Media
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
E U R O P E
Morgan Stanley & Co. International Edward Hill-Wood
plc+
Edward.Hill-Wood@morganstanley.com
+44 (0)20 7425 9224
Patrick Wellington
Patrick.Wellington@morganstanley.com
+44 (0)20 7425 8605
Julien Rossi
July 10, 2009
Julien.Rossi@morganstanley.com
+44 (0)20 7425 9755
Industry View
Media & Internet
In-Line
How Teenagers
Consume Media
Digital media is profoundly transforming consumer
behaviour and traditional media business models. While
creating new opportunities, its disruptive influence is
being accelerated by the global recession.
At the vanguard of this digital revolution are teenagers.
While their habits will obviously change (especially when
they start employment), understanding their mindset
seems an excellent way of assessing how the media
landscape will evolve. To this end, we asked a 15 year
old summer work intern, Matthew Robson, to
describe how he and his friends consume media.
Without claiming representation or statistical accuracy,
his piece provides one of the clearest and most thought
provoking insights we have seen. So we published it.
There are several issues that immediately jump out from
the piece. Teenagers are consuming more media, but
in entirely different ways and are almost certainly not
prepared to pay for it. They resent intrusive
advertising on billboards, TV and the Internet. They are
happy to chase content and music across platforms
and devices (iPods, mobiles, streaming sites). Print
media (newspapers, directories) are viewed as
irrelevant but events (cinema, concerts etc.) remain
popular and one of the few beneficiaries of payment.
The convergence of gaming, TV, mobile and Internet is
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As
accelerating with huge implications for pay-TV.
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the
For mobiles, price is key – both in terms of handset
objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors
prices – £100-200 – as well as taking pay as you go as
should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a
opposed to contracts. Mid-range feature phones still
single factor in making their investment decision.
Customers of Morgan Stanley in the US can receive
dominate, meaning that Sony Ericsson does well as
independent, third-party research on companies
that's their sweet spot. High-end smartphones are
covered in Morgan Stanley Research, at no cost to
desirable but too expensive. Most prefer to own
them, where such research is available. Customers
separate devices for music, and messaging. Texting is
can access this independent research at
still key and use of new data services limited due to cost.
www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call
1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research.
Wi-Fi is more popular than 3G.
For analyst certification and other important
disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
While these trends will not necessarily surprise, their
located at the end of this report.
influence on TMT stocks cannot be underestimated.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be
associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a
research analyst account.
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
July 10, 2009
Media & Internet
How Teenagers Consume
very reluctant to pay for a newspaper (hence the popularity of
Media
freesheets such as the Metro). Over the last few weeks, the
sun has decreased in cost to 20p, so I have seen more and
By Matthew Robson (Aged 15 yrs & 7 months)
more copies read by teenagers. Another reason why mainly
tabloids are read is that their compact size allows them to be
Radio
read easily, on a bus or train. This is especially true for The
Most teenagers nowadays are not regular listeners to radio.
Metro, as it is distributed on buses and trains.
They may occasionally tune in, but they do not try to listen to a
program specifically. The main reason teenagers listen to the
Gaming
radio is for music, but now with online sites streaming music for
Whilst the stereotypical view of gamers is teenage boys, the
free they do not bother, as services such as last.fm do this
emergence of the Wii onto the market has created a plethora of
advert free, and users can choose the songs they want instead
girl gamers and younger (6+) gamers. The most common
of listening to what the radio presenter/DJ chooses.
console is the Wii, then the Xbox 360 followed by the PS3.
Most teenagers with a games console tend to game not in short
Television
bursts, but in long stints (upwards of an hour).
Most teenagers watch television, but usually there are points in
the year where they watch more than average. This is due to
As consoles are now able to connect to the internet, voice chat
programs coming on in seasons, so they will watch a particular
is possible between users, which has had an impact on phone
show at a certain time for a number of weeks (as long as it
usage; one can speak for free over the console and so a
lasts) but then they may watch no television for weeks after the
teenager would be unwilling to pay to use a phone.
program has ended.
