Future Technologies, To D A Y/'s Choices
Future Technologies,
To d a y’s Choices
N a n o t e c h n o l o g y, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics;
A technical, political and institutional map of
emerging technologies.
Alexander Huw Arnall
Department of Environmental Science and Te c h n o l o g y
Environmental Policy and Management Group
Faculty of Life Sciences
Imperial College London
University of London
A report for the Greenpeace Environmental Tr u s t
July 2003
Greenpeace Environmental Tr u s t
Canonbury Villas
London N1 2PN
www.greenpeace.org.uk
ISBN 1-903907-05-5
Published by Greenpeace Environmental Tr u s t
Canonbury Villas, London N1 2PN
ISBN 1-903907-05-5
Printed on 100% recycled paper
C o n t e n t s
List of Ta b l e s
2
3.
Artificial Intelligence
and Robotics
Abbreviations and Acronyms
3
3 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
42
3 . 1 . 1
About AI and robotics
42
F o r e w o r d
4
3 . 1 . 2
Where are we now?
42
Dr Doug Parr, Greenpeace Chief Scientist
3 . 2
Aspects of Research
A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s
9
3 . 2 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
43
3 . 2 . 2
L e a r n i n g
44
1 .
I n t r o d u c t i o n
3 . 2 . 3
Reasoning about plans,
1 . 1
About nanotechnology,
programs and action
45
a rtificial intelligence and robotics
10
3 . 2 . 4
Logical AI
45
1 . 2
R e p o rt structure
10
3 . 2 . 5
C o l l a b o r a t i o n
45
1 . 3
Key references
11
3 . 2 . 6
P e r c e p t i o n
46
3 . 2 . 7
Human–computer interaction
46
2 .
N a n o t e c h n o l o g y
3 . 2 . 8
Public funding
46
2 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
12
2 . 1 . 1
About nanotechnology
13
3 . 3
A p p l i c a t i o n s
2 . 1 . 2
Where are we now?
13
3 . 3 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
49
3 . 3 . 2
Intelligent simulation systems
49
2 . 2
Research and Development
3 . 3 . 3
Intelligent information resources
50
2 . 2 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
14
3 . 3 . 4
Intelligent project coaches
50
2 . 2 . 2
Novel materials
14
3 . 3 . 5
R o b o t i c s
52
2 . 2 . 3
N a n o t u b e s
14
3 . 3 . 6
Corporate funding
53
2 . 2 . 4
Tools and fabrication
16
2 . 2 . 5
Public funding for
3 . 4
Reality and Hype
research and development
18
3 . 4 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
54
3 . 4 . 2
Barriers to strong AI
54
2 . 3
Applications and Markets
3 . 4 . 3
A future for strong AI?
55
2 . 3 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
21
2 . 3 . 2
I n f o r m a t i c s
22
3 . 5
C o n c e r n s
2 . 3 . 3
Pharmaceuticals and medicine
25
3 . 5 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
56
2 . 3 . 4
E n e r g y
27
3 . 5 . 2
Predictive intelligence
56
2 . 3 . 5
D e f e n c e
29
3 . 5 . 3
AI and robotic autonomy
57
2 . 3 . 6
Corporate funding
31
3 . 6
D i s c u s s i o n
59
2 . 4
Reality and Hype
2 . 4 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
32
4 .
C o n c l u s i o n
60
2 . 4 . 2
Molecular nanotechnology
33
2 . 4 . 3
Fundamental barriers to these visions 35
E n d n o t e s
62
2 . 5
C o n c e r n s
R e f e r e n c e s
63
2 . 5 . 1
I n t r o d u c t i o n
35
2 . 5 . 2
Environmental concerns
36
2 . 5 . 3
Socio-political concerns
37
2 . 5 . 4
Public acceptance of nanotechnology 39
2 . 5 . 5
The regulation debate
40
2 . 6
D i s c u s s i o n
41
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
1
List of Ta b l e s
Table 1:
Summary of the major nanomaterials currently in research and
development and their potential applications.
Table 2:
Applications for new materials and devices resulting from self-assembly
and self-organisation.
Table 3:
World-wide government funding for nanotechnology
research and development.
Table 4:
Breakdown of spending on the US’s National Nanotechnology
Initiative from 2001–2003.
Table 5:
Top five government spending on nanotechnology in the Far East in 2002.
Table 6:
Estimated Japanese government nanotechnology research
and development expenditures.
Table 7:
Top six European government nanotechnology spending from 1998–2000.
Table 8:
Summary of future estimated global markets in nanotechnology.
Table 9:
Anticipated technological computing developments for 2001–2014.
Table 10:
Maturity of lithography options.
Table 11:
Summary of application areas for informatics.
Table 12:
Summary of application areas for nanoscale pharmaceuticals and medicine.
Table 13:
Summary of applications for energy processing.
Table 14:
US historical funding for technology transitioning into the marketplace.
2
A b b r e v i a t i o n s
and Acronyms
AAAI
American Association
IT
information technology
of Artificial Intelligence
MEMS micro-electrical-mechanical systems
AI
artificial intelligence
METI
Ministry of Economy,
ANN
artificial neural network
Trade and Industry
ASIMO Advanced Step in
MEXT Ministry of Education,
Innovative Mobility
Culture, Sports, Science
and Technology
CBEN
Centre for Biological and
Environmental Nanotechnology
MIT
Massachusetts Institute
of Technology
CMOS complementary metal oxide
semiconductor
MNT
molecular nanotechnology
CNID
Centre for Nanoscience
NASA
National Aeronautics and
Innovation for Defence
Space Administration
DARPA Defence Advanced
NBIC
nanoscience, biotechnology,
Research Project Agency
information technology and
cognitive science
DoD
Department of Defence
NII
National Institute of Informatics
DRAM dynamic random access memory
NNI
National Nanotechnology Initiative
DTI
Department of Trade and Industry
NSF
National Science Foundation
DDT
dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
PC
personal computers
EC
European Commission
PV
photovoltaic
EU
European Union
QIP
quantum information processing
EELD
Evidence Extraction and
Link Discovery
RAM
random access memory
EPA
Environmental Protection Agency
RWCP
Real World Computing Project
EPSRC Engineering and Physical
SCI
Scientific Citation Index
Sciences Research Council
TIA
Total Information Awareness
FP
Framework Programme
UCAV
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle
GM
genetically modified
ISS
Intelligent Simulation System
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
3
F o r e w o r d
Dr Doug Parr, Greenpeace Chief Scientist
Why is Greenpeace interested in new
l a rgely determine how a new technology is
technologies? New technologies feature
used. Any technology placed in the hands of
prominently in our ongoing campaigns
those who care little about the possible
against genetic modified (GM) crops and
e n v i ronmental, health, or social impacts is
nuclear power; however, they are also an
potentially disastrous. When entire national
integral part of our solutions to
economies are adapted to take advantage of
environmental problems, including renewable
the economic opportunities off e red by new
energy technologies, such as solar, wind and
technologies, it is a matter of huge public
wave power, and waste treatment
i m p o rtance, and the potential enviro n m e n t a l
technologies, such as mechanical–biological
and social consequences are clearly of
treatment. So while Greenpeace accepts and
i m p o rtance to Greenpeace. Global
relies upon the merits of many new
technologies can, particularly in the long term ,
technologies, we campaign against other
be of greater significance than Prime Ministers
technologies that have a potentially profound
or presidents. Will the power aff o rded to
negative impact on the environment.
people and organisations in control of these
new technologies be properly controlled? If a
Greenpeace is in the business of evaluating
single person – a computer- v i rus writer or a
both future and current threats. Our mission
biochemist dealing with anthrax – can cause
must be to survey upcoming innovations for
huge political and financial problems, how
several reasons. First, we are conscious of
much more damage could those with more
unintended (but foreseeable) consequences
re s o u rces do? Thorough public scrutiny before
that impact on the environment. No one
financial or political commitments to new
intended, for example, that pesticide use in
technologies become irreversible could be
the 1970s and 1980s would have the impact
hugely beneficial, and surely a matter of
on wildlife that it did. Becoming aware of,
democratic rights.
and ultimately preventing, the environmental
downside of technological developments is
In April and May 2002, Greenpeace and
clearly a core interest – indeed, the
New Scientist magazine co-sponsored a series
‘precautionary principle’ has become an
of four debates on the impacts of new
important part of international law, such as
technologies, entitled Science, Technology
the Biosafety Protocol on GM organisms.
and the Future. These debates generated
There is also increasing interest in the wider
much interest, but the difficulties in locating
concept of precaution, which is now
speakers highlighted the fact that few people
recognised to include the need for wider
could give an overview of either
participation in the control and direction of
developments in these technologies or their
technological innovation. This kind of
impact in the physical, political and
process produces not only a better evidence
commercial domains. Even more problematic
base, but also more informed decisions.
was identifying what the initial technological
Unintended consequences of a particular new
products would be and their social or
technology cannot always be foreseen;
environmental consequences.
however, if these consequences become a
collective problem, it is unreasonable to
This prompted Greenpeace to commission a
expect collective responsibility if the decision
comprehensive review of nanotechnology and
to proceed with the technology was made by
artificial intelligence/robotics developments
an elite few.
from an organisation with a reputation for
technological expertise – Imperial College
Second, and more subtly, the interests of those
London. We asked them to document
who own and control the new technologies
existing applications and to analyse current
4
research and development (R&D), the main
At the time of commissioning this report,
players behind these developments, and the
civil society critiques of the immense R&D
associated incentives and risks.
and commercial efforts taking place in
nanotechnology were quite sparse, but
New Technologies in Context
already there are signs that this is changing.
