TCSC) is to provide general information and our opinion on stock market. Investors
should use information, our comment as a reference source before making own investment decisions.
The information contained in this research has been verified carefully; however TCSC takes no responsibility with regard to the
accuracy or completeness of any information contained here.
Viewpoint and analysis in the research can be changed without notification.
The research is a property of TCSC and under copyright protection. Infringement of copy, change and reprint of the research without
permission of TCSC is illegal. TCSC owns the copyright on the research.
Thanh Cong Securities
36 Tay Thanh, Tan Phu District, HCMC, Vietnam
Page 3/3
Tel: +84 8 38150888
Fax: + 84 8 38159077
E-mail: info@tcsc.vn
Website: http://www.tcsc.vn