PC gaming has little or no place in the teenage market. This
Teenage boys (generally) watch more TV when it is the football
may be because usually games are released across all
season, often watching two games and related shows a week
platforms, and whilst one can be sure a game will play on a
(totalling about 5 hours of viewing). A portion of teenagers
console PC games require expensive set ups to ensure a game
watches programs that are regular (such as soap operas) at
will play smoothly. In addition, PC games are relatively easy to
least five times a week for half an hour or so but this portion is
pirate and download for free, so many teenagers would do this
shrinking, as it is hard to find the time each day.
rather than buy a game. In contrast, it is near impossible to
obtain a console game for free.
Teenagers are also watching less television because of
services such as BBC iPlayer, which allows them to watch
Internet
shows when they want. Whilst watching TV, adverts come on
Every teenager has some access to the internet, be it at school
quite regularly (18 minutes of every hour) and teenagers do not
or home. Home use is mainly used for fun (such as social
want to watch these, so they switch to another channel, or do
networking) whilst school (or library) use is for work.
something else whilst the adverts run.
Most teenagers are heavily active on a combination of social
The majority of teenagers I speak to have Virgin Media as their
networking sites. Facebook is the most common, with nearly
provider, citing lower costs but similar content of Sky. A fraction
everyone with an internet connection registered and visiting >4
of teenagers have Freeview but these people are light users of
times a week. Facebook is popular as one can interact with
TV (they watch about 1 ½ hours per week) so they do not
friends on a wide scale. On the other hand, teenagers do not
require the hundreds of channels that other providers offer.
use twitter. Most have signed up to the service, but then just
leave it as they release that they are not going to update it
(mostly because texting twitter uses up credit, and they would
Newspapers
rather text friends with that credit). In addition, they realise that
No teenager that I know of regularly reads a newspaper, as
no one is viewing their profile, so their ‘tweets’ are pointless.
most do not have the time and cannot be bothered to read
pages and pages of text while they could watch the news
Outside of social networking, the internet is used primarily as a
summarised on the internet or on TV.
source of information for a variety of topics. For searching the
web, Google is the dominant figure, simply because it is well
The only newspapers that are read are tabloids and freesheets
known and easy to use. Some teenagers make purchases on
(Metro, London Lite…) mainly because of cost; teenagers are
the internet (on sites like eBay) but this is only used by a small
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
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Media & Internet
percentage, as a credit card is required and most teenagers do
will) so that they can transfer it to portable music players and
not have credit cards. Many teenagers use YouTube to watch
share it with friends.
videos (usually anime which cannot be watched anywhere
else) and some use it as a music player by having a video with
How teenagers play their music while on the go varies, and
the music they want to listen to playing in the background.
usually dependent on wealth –with teenagers from higher
income families using iPods and those from lower income
Directories
families using mobile phones. Some teenagers use both to
Teenagers never use real directories (hard copy catalogues
listen to music, and there are always exceptions to the rule.
such as yellow pages). This is because real directories contain
listings for builders and florists, which are services that
A number of people use the music service iTunes (usually in
teenagers do not require. They also do not use services such
conjunction with iPods) to acquire their music (legally) but
as 118 118 because it is quite expensive and they can get the
again this is unpopular with many teenagers because of the
information for free on the internet, simply by typing it into
‘high price’ (79p per song). Some teenagers use a combination
Google.
of sources to obtain music, because sometimes the sound
quality is better on streaming sites but they cannot use these
Viral/Outdoor Marketing
sites whilst offline, so they would download a song then listen
Most teenagers enjoy and support viral marketing, as often it
to it on music streaming sites (separate from the file).
creates humorous and interesting content. Teenagers see
adverts on websites (pop ups, banner ads) as extremely
Cinema
annoying and pointless, as they have never paid any attention
Teenagers visit the cinema quite often, regardless of what is on.
to them and they are portrayed in such a negative light that no
Usually they will target a film first, and set out to see that, but
one follows them.
sometimes they will just go and choose when they get there.
This is because going to the cinema is not usually about the
Outdoor advertising usually does not trigger a reaction in
film, but the experience –and getting together with friends.
teenagers, but sometimes they will oppose it (the Benetton
Teenagers visit the cinema more often when they are in the
baby adverts). Most teenagers ignore conventional outside
lower end of teendom (13 and 14) but as they approach 15 they
advertising (billboards etc) because they have seen outside
go to the cinema a lot less. This is due to the pricing; at 15 they
adverts since they first stepped outside and usually it is not
have to pay the adult price, which is often double the child price.
targeted at them (unless it’s for a film). However, campaigns
Also, it is possible to buy a pirated DVD of the film at the time of
such as the GTA: IV characters painted on the side of buildings
release, and these cost much less than a cinema ticket so
generate interest because they are different and cause people
teenagers often choose this instead of going to the cinema.
to stop and think about the advert, maybe leading to further
Some teenagers choose to download the films off the internet,
research.
but this is not favourable as the films are usually bad quality,
have to be watched on a small computer screen and there is a
Music
chance that they will be malicious files and install a virus.