Beyond the contents of this report, the
In the wake of the furore over genetic
political and social processes surrounding the
modification, the idea of a ‘public debate’
introduction of technologies are very
about new technologies is in vogue, but this
important. For example, compare the public
has to be meaningful or it will simply
response to GM crops in Europe to the wide
promote cynicism.
acceptance of mobile phones. The ‘social
constitution’ of the technology appears key
If public dialogue on science is to mean
to its acceptability. This social constitution
anything, the approach of nanotechnology is
provides the answers to questions such as:
a huge opportunity. Instead of waiting for
potential adverse reactions, the scientific
• Who is in control?
community could be proactive. Why not hold
a citizens jury to determine scientific
• Where can I get information that I trust?
priorities on nanotechology? From each of
the agricultural, defence, energy,
• On what terms is the technology being
pharmaceutical, and information technology
introduced?
(IT) sectors (and the numerous cross-overs),
the jury could examine current research and
• What risks apply, with what certainty, and
its potential. It could suggest which areas
to whom?
need to be highest priority. It would look at
the potential short- and long-term
• Where do the benefits fall?
applications and the ‘blue skies’ element
necessary for any research programme.
• Do the risks and benefits fall to the same
Research councils such as the Biotechnology
people (e.g. mobile phones are popular,
and Biological Sciences Research Council
while mobile phone masts are not)?
(BBSRC) and the Engineering and Physical
Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) in the
• Who takes responsibility for resulting
UK could commit to considering results and
problems?
utilizing the insights from the findings of
such a jury. If dialogue between science and
The evidence presented in this report suggests
society is to be more than just a sophisticated
that, depending on the development pathway,
means of engineering user-acceptance,
some aspects of nanotechnology might get a
research councils must adopt this kind of
rocky ride, as its social constitution is more
participatory initiative to allow ordinary
like that of GM crops than mobile phones. In
people to have a say in the types and
particular, future disputes surrounding new
trajectories of technological innovation.
technology seem certain in the light of
globalised, rapid technology transfer. The
N a n o t e c h n o l o g y
general public is also increasingly unwilling
The most common definition of
to accept the word of a company or
nanotechnology is that of manipulation,
Government (on the basis of brutal
observation and measurement at a scale of
experience), on the risks and benefits of
less than 100 nanometres (one nanometre is
technology, particularly as science and
one millionth of a millimetre). However, the
commerce become more closely linked.
emergence of a multi-disciplinary field called
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
5
‘nanotechnology’ arises from new
industry – to increase storage densities on
instrumentation only recently available, and
microchips – and in the pharmaceutical
a flow of public money into a great number
industry to improve drug targeting and
of techniques and relevant academic
diagnostic aids. Both sectors expect that in
disciplines in what has been described as an
the future nanotechnology will provide a
‘arms race’ between governments.
dramatic leap forward, but that for now the
Nanotechnology is really a convenient label
products seem relatively modest compared to
for a variety of scientific disciplines which
the preceding hype. Other areas of future
serves as a way of getting money from
applications appear to be within the energy
Government budgets. The figures involved
sector and defence. With regard to the
are becoming very large; indeed this report
former, more effective solar cells and highly
indicates that over US$2 billion was spent by
efficient lighting hold promise on a ten-year
national governments in 2002, and that these
time-scale. In the latter, there is no shortage
figures will be even larger in 2003. Although
of ideas for military applications and at least
the US is said to be the leader, the Japanese
two new institutions in the US have been
government is expected to spend more than
created expressly for the purpose of
the US in 2003. It is also thought that 2002
exploiting nanotechnology for military gain.
will prove to be the year when corporate
funding matched or exceeded state funds.
Notice that none of these applications deal
This is because transnational companies
with the far more distant but highly-
realise that nanotechnology is likely to
publicised prospect of replicator robots or
disrupt their current products and processes,
the so-called ‘general assembler’ – a nano-
and because the investment community has
machine which would produce anything
decided that nanotechnology is the ‘next big
desired given the right raw-materials, and
thing’. Three new business alliances have
which formed some of the ideas behind
recently been formed in the US, Europe and
Michael Crichton's novel, Prey. These
Asia, whose sole purpose is to translate
applications are currently a long way off due
research into economically viable products.
to the difficulties involved in engineering
The UK Government’s Department of Trade
chemical building blocks, information
and Industry estimates that the market for
management, and systems design. The
nanotechnology applications will reach over
challenges are formidable but even so, two
US$100 billion by 2005. There is now a
US companies are known to be researching
great deal of momentum behind
molecular assembly. The ‘runaway replicator’
nanotechnology that has built up into a force
concerns (also known as the ‘grey goo’
which might already struggle to incorporate
scenario) raised by Crichton’s novel are
the outcomes of organised public debate, or
hideous, but the prospects of it remain way
meet well-founded public concerns, although
off, and some experts suggest that it would
by no means will all of the developments be
be very difficult to achieve this deliberately,
controversial – many will not.
let alone by accident (but see below).
The difficulty in making predictions about
All of this suggests that the development of
the future is that R&D could still take
nanotechnology will go through various
several different directions, and the materials
different stages, and thus societal debate will
and processes being developed are
need to be an ongoing process rather than a
technology-pushed rather than market-led.
single outcome. There will need to be
After the hype about possible applications,
continual incorporation of the insights from
the first real nanotechnology products are
such a debate into policy and product
starting to appear in the semiconductor
development as the prospects become more
6
tangible. Already some concerns are
flagged up by the ETC group, and this
becoming evident. Some new materials may
implies the pursuit of income streams from
constitute new classes of non-biodegradable
those already possessing disposable income.
pollutant about which we have little
Is the future of nanotechnology then, a
understanding. Additionally, little work has
plaything of the already-rich? Will the much
been done to ascertain the possible effects of
talked about ‘digital-divide’ be built upon,
nanomaterials on living systems, or the
exacerbating the inequities present in current
possibility that nanoparticles could slip past
society through a ‘nano-divide’?
the human immune system. Carbon
Nanotechnology can only be made available
nanotubes are already found in cars and
to the poor and to developing countries if the
some tennis rackets, but there is virtually no
technology remains open to use. Already a
environmental or toxicological data on them.
company in Toronto has applied for patents
Despite this, of the US$710 million being
on the carbon molecule
spent by the US Government on
Buckminsterfullerene. If ownership of
nanotechnology, only US$500,000 is being
molecules is allowed, the nanotechnology
spent on environmental impact assessment,
techniques for the precise manipulation of
even though a major feature of the product
atoms open up a whole new terrain for
pipeline is that it consists of new materials.
private ownership. As with genetic
Current proposals at EU level on synthetic
engineering where genes have become
chemicals regulation are belatedly ensuring
controlled by patents, things that were once
that a rule of ‘no data, no market’ will apply
considered universally owned could become
to the basic information about hazardous
controlled by a few.
properties of such chemicals. Knowing the
basics about the dangers of new materials is
A rtificial Intelligence and Robotics
a pre-requisite for effective environmental
Unlike the situation for nanotechnology,
responsibility. From the Greenpeace
researchers in artificial intelligence (AI) feel
perspective, this suggests that whilst ‘societal
that their work has suffered because of
debate’ is highly desirable, it is a bit of a
‘public discussion’ – hype might be a better
luxury if the same old mistakes are being
term – in the 1960s and 1980s which
repeated by a new generation of
adversely affected advances in the field after
technologists. There is no need for grand,
the delivery did not live up to expectations
new mechanisms of public involvement to
and funding dropped. Many researchers now
point out the blindingly obvious. With cause
feel that the goal of mimicking the human
for concern, and with the precautionary
ability to solve problems and achieve goals in
principle applied, these materials should be
the real world (the so-called ‘strong AI’) is
considered hazardous until shown otherwise.
neither likely nor desirable because a long
series of conceptual breakthroughs is
Still other concerns are evident in the social
required. Instead the focus is on ‘weak AI’ –
arena that revolve around the uses to which
applications that model some, but not all,
the new technology is put – closely linked
aspects of human behaviour.
with ownership and control. One possible
dystopian future would be the shift of the
The number of applications for weak AI is
control of nanotechnology towards being
growing. AI-related patents in the US
driven by military needs. This report does
increased from 100–1700 between 1989 and
not generally support such a prospect at
1999, with a total of 3900 patents
present, although military interest in
mentioning related terms. AI systems are
nanotechnology is considerable.
generally embedded within larger systems –
Alternatively, corporate control has been
applications can be found in video games,
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
7
speech recognition, and in the ‘data mining’
applications necessarily arise through classical
business sector. Full speech recognition,
design and programming techniques, rather
leading to voice-led Internet access or
than new approaches that aim to allow
recognition in security applications, is
p rogrammes to train and evolve. An example
anticipated relatively soon. However, the
of such an alternative approach may be
ability to extract meaning from natural
possible through artificial neural networks,
language recognition remains way off. The
although these systems are so complex that it
data mining market uses software to extract
is not generally possible to follow the
general regularities from online data, dealing
reasoning processes that they exhibit.
in particular with large volumes or patterns
humans may not look for. Such systems
The funding of AI research is far more
could be used to predict consumer
difficult to uncover than for nanotechnology
preferences or extract trends from market
as no existing overview seems to exist on the
data such as patents and news articles. Sales
topic, and information on spending is usually
already have reached US$3.5 billion and are
placed under a general computer science
anticipated to be US$8.8 billion in 2004.
budget. Industry reportedly leads, with two-
Weak AI is already behind systems that
thirds of spending on research in computer
detect ‘deviant’ behaviour in credit card use,
science, even though public spending has
which has lead to improved credit card fraud
proved an important source of funding in the
detection. Potential applications of these
past, largely because of the field’s high-risk
techniques to state-security situations are
conceptual challenges. Nevertheless it is clear
likely to be controversial (see below).
that the US is the leader in spending. It leads,
in part, due to military-related institutions,
The field of robotics is closely linked to that
such as the Defence Advanced Research
of AI, although definitional issues abound.
