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YUDHOYONO/KALLA WIN BROAD SUPPORT,
NARROWER CONSTITUENCIES MATTER FOR OTHER MAJOR TICKETS
Jakarta, 7 July 2004
Broad Support for Yudhoyono/Kalla
The first-round frontrunners in Monday’s presidential election in Indonesia, Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Jusuf Kalla, garnered support from a broad cross-
section of Indonesian society.
From a partisan standpoint, SBY/Kalla both managed to retain 88% of the Democrat
Party’s April voters as well as draw significant support from Indonesians who voted
for the six other major parties in the legislative elections. For instance, 30% of
Golkar’s voters, 28% each of PPP’s and PKB’s voters, 24% of PKS’s voters, 13% of
PDI-P’s voters and 10% of PAN’s voters chose SBY/Kalla over their party’s ticket.
SBY/Kalla was also the only ticket that garnered significant support from voters who
affiliate with both of Indonesia’s major Muslim organizations: Nahdlatul Ulama (NU)
and Muhammadiyah. Thirty-two percent of NU voters and 21% of Muhammadiyah
voters chose SBY/Kalla.
Finally, this ticket also received the broadest cross-section of support from
Indonesian voters of all educational levels. For the other four tickets, there was a
clear pattern of support: Megawati Soekarnoputri/Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto/
Salahuddin Wahid and Hamzah Haz/Agum Gumelar all enjoyed greater levels of
support among voters with lower levels of education, while Amien Rais/Siswono
Yudo Husodo experienced the reverse pattern.
Narrower Constituencies Matter for Other Major Tickets
The voter attitude survey also indicated that vice-presidential choices and the
support of parties other than those officially nominating a ticket had a significant
impact on the outcome of Monday’s first round.
For instance, when voters were asked whether they made their electoral choices
based on the presidential or the vice-presidential candidates, a surprising 33%
indicated that both candidates mattered – in addition to the approximately 50% of
voters who focused solely on the presidential candidate.
For example, in addition to Wiranto’s core voters from Golkar, the next largest vote
bloc came from PKB voters, suggesting that his choice of running mate helped boost
his support. In contrast, Hasyim Muzadi does not appear to have given Megawati a
significant advantage with NU voters. The survey shows that while 49% of PKB
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voters chose Wiranto/Wahid, only 16% supported Megawati/Hasyim. In addition,
while only one in five NU-affiliated voters chose Megawati/Hasyim, approximately
two-thirds supported Wiranto/Wahid and SBY/Kalla in equal proportions.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) was the only one of the seven major parties not
fielding a presidential or vice-presidential candidate. In the final days of campaigning,
the party decided to endorse Amien/Siswono. The support of PKS voters boosted
this ticket’s vote, as PKS voters were the second largest source of support after
Amien’s own National Mandate Party (PAN).
Methodology
This survey was conducted with a total of 4,511 voters by LP3ES-NDI election
monitors at 1,719 polling stations on election day by interviewing four randomly-
selected voters per polling station. These polling stations were the same ones
selected for a statistically-significant national sample for the Quick Count.
Approximately 30% of the respondents refused to reveal their preference for a ticket
in the presidential election; these respondents have been removed from this
analysis. The margin of error for the results shown in the accompanying tables is
plus or minus 1.5 percentage point at a 95% confidence level.
For further information, please contact:
Andy Agung Prihatna
Researcher, LP3ES
Phone: 021-5630233; 021-5674211
Mobile: 0811 89 33 40
Email: penelitian1@lp3es.or.id
For more data please visit: www.jurdil.org
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APPENDIX
Table 1. Political Parties Supporters’ Preference
Wiranto- Megawati-
Rais-
SBY-
Hamzah -
Wahid
Muzadi
Siswono
Kalla
Gumelar Total
Golkar
55%
8% 6% 31%
1% 100%
PDIP 7%
74%
5%
13%
1% 100%
PKB
49% 16% 6%
28%
2% 100%
PPP
14% 14% 15% 28% 29%
100%
PD 5%
4%
3%
88%
0% 100%
PKS 9%
9%
57% 24% 1% 100%
PAN 5%
5%
79% 10% 0% 100%
PBB 13%
7%
18%
60%
2% 100%
PDS 6%
55%
0%
39%
0% 100%
PBR
32%
5% 27% 32%
5% 100%
Others 17%
27%
12%
43%
1%
100%
Not vote yet
13%
24%
15%
41%
7%
100%
Abstainers 12%
31%
28%
29%
1%
100%
Refuse to answer
22%
20%
21%
34%
3%
100%
Do not know/do
not answer
18% 22% 20% 38% 2%
100%
Total 25%
24%
18%
32%
2%
100%
Table 2. Political Parties Support to Presidential Candidates
Wiranto- Megawati-
Rais-
SBY-
Hamzah -
Wahid
Muzadi
Siswono
Kalla
Gumelar Total
Golkar
56%
8% 8% 24%
7% 25%
PDIP 6%
60%
5% 8% 5%
19%
PKB
18%
6% 3% 8% 6%
9%
PPP 3%
3%
4%
4%
60%
5%
PD 2%
2%
2%
27%
2% 10%
PKS 2%
3%
23%
5% 4%
7%
PAN 2%
2%
37%
3% 1%
8%
PBB
1% 0% 1% 3% 1%
1%
PDS
0% 3% 0% 1% 0%
1%
PBR
1% 0% 1% 1% 2%
1%
Others
3% 5% 3% 6% 2%
4%
Not vote yet
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
1%
Abstainers 1% 3% 3% 2% 1%
2%
Refuse to answer
4%
4%
5%
5%
5%
5%
Do not know/do
not
answer 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%
3%
Total
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100%
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Tabel 3. Affiliation with Islamic Organizations and the Presidential Candidates
Muhamma-
NU
diyah Others
None Total
Wiranto-Salahudin Wahid
33%
13% 20% 23% 26%
Megawati-Hasyim
Muzadi 22% 11% 13% 20% 20%
Amien Rais-Siswono Y.H
11%
54%
26% 20% 19%
S.B Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla
32% 21% 36% 36% 33%
Hamzah Haz-Agum Gumelar
3%
2%
5%
2%
3%
Total 100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