Teenagers listen to a lot of music, mostly whilst doing
something else (like travelling or using a computer). This
Devices
makes it hard to get an idea of the proportion of their time that is
spent listening to music.
Mobile Phones
99% of teenagers have a mobile phone and most are quite
They are very reluctant to pay for it (most never having bought
capable phones. The general view is that Sony Ericsson
a CD) and a large majority (8/10) downloading it illegally from
phones are superior, due to their long list of features, built in
file sharing sites. Legal ways to get free music that teenagers
walkman capability and value (£100 will buy a mid-high range
use are to listen to the radio, watch music TV channels (not
model). Teenagers due to the risk of it getting lost do not own
very popular, as these usually play music at certain times,
mobile phones over the £200 mark. As a rule, teenagers have
which is not always when teenagers are watching) and use
phones on pay as you go. This is because they cannot afford
music streaming websites (as I mentioned previously).
the monthly payments, and cannot commit to an 18-month
contract.
Almost all teenagers like to have a ‘hard copy’ of the song (a file
of the song that they can keep on their computer and use at
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Usually, teenagers only use their phone for texting, calling.
•
Computers: Every teenager has access to a basic
Features such as video messaging or video calling are not
computer with internet, but most teenagers computers are
used –because they are expensive, (you can get four regular
systems capable of only everyday tasks. Nearly all
texts for the price of one video message). Services such as
teenagers’ computers have Microsoft office installed, as it
instant messaging are used, but not by everyone. It usually
allows them to do school work at home. Most (9/10)
depends whether the phone is Wi-Fi compatible, because
computers owned by teenagers are PCs, because they
otherwise it is very expensive to get internet off the phone
are much cheaper than Macs and school computers run
network. As most teenagers’ phones have Bluetooth support,
Windows, so if a Mac is used at home compatibility issues
and Bluetooth is free, they utilise this feature often. It is used to
arise.
send songs and videos (even though it is illegal) and is another
way teenagers gain songs for free. Teenagers never use the
•
Games Consoles: Close to 1/3 of teenagers have a new
ringtone and picture selling services, which gained popularity in
(<2 ½ years old) games console, 50% having a Wii, 40%
the early 00s. This is because of the negative press that these
with an Xbox 360 and 10% with a PS3. The PS3 has such
services have attracted (where the charge £20 a week with no
a low figure because of its high price (£300) and similar
easy way to cancel the service) and the fact that they can get
features and games to an Xbox 360, which costs less
pictures and music on a computer –then transfer it to their
(£160). The Wii’s dominance is due to younger brothers
phones at no cost. Mobile email is not used as teenagers have
and sisters, they have a Wii and parents are not willing to
no need; they do not need to be connected to their inbox all the
pay for another console.
time as they don’t receive important emails. Teenagers do not
use the internet features on their mobiles as it costs too much,
What is Hot?
and generally, if they waited an hour they could use their home
internet and they are willing to wait as they don’t usually have
•Anything with a touch screen is desirable.
anything urgent to do.
•Mobile phones with large capacities for music.
•Portable devices that can connect to the internet (iPhones)
Teenagers do not upgrade their phone very often, with most
•Really big tellies
upgrading every two years. They usually upgrade on their
What Is Not?
birthday when their parents will buy them a new phone, as they
do not normally have enough money to do it themselves.
•Anything with wires
•Phones with black and white screens
•
Televisions: Most teenagers own a TV, with more and
•Clunky ‘brick’ phones
more upgrading to HD ready flat screens. However, many
•Devices with less than ten-hour battery life
are not utilising this HD functionality, as HD channels are
...
expensive extras which many families cannot justify the
added expenditure. Many of them don’t want to sign up to
HD broadcasting services, as adverts are shown on
standard definition broadcasts, so they can’t see the
difference. Most people have Virgin Media as a TV
provider. Some have sky and some have Freeview but
very few only have the first five channels (BBC One, BBC
Two, ITV, Channel Four and Channel Five).