Project Agency (DARPA) and the National
‘Giving AI motor capability’ seems a
Aeronautics and Space Administration
reasonable definition, but most people would
(NASA) who used AI systems and robotics
not regard a cruise missile as a robot even
for the exploration of Mars. Japan and
though the navigation and control techniques
Europe are also investing (and indeed
draw heavily on robotics research. After the
collaborating) in this field, but are playing
hype from the 1960s rebounded on
catch-up with the US, although Japan
investment (as for AI), experts moved away
remains the leader in using industrial robots.
from the idea of complete automation as it
was neither desirable nor feasible. Instead,
Far more likely than the tyrannical take-over
more practical applications have been found,
of society by hyper-intelligent robots (a
such as in cervical smear screening and,
frequent science fiction theme) or concerns
predictably, in the military sphere, where
about ‘rights’ for intelligent machines, a
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) are
more likely issue will be the use of AI
being developed, with the hope of fielding
systems to spy on people. The US
them by 2008.
Department of Defense has established a
group to look at information gathering and
Despite these developments, current AI
analysis on a huge scale, including
systems are, it is argued, fundamentally
government and commercial sources, which
incapable of exhibiting intelligence as we
would use AI systems to scrutinise the data
understand it. Current AI is only as smart as
and extract information about people,
the programmer who wrote the code. AI
relationships, organisations, and activities for
s o f t w a re designers point out that existing
counter-terrorism purposes. The concerns
computer arc h i t e c t u re means that most AI
about infringing personal privacy or possible
8
misuse of the data are clear. Furthermore, the
Equally, nanotechnology may converge much
use of computer systems for the US National
sooner with biotechnology as it uses the tools
Missile Defence, and possibly for UCAVs,
and structures of biological systems to
has created a different moral dilemma in that
generate tiny machines. Although the
“they will be the first machines given the
prospect of general assemblers may be quite
responsibility for killing human beings
distant, self-replicating ‘machines’ that use
without human direction or supervision”.
the tools of biology – and look more like
living things than machines – might be closer
AI and robotics are likely to continue to cre e p
at hand through the convergence of bio- and
into our lives without us really noticing.
nanotechnologies. ‘Grey goo’ might not be a
U n f o rt u n a t e l y, many of the applications
realistic prospect; ‘green goo’ may be closer
appear to be taking place amongst agencies,
to the mark – quite how close is difficult to
p a rticularly the military, that do not re a d i l y
judge on the basis of the evidence in this
respond to public concern, however well
report. Any creation that posed the prospect
a rticulated or thought through.
of being self-replicating would need to be
handled with immense care to ensure
The Future
environmental protection.
Nanotechnology and AI/robotics, together
with biotechnology, may well be on a
Whether any of the technological futures
convergent path. In 2001 the National
being scoped out in laboratories are what
Science Foundation held a large workshop to
our general public would like is a question
look at the implications of this convergence
that can only be answered by asking them. If
and the implications for human abilities and
those concerned with the development of
productivity. AI could be boosted by
new technologies, and nanotechnology in
nanotechnology innovations in computing
particular, are convinced that the benefits
power. Applications of a future
they hope to generate will withstand scrutiny
nanotechnology general assembler would
they should have no concerns about engaging
require some AI and robotics innovations.
and winning public support.
A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s
Many thanks to my supervisors, Timothy
Olivier Bosch of the International Institute
Foxon and Robert Gross, Imperial College
for Strategic Studies (IISS) for allowing me to
London, for their guidance and advice in
interview them.
completing this report; to Douglas Parr,
Greenpeace, for commissioning the work;
Finally, I am grateful to Jon Glick of the
and to Ken Green, University of Manchester
American Association for Artificial
Institute of Science and Technology, for his
Intelligence (AAAI); Andre Gsponer of the
review and commentary.
Independent Scientific Research Institute
(ISRI); Hope Shand of the ETC Group; and
In addition, I would to thank Gareth Parry,
Loretta Anania, Ramon Compano, and
Jenny Nelson, and Murray Shanahan of
Jakub Wejcher of the European Community’s
Imperial College London; Abid Khan of the
Future and Emerging Technologies
London Centre for Nanotechnology; and
programme (EC FET) for their assistance.
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
9
1. Introduction
1.1 About nanotechnology,
1.2 Report structure
artificial intelligence and robotics
This report is divided in two main parts: the
The aim of this report is to provide basic,
first examines the field of nanotechnology,
background information of global scope on
and the second looks at AI and robotics.
three emerging technologies: nanotechnology,
Furthermore, both parts are divided into six
artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics.
equivalent sections. The Section 1 of each
According to the Department of Trade and
presents an introduction. Following this, the
Industry (DTI), it is important to consider
current status of research and development
these emerging technologies now because
(R&D) is described for both fields in Section
their emergence on the market is anticipated
2, with particular attention being paid to the
to ‘affect almost every aspect of our lives’
areas of research attracting the most
during the coming decades (DTI, 2002).
attention. Much of the work described here
Thus, a first major feature of these three
cuts across traditional academic boundaries
disciplines is product diversity. In addition, it
and contains a significant technical element.
is possible to characterise them as disruptive,
This is because a firm understanding of the
enabling and interdisciplinary.
nature of the technology itself is essential in
understanding its future impact (Holister,
D i s ruptive technologies are those that displace
2002). In addition, the perspective taken here
older technologies and enable radically new
is global in scope since governments and
generations of existing products and pro c e s s e s
corporations world-wide are investing in
to take over. They can also enable whole new
these areas and research is active on several
classes of products not previously feasible.
continents. This suggests that, with
The implications for industry are considerable:
international flows of information,
companies that do not adapt rapidly face
technological innovation will be
obsolescence and decline, whereas those that
transboundary in nature.
do sit up and take notice will be able to do
new things in almost every conceivable
The applications and markets of these
technological discipline (DTI, 2002).
emerging technologies are described in
Nanotechnology is also an enabling
Section 3. Specifically, this report aims to
technology and, like electricity, the intern a l
highlight the kinds of products which have
combustion engine, or the Internet, its impact
already been introduced into the global
on society will be broad and often
market and those applications due for
unanticipated. Unlike these examples,
introduction in the short- and medium-term.
h o w e v e r, nanotechnology is generally
In addition, the range of market values that
c o n s i d e red harder to ‘pin down’ – it is a
are currently being anticipated are pointed
general capability that impacts on many
out, although these figures are necessarily
scientific disciplines (Holister, 2002). In
highly speculative. Underpinning these R&D
addition, the interd i s c i p l i n a ry features of these
and application developments is a wide array
new technologies result in another driving
of key players. While interest in these
factor for innovation and discovery: they can
technologies is increasing rapidly, particularly
bring together people from traditionally
in nanotechnology, most of the recent growth
separate academic groups. For example, the
of interest comes from those with a strategic
boundaries between physical sciences and life
interest, such as governments, venture
sciences are blurring within these fields.
capitalists, large technology-orientated
corporations and scientists working in the
field (Holister, 2002).
10
One problem with many of the hundreds of
UK Strategy for Nanotechnology provides a
documents written about emerging
useful introduction to the field. In addition,
technologies every year is that they do not
Ramon Compano (2001) of the European
distinguish between science and science
Commission; Professors J.N. Hay and S.J.
fiction, let alone the desirable and
Shaw (2000) of the University of Surrey and
undesirable in terms of ethics, choice and
Defence Evaluation and Research Agency
safety (Ho, 2002b). Thus, Sections 4 and 5
(DERA); Paul Holister (2002) of CMP
aim to deal with some of these issues: Section
Cientifica; Ian Miles and Duncan Jarvis
4 separates out some of the hype from the
(2001) of the National Physical Laboratory
more visionary but solidly placed
(NPL); and Ottilia Saxl (2000) of the
applications, whereas Section 5 provides an
Institute of Nanotechnology have been used
account of the potential environmental and
extensively for construction of summary
social risks that such uses could pose in the
tables. Finally, the National Science
future. Finally, Section 6 highlights some of
Foundation (NSF) report, Societal
the key messages of each part.
Implications of Nanoscience and
Nanotechnology, supplies good information
1.3 Key references
on a wide range of issues (Roco and
This report has been compiled by consulting
Bainbridge, 2001). For the section on AI and
a wide variety of sources across the entire
Robotics, Barbara Grosz and Randall Davis
spectrum of the debate, from industry
– President and President-Elect of the
advocates to environmental and social
American Association for Artificial
pressure groups. In doing so, a number of
Intelligence (AAAI) – and Daniel Weld of the
sources have been particularly important. For
University of Washington provide some
the section on nanotechnology, the DTI’s
useful technical information.