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Disclosure Section
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and approves solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, research which has been prepared by any of its
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The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and
that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this
report: Edward Hill-Wood.
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Yell.
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Publicis Groupe, Reed Elsevier PLC, SES, TF1, Thomson Reuters Corp., Thomson Reuters PLC, United Business Media, Vivendi, Wolters Kluwer,
WPP Group Plc, Yell.
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Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Eutelsat Communications, Lagardere,
ProSiebenSat1, Publicis Groupe, Reed Elsevier PLC, SES, Thomson Reuters Corp., Thomson Reuters PLC, Vivendi, WPP Group Plc.
In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Antena 3, BSkyB, CTC
Media, Eutelsat Communications, Gestevision Telecinco, Havas, Informa, ITV, JCDecaux, Johnston Press, Lagardere, Pearson, ProSiebenSat1,
Publicis Groupe, Reed Elsevier PLC, SES, TF1, Thomson Reuters PLC, Trinity Mirror, United Business Media, Vivendi, Wolters Kluwer, WPP Group
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(as of June 30, 2009)
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Media & Internet
Coverage Universe
Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
% of
% of % of Rating
Stock Rating Category
Count
Total
Count
Total IBC
Category
Overweight/Buy
739 32%
235
38%
32%
Equal-weight/Hold
1022 45%
290
47%
28%
Not-Rated/Hold
31 1%
7
1%
23%
Underweight/Sell
485 21%
87
14%
18%
Total
2,277
619
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual
circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan
Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.
Analyst Stock Ratings
Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe,
on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage
universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the average total return of the
analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage
universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.
Analyst Industry Views
Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the
relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant
broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant
broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index;
Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index.
.
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7
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Industry Coverage:Media & Internet
Company (Ticker)
Rating (as of) Price (07/09/2009)
Edward Hill-Wood
Aegis Plc (AEGS.L)
U (01/28/2009)
83p
CTC Media (CTCM.O)
E (09/16/2008)
US$9.92
DMGT (DMGOa.L)
E (12/12/2008)
288p
Eutelsat Communications (ETL.PA)
O (08/03/2007)
€18.18
Havas (EURC.PA)
U (01/28/2009)
€1.75
IPSOS (ISOS.PA)
E (06/16/2008)
€17.82
JCDecaux (JCDX.PA)
U (04/23/2009)
€10.9
Johnston Press (JPR.L)
E (03/15/2006)
17p
Lagardere (LAGA.PA)
E (01/29/2007)
€22.9
Publicis Groupe (PUBP.PA)
E (10/23/2003)
€20.52
SES (SESFd.PA)
O (12/01/2006)
€13.18
Trinity Mirror (TNI.L)
O (08/01/2008)
60p
WPP Group Plc (WPP.L)
U (01/28/2009)
392p
Yell (YELL.L)
O (07/24/2008)
22p
Julien Rossi
Antena 3 (A3TV.MC)
U (11/06/2006)
€5.15
Gestevision Telecinco (TL5.MC)
E (09/29/2008)
€5.73
M6 (MMTP.PA)
O (04/28/2009)
€12.21
Mediaset (MS.MI)
E (07/09/2009)
€3.86
ProSiebenSat1 (PSMG_p.DE)
E (06/10/2008)
€3.52
SeLoger.com (SLGC.PA)
E (01/29/2008)
€19.8
TF1 (TFFP.PA)
E (04/28/2009)
€7.43
Patrick Wellington
BSkyB (BSY.L)
E (04/21/2009)
478p
ITV (ITV.L)
E (07/14/2008)
34p
Informa (INF.L)
O (12/17/2008)
220p
Mecom (MEC.L)
E (12/13/2007)
1p
Pearson (PSON.L)
E (05/22/2009)
587p
Reed Elsevier NV (ELSN.AS)
O (02/04/2009)
€7.87
Reed Elsevier PLC (REL.L)
E (06/18/2009)
458p
Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI.TO) E
(03/26/2009)
C$32.44
Thomson Reuters PLC (TRIL.L)
O (05/18/2009)
1,704p
United Business Media (UBM.L)
E (03/26/2009)
372p
Vivendi (VIV.PA)
E (03/17/2009)
€17.02
Wolters Kluwer (WLSNc.AS)
E (03/26/2009)
€12.4
Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
© 2009 Morgan Stanley
Document Outline