(2002) New Dimensions for Manufacturing:
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
11
2. Nanotechnology
2.1 Introduction
‘anything box’ would take a molecular seed
containing instructions for building a pro d u c t
2 . 1 . 1 About nanotechnology
and use tiny nanobots or molecular machines
A major difficulty of characterising
to build it atom by atom (Miller, 2002).
nanotechnology is that the field does not
Indeed, as Forrest (1989) points out, ‘ t h e
stem from one established academic
development of [bottom-up] technology does
discipline (The Economist, 2002). In fact,
not depend upon on discovering new
there are a number of ways in which
scientific principles. The advances re q u i re d
nanotechnology may be defined. The most
a re engineering.’ In short, fully-fledged
common version regards nanoscience as ‘the
bottom-up nanotechnology promises nothing
ability to do things – measure, see, predict
less than complete control over the physical
and make – on the scale of atoms and
s t ru c t u re of matter – the same kind of contro l
molecules and exploit the novel properties
over the molecular and structural makeup of
found at that scale’ (DTI, 2002).
physical objects that a word pro c e s s o r
Traditionally, this scale is defined as being
p rovides over the form and content of text
between 0.1 and 100 nanometres (nm), 1 nm
(Reynolds, 2002).
being one-thousandth of a micron
(micrometre; mm), which is, in turn, one-
2 . 1 . 2 Where are we now?
thousandth of a millimetre (mm). However,
At present it is clear that this bottom-up
as will become clear in the later stages of this
‘dream’ is far from being realised. As Saxl
study, this definition is open to
(2000) notes: ‘Top-down and bottom-up can
interpretation, and may readily be applied to
be a measure of the level of advancement of
a number of different technologies that have
nanotechnology, and nanotechnology, as
no obvious common relationship (The
applied today, is still mainly in the top-down
Economist, 2002).
stage.’ This state of relative infancy is often
compared in the literature to the information
Another way to characterise nanotechnology
technology (IT) sector in the 1960s, or
is by distinguishing between the fabrication
biotechnology in the 1980s. So, with the
p rocesses of top-down and bottom-up. To p -
science fiction aspects of the debate rapidly
down technology refers to the ‘fabrication of
receding, industry has now necessarily
nanoscale stru c t u res by machining and
adopted much more realistic expectations
etching techniques’ (Saxl, 2000). However,
(pers. comm., Abid Khan, London Centre for
top-down means more than just
Nanotechnology, 6 Nov 2002.)
miniaturisation: at the nanoscale level
d i ff e rent laws of physics come into play,
This is not to say, however, that we have
p ro p e rties of traditional materials change,
long to wait before nanotechnology makes its
and the behaviours of surfaces start to
mark in the global market. In fact, current
dominate the behaviour of bulk materials.
industry jargon would probably describe
On the other hand, bottom-up technology –
nanotechnology as ‘coming on stream’. For,
often re f e rred to as molecular
although the underlying technologies and
nanotechnology (MNT) – applies to the
their applications are still at an early stage of
c reation of organic and inorganic stru c t u re s ,
development, there are applications emerging
atom by atom, or molecule by molecule
into the market that are likely to be making
(Saxl, 2000). It is this area of nanotechnology
a significant impact on the industrial scene
that has created the most excitement and
by 2006 (Miles and Jarvis, 2001). The best
p u b l i c i t y. In a mature nanotech world,
evidence of this move into commercialisation
m a c ro s t ru c t u res would simply be grown fro m
concerns the recent emergence of three
their smallest constituent components: an
alliances whose sole purpose is to translate
12
this underlying research into economically
2.2 Research and Development
viable products: the US NanoBusiness
Alliance, the Europe Nanobusiness
2 . 2 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
Association, and the Asia-Pacific
The absence of a universally accepted strict
Nanotechnology Forum. In addition to this,
definition of nanotechnology has allowed the
laboratories around the world are working
research emphasis to broaden, encompassing
on new approaches and on new ways to scale
many areas of work that have traditionally
up nanotechnology to industrial levels. For
been referred to as chemistry or biology
example, the first factories to manufacture
(DTI, 2002). Thus, the first major
carbon nanotubes and fullerenes are under
characteristic of activity grouped under this
construction in Japan (DTI, 2002).
section is that contemporary R&D cuts
across a wide range of industrial sectors.
In spite of these developments, there has
In some cases, major markets are fairly well
been criticism recently over the amount
defined. The food industry serves as a good
of hype and, consequently, funding that
example here, where there are significant
research into nanoscience and
drivers at work (pers. comm., Abid Khan,
nanotechnology has received. For example,
London Centre for Nanotechnology, 6 Nov
the much-heralded US National
2002). To illustrate, ‘smart’ wrappings for
Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) has been
the food industry (that indicate freshness or
criticised for using ‘nano’ as a convenient tag
otherwise) are close to the market (Saxl,
to attract funding for a whole range of new
2000). By 2006, beer packaging is
science and technologies (e.g. see Roy, 2002).
anticipated by industry to use the highest
This reinvention is one way of attracting
weight of nano-strengthened material, at
more money because politicians like to feel
3 million lbs., followed by meats and
they are putting money into something new
carbonated soft drinks. By 2011, meanwhile,
and exciting (pers. comm., Gareth Parry,
the total figure might reach almost 100
Imperial College London, 22 Nov 2002).
million lbs. (nanotechweb.org, 2002). In
For these reasons, the nanotechnology sector
other cases, important applications are
is far broader than you would usually expect
identified but the eventual market impacts
to see and the resulting lack of a clear
are more difficult to predict. For example,
definition is hampering meaningful
nanotechnology is anticipated to yield
discussion of its potential costs or benefits.
significant advances in catalyst technology.
Thus, if we use the standard definition given
If these potential applications are realised
above, we can say that nanoscience and
then the impact on society will be dramatic
technology have been around for several
as catalysts, arguably the most important
decades, particularly in research,
technology in our modern society, enable the
development, and manufacturing in IT.
production of a wide range of materials and
Rather, it is the wide availability of tools and
fuels (Saxl, 2000).
information to diverse scientific communities
that has generated the current interest in this
A second characteristic of current work in
area (Chaudhari, 2001).
this area is that the kinds of materials and
processes being developed are necessarily
‘technology pushed’: urged on by the
potential impacts of nanotechnology, the
R&D community is achieving rapid advances
in basic science and technology. This level of
scientific interest is gauged by Compano and
Hullman (2001) who examine the world-
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
13
wide number of publications in
impact of over US$340 billion within a
nanotechnology in the Science Citation Index
decade (Holister, 2002).
(SCI) database. They conclude that for the
period between 1989 and 1998 the average
2.2.3 Nanotubes
annual growth rate in the number of
Nanotubes provide a good example of how
publications is an ‘impressive’ 27%. This rise
basic R&D can take off into full-scale
in interest is not confined to a small number
market application in one specific area.
of central repositories however (Smith,
Described as ‘the most important material in
1996). Instead, research is spread across
nanotechnology today’ (Holister, 2002),
more than 30 countries that have developed
nanotubes are a new material with
nanotechnology activities and plans (Holister,
remarkable tensile strength. Indeed, taking
2002). In this way, Compano and Hullman
current technical barriers into account,
(2001) also examine the distribution of this
nanotube-based material is anticipated to
interest. Based upon their findings, the most
become 50–100 times stronger than steel at
active is the US, with roughly one-quarter of
one-sixth of the weight (Anton et al., 2001).
all publications, followed by Japan, China,
This development would dwarf the
France, the UK and Russia. These countries
improvements that carbon fibres brought to
alone account for 70% of the world’s
composites. Harry Kroto, who was awarded
scientific papers on nanotechnology. In
the Nobel Prize for the discovery of C60
particular, for China and Russia the shares
Buckminsterfullerene, states that such
are outstanding in comparison with their
advances will take ‘a long, long time’ to
general presence in the SCI database and
achieve (2010 Nanospace Odyssey lecture,
show the significance of nanoscience in their
Queen Mary University, 6 Jan 2003), the first
research systems.
applications of nanotubes being in composite
development. However, if such technologies
2.2.2 Novel materials
do eventually arrive, the results will be
The third major characteristic of activity
awesome: they will ‘be equivalent to James
grouped under this section concerns that fact
Watt’s invention of the condenser’, a
that nanotechnology is primarily about
development that kick-started the industrial
making things (Holister, 2002). For this
revolution. The concept of the space elevator
reason, most of the existing focus of R&D
serves as a good illustration of the kind of
centres on ‘nanomaterials’: novel materials
visionary thinking that recent nanotube
whose molecular structure has been
development has inspired. The idea of a ‘lift
engineered at the nanometre scale (DTI,
to the stars’ is not itself particularly new: a
2002). Indeed, Saxl (2000) states that:
Russian engineer, Yuri Artutanov, penned the
‘material science and technology is
idea of an elevator – perhaps powered by a
fundamental to a majority of the applications
laser that could quietly transport payloads
of nanotechnology.’ Thus, many of the
and people to a space platform – as early as
materials that follow (Table 1) involve either
1960 (cited in Cowen 2002). However, such
bulk production of conventional compounds
ideas have always been hampered by the lack
that are much smaller (and hence exhibit
of material strength necessary to make the
different properties) or new nanomaterials,
cable attachment. The nanotube may be the
such as fullerenes and nanotubes (ETC
key to overcoming this longstanding
Group, 2002a). The markets range of
obstacle, making the space elevator a reality
nanomaterials are considerable. Indeed,
in just 15 years time (Cowen, 2002). This
it has been estimated that, aided by
development, though, will rely on the
nanotechnology, novel materials and
successful incorporation of nanotubes into
processes can be expected to have a market
fibres or ribbons and successfully avoiding
14
Table 1: Summary of the major nanomaterials currently in research and development and their potential applications.
M a t e r i a l
P r o p e rt i e s
A p p l i c a t i o n s
Time-scale (to
market launch)
Clusters of atoms
Quantum wells
Ultra-thin layers – usually a few nanometres thick –
CD players have made use of quantum
Current – 5 years
of semiconductor material (the well) grown between
well lasers for several years. More
barrier material by modern crystal growth technologies
recent developments promise to make
(Saxl, 2000). The barrier materials trap electrons in the
these nanodevices commonplace in
ultra-thin layers, thus producing a number of useful
low-cost telecommunications and optics.
properties. These properties have led, for example, to
the development of highly efficient laser devices.
Quantum dots
Fluorescent nanoparticles that are invisible until ‘lit up’
Telecommunications, optics.
7–8 years
by ultraviolet light. They can be made to exhibit a range
of colours, depending on their composition
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
P o l y m e r s
Organic-based materials that emit light when an electric
Computing, energy conversion.
?
current is applied to them and vice versa
(pers. comm., Jenny Nelson, Imperial College London,
2 Dec 2002).
Grains that are less than 100nm in size
N a n o c a p s u l e s
Buckminsterfullerenes are the most well known
Many applications envisaged
Current – 2 years
example. Discovered in 1985, these C60 particles are
e.g. nanoparticulate dry lubricant
1nm in width.
for engineering (Saxl, 2000).
Catalytic nanoparticles
In the range of 1–10 nm, such materials were
Wide range of applications, including
Current – ?
in existence long before it was realised that they
materials, fuel and food production,
belonged to the realms of nanotechnology.
health and agriculture (Hay and
H o w e v e r, recent developments are enabling a given
S h a w, 2000).
mass of catalyst to present more surface area for
reaction, hence improving its performance (Hay and
S h a w, 2000). Following this, such catalytic nanoparticles
can often be regenerated for further use.
Fibres that are less than 100nm in diameter
Carbon nanotubes
Two types of nanotube exist: the single-wall carbon
Many applications are envisaged: space Current – 5 years
nanotubes, the so-called ‘Buckytubes’, and multilayer
and aircraft manufacture, automobiles
carbon nanotubes (Hay and Shaw, 2000). Both consist
and construction. Multi-layered
of graphitic carbon and typically have an internal
carbon nanotubes are already available
diameter of 5 nm and an external diameter of 10 nm.
in practical commercial quantities.
Described as the ‘most important material in
Buckytubes some way off large-scale
nanotechnology today’ (Holister, 2002), it has been
commercial production (Saxl, 2000).
calculated that nanotube-based material has the potential
to become 50–100 times stronger than steel at one sixth
of the weight.
Films that are less than 100nm in thickness
S e l f - a s s e m b l i n g
Organic or inorganic substances spontaneously form
A wide range of applications, based
2–5 years
monolayers (SAMs)
a layer one molecule thick on a surface. Additional
on properties ranging from being
layers can be added, leading to laminates where each
chemically active to being wear
layer is just one molecule in depth (Holister, 2002).
resistant (Saxl, 2000).
N a n o p a r t i c u l a t e
Coating technology is now being strongly influenced
Sensors, reaction beds, liquid crystal
5–15 years
c o a t i n g s
by nanotechnology. E.g. metallic stainless steel
manufacturing, molecular wires,
coatings sprayed using nanocrystalline powders
lubrication and protective layers, anti-
have been shown to possess increased hardness
corrosion coatings, tougher and harder
when compared with conventional coatings (Saxl, 2000). cutting tools (Holister, 2002).
Nanostructured materials
N a n o c o m p o s i t e s
Composites are combinations of metals, ceramics,
A number of applications, particularly
Current – 2 years
polymers and biological materials that allow multi-
where purity and electrical conductivity
functional behaviour (Anton et al., 2001). When
characteristics are important, such as
materials are introduced that exist at the nanolevel,
in microelectronics. Commercial
nanocomposites are formed (Hay and Shaw, 2000),
exploitation of these materials is
and the material’s properties – e.g. hardness,
currently small, the most ubiquitous
t r a n s p a r e n c y, porosity – are altered.
of these being carbon black, which finds
widespread industrial application,
particularly in vehicle tyres
(Hay and Shaw, 2000).
Te x t i l e s
Incorporation of nanoparticles and capsules into
M i l i t a r y, lifestyle.
3-5 years
clothing leading to increased lightness and durability,
and ‘smart’ fabrics (that change their physical
properties according to the wearer’s clothing)
( H o l s t e r, 2002).
various atmospheric dangers, such as
techniques that will allow the larg e - s c a l e
lightning strikes, micrometeors, and human-
economic production of nanotechnology
made space debris.
p roducts, and the necessary support for
quality control (DTI, 2002). Because of the
The market impetus behind such
essential nature of this category, its influence is
developments, then, is clear: the conventional
far greater than is reflected in the size of the
space industry is anticipated as the first
economic sectors producing these pro d u c t s .
major customer, followed by aircraft
For this reason, the tools and techniques
manufacturers. However, as production costs
highlighted below have a strong commerc i a l
drop (currently US$20–1200/g), nanotubes
f u t u re and the greatest number of established
are expected to find widespread application
companies (pers. comm., Gareth Parry,
in such large industries as automobiles and
Imperial College London, 22 Nov 2002). The
construction. In fact, it is possible to
following sections cover methods for top-
conceive of a market in any area of industry
down and bottom-up manufacture, software
that will benefit from lighter and stronger
modelling and nanometro l o g y. However, in
materials (Holister, 2002). It is expectations
the near future, this area will mainly feature
such as these that are currently fuelling the
extensions of conventional instru m e n t a t i o n
race to develop techniques of nanotube mass-
and top-down manufacturing. More futuristic
production in economic quantities. The ETC
molecular scale assembly remains distant
Group (2002b) states that there are currently
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
at least 55 companies involved in nanotube
fabrication and that production levels will
2.2.4.1 Top-down manufacture
soon be reaching 1 kg/day in some
Scanning Probe Microscope. This is the
companies. For example, Japan’s Mitsui and
general term for a range of instruments with
Co. will start building a facility in April 2003
specific functions. Fundamentally, a
with an annual production capacity of
nanoscopic probe is maintained at a constant
120 tons of carbon nanotubes (Fried, 2002).
height over the bed of atoms. This probe can
The company plans to market the product to
be positioned so close to individual atoms
automakers, resin makers and battery
that the electrons of the probe-tip and atom
makers. In fact, the industry has grown so
begin to interact. These interactions can be
quickly that Holister (2002) believes that the
strong enough to ‘lift’ the atom and move it
number of nanotube suppliers already in
to another place (pers. comm., Gareth Parry,
existence are not likely to be supported by
Imperial College London, 22 Nov 2002).
available applications in the years to come.
Fried (2002) also supports this contention,
Optical Te ch n i q u e s . These techniques can be
stating that the ‘carbon nanotube field is
used to detect movement – obviously
already over-saturated’.
i m p o rtant in hi-tech precision engineering.
Optical techniques are, in theory, restricted in
2 . 2 . 4 Tools and fabrication
resolution to half the wavelength of light
It is a simple statement of fact that in order to
being used, which keeps them out of the lower
make things you must first have the
nanoscale, but various approaches are now
fabrication tools available. There f o re, many of
o v e rcoming this limitation (Holister, 2002).
the nanomaterials covered above are co-
evolving with a number of enabling
Lithographics. Lithography is the means by
technologies and techniques. These tools
which patterns are delineated on silicon chips
p rovide the instrumentation needed to
and micro-electrical-mechanical systems
examine and characterize devices and eff e c t s
(MEMS). Most significantly, optical
during the R&D phase, the manufacturing
lithography is the dominant exposure tool in
16
use today in the semiconductor industry’s
Similarly, the latter area of devices range
Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor
from the production of new chemical and gas
(CMOS) process
sensors, optical sensors, solar panels and
other energy conversion devices, to bio-
2.2.4.2 Bottom-up manufacture
implants and in vivo monitoring. The basis
The tools here support rather more futuristic
of these technologies is an organic film (the
approaches to large-scale production and
responsive layer) which can be deposited on
nanofabrication based on bottom-up
a hard, active electronic chip substrate. The
approaches, such as nanomachine production
solid-state chip receives signals from the
lines (Miles and Jarvis, 2001). This approach
organic over-layer as it reacts to changes in
is equivalent to building a car engine up from
its environment, and processes them. The
individual components, rather than the less
applications for these new materials and
intuitive method of machining a system
devices are summarised in Table 2.
down from large blocks of material. Indeed,
Table 2: Applications for new materials and devices
although such techniques are still in their
resulting from self-assembly and self-organisation.
infancy, the DTI (2002) report a recent
N a m e
Te c h n i q u e
A p p l i c a t i o n
movement away from top-down techniques
towards self-assembly within the
New materials
international research community. Scientists
Sol-gel technology
Inorganic and
The design of different
and engineers are becoming increasingly able
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001) organic component
types of materials;
c o m b i n a t i o n .
functional coatings.
to understand, intervene and rearrange the
Intercalation of
Intercalation of
Toxicity testing, drug
atomic and molecular structure of matter,
polymers (Miles and
polymers with other
delivery and drug
and control its form in order to achieve
Jarvis, 2001)
materials (DNA, drugs). performance analysis.
specific aims (Saxl, 2000).
N a n o - e m u l s i o n s
Nanoparticle size and
Production of required
(Saxl, 2000)
composition selected.
viscosity and absorption
Self-assembly and self-organisation. Self-
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .
assembly refers to the tendency of some
B i o m i m e t i c s
Design of systems,
High strength, structural
materials to organise themselves into ordered
(Anton et al., 2001)
materials and their
applications, such as
functionality to mimic
artificial bones and
arrays (Anton et al., 2001). This technique
nature.
t e e t h .
potentially offers huge economies, and is
New devices
considered to have great potential in
Field-sensing devices
Combination of
Biosensing and
nanoelectronics. In particular, the study of
(Saxl, 2000)
molecular films with
optical switching.
the self-assembly nature of molecules is
optical waveguides
proving to be the foundation of rapid growth
and resonators.
in applications in science and technology. For
M a t e r i a l - s e n s i n g
Surfaces of liquid
Gas and chemical
example, Saxl (2000) reports that the
devices (Saxl, 2000)
crystals or thin
sensing.
membranes and other
Stranski–Krastonov methods for growing
organic compounds
self-assembly quantum dots has rendered the
can be used to detect
lithographic approach to semiconductor
molecules via structural
or conductive changes.
quantum dot fabrication virtually obsolete.
In addition, self-assembly is leading to the
fabrication of new materials and devices. The
2.2.4.3 Software Modelling
former area of materials consists of new
Molecular modelling software is another
types of nanocomposites or organic/inorganic
fabrication technique of wide-ranging
hybrid structures that are created by
applicability as it permits the efficient
depositing or attaching organic molecules to
analysis of large molecular structures and
ultra-small particles or ultra-thin manmade
substrates (Miles and Jarvis, 2001). Hence,
layered structures (Hay and Shaw, 2000).
it is much used by molecular
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
17
nanotechnologists, where computers can
that much, or even most, US government
simulate the behaviour of matter at the
research in the field is concentrated in the
atomic and molecular level. In addition,
hands of military planners.
computer modelling is anticipated to prove
essential in understanding and predicting the
Levels of public investment in
behaviour of nanoscale structures because
nanotechnology are reminiscent of a growing
they operate at what is sometimes referred
strategic interest: this is an area that attracts
to as the mesoscale, an area where both
both large and small countries. Global R&D
classical and quantum physics influence
spending is currently around US$4 billion
behaviour (Holister, 2002).
(ETC Group, 2002a), with public investment
increasing rapidly (503% between 1997 and
2.2.4.4 Nanometrology
2002 across the ‘lead’ countries2). Table 3
Fundamental to commercial nanotechnology
summarises these rises.
is repeatability, and fundamental to
repeatability is measurement.
Table 3: World-wide government funding for nanotechnology
research and development (US$million).
Nanometrology, then, allows the perfection
A r e a
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
of the texture at the nanometre and sub-
nanometre level to be examined and
U S *
1 1 6
1 9 0
2 5 5
2 7 0
4 2 2
6 0 4
7 1 0
controlled. This is essential if highly
We s t e r n
specialised applications of nanotechnology
E u r o p e
1 2 6
1 5 1
1 7 9
2 0 0
2 2 5
~ 4 0 0
N A
are to operate correctly, for example X-ray
J a p a n
1 2 0
1 3 5
1 5 7
2 4 5
4 6 5
~ 6 5 0
N A
optical components and mirrors used in laser
O t h e r s * *
7 0
8 3
9 6
1 1 0
3 8 0
~ 5 2 0
N A
technologies (Saxl, 2000).
To t a l
4 3 2
5 5 9
6 8 7
8 2 5
1 5 0 2
2 1 7 4
N A
(% of 1997) 1 0 0
1 2 9
1 5 9
1 9 1
3 4 8
5 0 3
N A
2 . 2 . 5 Public funding for
research and development
NA: not available.
* Excluding non-federal spending e.g. California.
The main reason for government interest
** ‘Others’ includes Australia, Canada, China, Eastern Europe, the
in nanotechnology is strategic: to achieve
Former Soviet Union, Singapore, Taiwan and other countries with
nanotechnology R&D. For example, in Mexico there are 20 research
an advantageous position so that when
groups working independently on nanotechnology. Korea, already a
nanotech applications begin to have a
world player in electronics, has an ambitious 10-year programme to
significant effect in the world economy,
attain a world-class position in nanotechnology (DTI, 2002).
countries are able to exploit these new
opportunities to the full. Harper (2002), who
2.2.5.1 The US
describes the current situation as a global
The US is widely considered to be the world-
‘arms race’, puts these ideas into perspective:
leader in nanoscale science research (Saxl,
2000). Certainly, in terms of leading centres
‘You only have to look at how IT made a
for nanotechnology research, the USA
huge difference to both the US economy and
dominates, with eight institutions making the
US military strength to see how crucial
DTI (2002) top list of 13. These centres are
technology is. Nanotechnology is an even
University of Santa Barbara, Cornell
more fundamental technology than IT. Not
University, University of California at Los
only has it the ability to shift the balance of
Angeles, Stanford University, IBM Research
military power but also affect the global
Laboratories, Northwestern University,
balance of power in the energy markets.’
Harvard University and the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT). In total, more
This emphasis on military power is well
than 30 universities have announced plans
founded: Smith (1996) echoes this sentiment
for nanotech research centres since 1997
when he speculates that it is entirely possible
(Leo, 2001). Further, the US is widely
18
regarded as the benchmark against which
elaborating a ‘conceptual template for
nanotechnology funding should be compared
achieving new levels of war-fighting
(Roman, 2002). Indeed, Howard (2002)
effectiveness’ (DoD, 2002). This table
states that, ‘while other governments are
provides a fairly accurate picture of current
investing in a range of nanotechnology
research priorities in the US. However, state
research, the US effort is by far the most
funding, which can sometimes be substantial,
substantial.’ From 1985–1997 the total
is not included in the estimates. For example,
support for projects related to
the state of California, which is home to
nanotechnology was estimated at US$452
virtually all the work in molecular
million, coming in roughly equal parts from
nanotechnology, has invested US$100 million
the NSF, various industrial sponsorship, and
in the creation of a California Nanosystems
other government funding. Then in 2000, the
Institute. And neither are the figures static;
much-heralded NNI was launched – a multi-
levels of funding are anticipated to increase
agency programme designed to provide a big
rapidly once the economic benefits of US
funding boost for nanotechnology. There are
funding begin to be felt, whether in new
currently 10 US government partners in the
company start-up activity, or progress
NNI3. These are shown in Table 4.
towards military or social goals.
Table 4: Breakdown of spending on the US’s National
Nanotechnology Initiative from 2001–2003 (US$million).
2.2.5.2 Far East
Recipient
2001
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
Table 5 shows the levels of 2002 government
a c t u a l
e s t i m a t e
p r o p o s e d
spending on nanotechnology within five
National Science
countries in the Far East. On average, these
F o u n d a t i o n
1 4 5
1 9 9
2 2 1
figures are lower than in the US although,
Department of Defence
1 2 5
1 8 0
2 0 1
given the increased purchasing power in
countries such as China, they may be
Department of Energy
7 8
9 1
1 3 9
considered as relatively high (Roman, 2002).
National Aeronautics
0
4 6
4 9
and Space Administration
However, while the figures given are up-to-
date, the time-scales over which they operate
National Institute
4 0
4 1
4 3
of Health
are ambiguous.
National Institute of
2 8
3 7
4 4
Table 5: Top five government spending
Standards and Te c h n o l o g y
on nanotechnology in the Far East in 2002
( U S $ m i l l i o n ) .
Environmental
5
5
5
Protection Agency
C o u n t r y
S p e n d i n g
Department of
0
2
2
J a p a n
7 5 0
Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n
C h i n a
2 0 0
US Department
0
2
5
of Agriculture
K o r e a
1 5 0
Department of Justice
1
1
1
Taiwan
1 1 1
To t a l
4 2 2
6 0 4
7 1 0
S i n g a p o r e
4 0
DTI, 2002.
To t a l
1 2 5 1
Roman, 2002.
Table 4 shows that the NSF and Department
of Defence (DoD) are the two major
Of all the countries shown in Table 5,
recipients of investment in nanoscience and
Japan’s nanotech investments are by far the
technology R&D. Indeed, the NSF has
greatest. Indeed, it is universally agreed that
designated ‘nanoscale science and
Japan has the only fully co-ordinated and
engineering’ as one of its six priority areas,
funded national policy of nanotechnology
while the DoD has dedicated its funding to
research. The most prominent product of this
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
19
national policy has been the Ministry of
years. On the other hand, many countries
Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
have no specifically focused nanotechnology
programme on atomic manipulation,
initiatives, but this re s e a rch is covered within
1991–2001, entitled Research and
m o re general R&D programmes (Compano,
Development of Ultimate Manipulation of
2001). Table 7 summarises the situation for
Molecules (Tam, 2001). The programme was
the top six countries.
funded at the ¥25 billion level
Table 7: Top six European government
(approximately US$210 million). Of the
nanotechnology spending from 1998–2000 ( m i l l i o n ) .
total, US$167 million has been allocated for
C o u n t r y / i n s t i t u t i o n
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
the development of microbots (Saxl, 2000).
G e r m a n y
4 9 . 0
5 8 . 0
6 3 . 0
Nowadays, the Japanese government views
U K
3 2 . 0
3 5 . 0
3 9 . 0
the successful development of
nanotechnology as key to restoration of its
European Commission
2 6 . 0
2 7 . 0
2 9 . 0
economy: nanotechnology is one of the four
France
1 2 . 0
1 8 . 0
1 9 . 0
strategic platforms of Japan’s second basic
N e t h e r l a n d s
4 . 7
6 . 2
6 . 9
plan for science and technology. For
Sweden
3 . 4
5 . 6
5 . 8
example, the Japanese government has
European total
1 3 9 . 8
1 6 4 . 7
1 8 4 . 0
founded the Expert Group on
Nanotechnology under the Japan Federation
Compano, 2001.
of Economic Organisations Committee on
The European Commission (EC) funds
Industrial Technology. In another initiative,
nanoscience through its so-called Framework
which it calls its ‘e-Japan strategy’, the
P rogramme (FP). The aim of the FP6 is to
Japanese government aims to become ‘the
p roduce bre a k t h rough technologies that
world’s most advanced IT nation within five
d i rectly benefit the EU, either economically or
years’ (IT Strategic Headquarters, 2001).
s o c i a l l y. Under this, 1.3 billion are
Japan’s government nanotechnology
e a rmarked for ‘nanotechnologies and
expenditures are given in Table 6.
nanosciences, knowledge-based
multifunctional materials and new pro d u c t i o n
Table 6: Estimated Japanese government nanotechnology research
and development expenditures (US$million).
p rocesses and devices’ in the 2002–2006 FP
out of a total budget of 11.3 billion. This
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
thematic priority is only partly dedicated to
1 2 0
1 3 5
1 5 7
2 4 5
4 6 5
~ 7 5 0
~ 1 0 0 0
nanoscience, while other thematic priorities
Roman, 2002.
also have a nanotechnology component. At
Although the figures given in Table 6 are
first glance this may seem a small figure
impressive, Roman (2002) believes that the
c o m p a red to the 2003 NNI budget of US$710
annual 50% increase does cast some doubt
million ( 0.72 billion). However, it does not
over their accuracy. For while there is no
take into account the substantial contributions
doubt that funding will continue to increase,
made by individual member states (Compano,
increasing the number of researchers
2001). The UK serves as a good example of
available to absorb this extra funding does
this, where public spending on
not seem possible on an annual basis.
nanotechnology R&D was around £30 million
in 2001 (DTI, 2002), 70–80% of it from the
2.2.5.3 European Union
Engineering and Physical Sciences Researc h
All European Union (EU) member states,
Council (EPSRC). However, this is set to rise
except Luxembourg where no universities are
quite rapidly in 2002–2003 as the new
located, have re s e a rch programmes. For some
i n t e rd i s c i p l i n a ry re s e a rch collaborations and
countries, such as Germ a n y, Ireland or
university technology centres start to spread.
Sweden, where nanotechnology is considere d
of strategic importance, nanotechnology
p rogrammes have been established for several
20
2.3 Applications and Markets
(DTI, 2002). In spite of these difficulties,
some forecasts exist that do hint at the kind
2 . 3 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
of growth we might expect.
The applications of nanotechnology are
Table 8: Summary of future estimated
extremely diverse, mainly because the field is
global markets in nanotechnology.
interdisciplinary (Miles and Jarvis, 2001). In
Ye a r
Estimated global market
addition, the effect that nanotechnology will
2 0 0 1
£31–55 billion
have during the next decade is difficult to
2 0 0 5
£105 billion
estimate because of potentially new and
unanticipated applications. For example, if
2 0 0 8
£500 billion
simply reducing the microstructure in
2 0 1 0
£700 billion
existing materials can make a big market
2 0 1 1 – 2 0 1 5
Exceeds US$1 trillion (£0.6 trillion)
impact, then this may, in turn, lead to a
DTI, 2002.
whole new set of applications. However, it
seems reasonable to assume that during the
Most strikingly, the NSF predicts that the
next two to three years most activity in
total market for nanotech products and
nanotechnology will still be in the area of
services will reach US$1 trillion by 2015
research, rather than completed projects or
(Roco and Bainbridge, 2001). The accuracy
products. Holister (2002) estimates that there
of this claim is difficult to assess, given the
are currently 455 public and private
doubts expressed above. Compano and
companies, 95 investors, and 271 academic
Hullman (2001) approach the problem
institutions and government entities that are
through the comparison of publication
involved in the near-term applications of
(representing basic science or R&D) and
nanotechnology world-wide. The ability of
patent (representing technology applications)
such institutions to transfer research results
nanotechnology data with Grupp’s (1993)
into industrial applications can be indicated
theory of Stylised Technological
by the number of filed patents. Compano
Development. As a result, they conclude that
and Hullman (2001) provide an analysis of
the peak of scientific activity is still to come,
this, using the number of nanopatents filed at
possibly in three to five years from now, and
the European Patent Office (EPO) in
large-scale exploitation of nanotechnological
Munich. Over the whole 1981–1998 period,
results might arise ten years from now.
the number of nanopatents rises from
28–180 patents, with an average growth rate
Considering the above comments about
in the 1990s amounting to 7%.
nanotechnological development and market-
pull, it is instructive to examine which areas
One important characteristic of activity
of industry will be affected first. Mihail
grouped within this section is that much of
Roco, the NSF senior advisor for
the work in near-term applications of
nanotechnology, believes that ‘early payoffs
nanotechnologies is ‘market-pulled’: in each
will come in computing and pharmaceuticals’
case, a particular and potentially profitable
(quoted in Leo, 2001), whereas Holister
use within industry and/or the consumer
(2002) points out that medicine is a huge
market has been identified. However, as with
market, thereby implying that revenue for
the difficulty in predicting the future
nanotechnology in this area could be
applications of nanotechnology, many
substantial. On the other hand, the NSF
market analysts believe that it is too soon to
believe that, due to the high initial costs
produce reliable figures for the global market
involved, ‘nanotechnology-based goods and
– it is simply too early to say where and
services will probably be introduced earlier in
when markets and applications will come
those markets where performance
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
21
characteristics are especially important and
areas: electronics, magnetics and optics. This
price is a secondary consideration’ (Roco and
section primarily concentrates on electronics,
Bainbridge, 2001). Examples of these are
acknowledged by Compano (2001) as one of
medical applications and space exploration.
the major drivers of the world-wide
The experience gained will then reduce
economy. In fact, the current market for
technical and production uncertainties and
miniaturised systems is estimated at US$40
prepare these technologies for deployment
billion and the market for IT peripherals to
into the market place.
be more than US$20 billion, although
semiconductor products have a dominant
A good indication of the areas of current and
role and their turnover grows at a higher rate
near-future commercial nanotech activity is
than the overall electronics market. The field
the type of patents made. Compano and
is dominated by the US and Japan. In fact,
Hullman (2001) state that one-quarter of all
apart from a few niche markets where
patents filed are focused on instrumentation.
Western European companies are able to
This supports the view that nanotechnology
compete, recent technological breakthroughs
is at the beginning of the development phase
have been largely due to major
of an enabling technology where the first
manufacturers in these countries (Miles and
focus is to develop suitable tools and
Jarvis, 2001). Japan has a particularly strong
fabrication techniques. The most important
commercial basis in this area, although
industrial sectors are informatics
Japanese R&D tends to be organised through
(information science), and pharmaceuticals
lines determined by the government (via the
and chemicals. For the first sector, ‘massive
MicroMachine Centre): the METI funds
storage devices, flat panel displays, or
much of the work (US$100 million in the last
electronic paper are prominent IT patenting
five years). In the US too, government is very
areas. In addition to this, extended
involved in applied research. Here, the
semiconductor approaches and alternative
activities of military funding agencies are of
nanoscale information processing,
note – such institutions tend to be generous
transmission or storage devices are
in their company funding in this field, even
dominant.’ In the case of chemistry and
when there is a clear commercial benefit for
pharmaceuticals, a large number of patents
the companies involved.
are directed towards ‘finding new approaches
for drug delivery, medical diagnosis, and
In general, it is much harder to predict the
cancer treatments which are supposed to
commercially successful technologies in the
have huge future markets. Nanotechnology
world of electronics than in the world of
patenting for other sectors (e.g. aerospace,
materials (Holister, 2002). However, if one
construction industries and food processing)
considers that the major driving force in
show yearly increasing values, but their
nanoscience for the last decade has been
absolute numbers are relatively small.’ In
microelectronics (Glinos, 1999), then it
summary then, IT and medicine look set to
makes sense that nanotechnology will play
have an impact on the market first. The next
an important role in the future of this
two sections deal with both these areas in
industry. The ETC Group (2002a) provide a
more detail. Following this, the widely cited
notable statistic here, stating that by 2012
potential impacts of nanotechnology on the
the entire market will be dependent on
energy and defence sectors are examined.
nanotech. For, although there are few
nanotechnology products in the market place
2.3.2 Informatics
at present, future growth is expected to be
Informatics, or information science, can be
strong, with a predicted composite annual
thought of as consisting of three interrelated
growth rate of 30–40%, with emerging
22
markets around 70% (DTI, 2002). A number
the force behind Moore’s law, which predicts
of recent forecasts, although varying greatly,
that the processing power of ICs will double
reflect this market confidence. For example,
every 18 months (Glinos, 1999). Based on
Miles and Jarvis (2001) put the market for
Moore’s law, industry predictions are
nanotechnology-based IT and electronics
summarised in Table 9.
devices at around US$70 billion by 2010. A
second estimate states that nanotechnology
Semiconductor industry associations assume
will yield an annual production of about
that they will be close to introducing 100 nm
US$300 billion for the semiconductor
ground-rule technology by 2004 (Compano,
industry and about the same amount again
2001). The significance of this lies in the fact
for global integrated circuits sales within
that 100 nm is widely viewed as a kind of
10–15 years (NSF, 2001). Similarly, for
‘turning point’, where many radically new
micro- and nanotechnology systems in the
technologies will have to be developed. To
telecommunications sector, the market is
begin with, optical lithography will become
presently estimated as being in the order of
obsolete somewhere around 100 nm. As a
US$35 billion with an anticipated compound
result, ‘next generation lithography’ options
annual growth rate of around 70%.
are currently being investigated. These are
summarised in Table 10.
2.3.2.1 Moore’s Law
Table 10: Maturity of lithography options.
The microelectronics industry had looked
ahead and seen serious challenges for its
Year of introduction
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 9
basic CMOS process. CMOS technology has
Minimum feature size
1 5 0
1 2 0
9 0
6 5
been refined for over 20 years, driving the
Optical 193 nm
X *
X
‘line width’-the width of the smallest feature
Optical 157 nm
X
X
in an integrated circuit (IC)-from 10 mm
Extreme UV
X
X
down to 0.25 µm (Doering, 2001). This is
X - r a y s
X
Table 9: Anticipated technological
Electron beam
X
X
computing developments for 2001–2014.
Ion beam
X
X
F e a t u r e
Ye a r
P r i n t i n g
X
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 8
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 4
*An ‘X’ designates the date at which the respective
M e m o r y
fabrication technology is expected to become economically
Minimum feature
1 5 0
1 2 0
1 0 0
7 0
5 0
3 5
viable for mass production.
size DRAM
Adapted from Compano, 2001.
(1/2 pitch in nm)
G b i t s / c h i p
2
4
8
2 4
6 8
1 9 4
Excluding the printing process, each
Density
0 . 4 9
0 . 8 9
1 . 6 3
4 . 0 3
9 . 9 4
2 4 . 5 0
fabrication technique essentially works on
( G b i t s / c m2)
the same principle where a reactive silicon-
Logic (processing power)
based agent is exposed to increasingly
Minimum feature
1 0 0
8 0
6 5
4 5
3 0 – 3 2
2 0 – 2 2
focused electromagnetic radiation: optical to
size (gate length
X-rays representing a successive reduction in
in nm)
photon wavelength; E-beam and ion beam
Density (million
1 3
2 4
4 4
1 0 9
2 6 9
6 6 4
projection technologies using focused
transistors per cm2)
electron and ion beams respectively. All of
Logic clock (GHz)
1 . 7
2 . 5
3 . 5
6 . 0
1 0 . 0
1 3 . 5
these techniques are currently under active
DRAM: Dynamic Random Access Memory,
evaluation-the aim is to have the appropriate
a type of memory used in most personal computers.
equipment for the corresponding time-frame.
Adapted from Compano, 2001
To date, X-ray and ion bean projection have
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
23
received the greatest research investment
Molecular nanoelectronics. Organic
(Compano, 2001). Printing technologies,
molecules have been shown to have the
however, are the ultimate goal, where sheets
necessary properties to be used in electronics.
of circuits can be rolled off the production
Devices made of molecular components
line like a printing press.
would be much smaller than those made by
existing silicon technologies and ultimately
2.3.2.2 Beyond Moore’s law
offer the smallest electronics theoretically
M o o re ’s law cannot continue indefinitely.
possible without moving into the realm of
In the years following 2015, additional
subatomic particles (Holister, 2002).
d i fficulties are likely to be encountere d ,
Molecular electronic devices could operate
some of which may pose serious challenges
as logic switches through chemical means,
to traditional semiconductor manufacturing
using synthesised organic compounds. These
techniques. In part i c u l a r, limits to the degre e
devices can be assembled chemically in large
that interconnections or wires between
numbers and organised to form a computer.
transistors may be scaled could in turn limit
The main advantage of this approach is
the effective computation speed of devices
significantly lower power consumption by
because of the pro p e rties and compatibility
individual devices. Several approaches for
of particular materials, despite incre m e n t a l
such devices have been devised, and
p resent-day advances in these areas (Anton
experiments have shown evidence of
et al., 2001). Thermal dissipation in chips
switching behaviour for individual devices.
with extremely high device-densities will also
pose a serious challenge. This issue is not so
For example, in ‘DNA computing’, the
much a fundamental limitation as it is an
similarities between mathematical operations
economic consideration, in that heat
and biological reactions are used to perform
dissipation mechanisms and cooling
calculations. The key idea is to find the
technology may be re q u i red that add to the
parallelism between DNA-the basic genetic
total system cost, thereby adversely aff e c t i n g
information-and well-known digital
the marginal cost per computational
computers. This is because a string of DNA
function for these devices. Eventually,
can be used to solve combination problems
h o w e v e r, CMOS technology may hit a more
if it can be put together in the right sequence
c rucial barr i e r, the quantum world, where
(Compano, 2001). One issue is that
the laws of physics operate in a very
molecular memories must be able to
d i ff e rent paradigm to that experienced in
maintain their state, just as in a digital
e v e ryday life. For example, futuristic circ u i t s
electronic computer. Also, given that the
operating on a quantum scale would have to
manufacturing and assembly process for
take Heisenberg ’s Uncertainty Principle into
these devices will lead to device defects,
account. Overcoming this barrier is a
a defect-tolerant computer architecture
d i ff e rent matter altogether, where the
needs to be developed. Fabricating reliable
p roblems are no longer merely technological
interconnections between devices using
(Glinos, 1999), and industry has alre a d y
carbon nanotubes (or some other technology)
begun to investigate the problem in a
is an additional challenge. A significant
number of ways. Three of the most
amount of work is ongoing in each of these
commonly cited appro a c h e s - m o l e c u l a r
areas. Even though experimental progress to
n a n o e l e c t ronics and quantum inform a t i o n
date in this area has been substantial, it
p rocessing (QIP)-are expanded upon below.
seems unlikely that molecular computers
In addition, computational self-assembly is
could be developed within the next 15 years
acknowledged as a potentially key
that would be relatively attractive (from a
fabrication technique of the future .
price and performance standpoint) compared
24
with conventional electronic computers
matter, however, because of the greater
(Anton et al., 2001).
complexity involved-their applicability
remains limited until total control over the
QIP. This crosses the disciplines of quantum
emerging structures in terms of wiring and
physics, computer science, information
their interconnections can be obtained. These
theory and engineering with the aim of
are formidable obstacles. Self-assembly,
harnessing the fundamental laws of quantum
therefore, will likely be combined initially
physics to ‘dramatically improve the
with some more traditional top-down
acquisition, transmission and processing of
approaches. For example, many believe that
information’ (Miles and Jarvis, 2001). QIP
inducing molecular components to self-
represents computing at the smallest possible
assemble on a patterned substrate in some
scale, in which one atom is equivalent to one
sort of hybrid system will represent the first
byte of information. Other aspects of
commercialisation of nanoelectronics
quantum computing also considered
(Holister, 2002).
attractive relate to their massive parallelism
in computation (i.e. the ability to perform
2.3.2.3 Summary of applications
simultaneous calculations) (Holister, 2002).
The main drivers for current applied
These concepts are qualitatively different
microelectronics research are computing,
from those employed in traditional
telecommunications, consumer electronics
computers and will hence require new
and military applications. It is not evident
computer architectures. A preliminary survey
how long personal computing will act as a
of work in this area by Anton et al., (2001)
driver. On the one hand, personal computers
indicates that quantum switches are unlikely
(PCs) already offer sufficiently good
to overcome major technical obstacles, such
performance for a large number of users; on
as ‘error correction, de-coherence and signal
the other, new applications, such as
input/output’ within the next 15 years. If this
automatic voice recognition or PC wireless
proves to be the case, QIP-based computing,
communications, may give further impulses
as with molecular nanoelectronics, does not
for further progress (Compano, 2001).
appear to be competitive with traditional
Military applications have a restricted
digital electronic computers for some time.
volume but are of strategic importance.
Thus, it is generally anticipated that most
Computational self-assembly. A major barrier
new technologies within this area will emerge
to the introduction of nanoelectronics is that
in (US) military use first before eventually
there are no established mass production
finding their way into the civil sector (Saxl,
techniques for creating devices on a
2000). These and other ideas are summarised
commercial basis (Saxl, 2000). In the short
in Table 11.
to medium term, Table 10 covers the most
promising fabrication approaches. In the
2 . 3 . 3 Pharmaceuticals and medicine
long-term, however, more ambitious bottom-
Nanotechnology, combined with
up methods based on self-assembly
biotechnology, are the underpinning
techniques are proposed. Bottom-up
technologies pushing the rapid advances in
approaches are elegant, cheap and possibly
‘genomics, combinatorial chemistry, high
enormously powerful techniques for future
throughput robotic screening, drug discovery,
mass replication. The relatively
gene sequencing and bioinformatics and their
straightforward architecture of molecular
applications’ (Saxl, 2000). In medicine,
memory means that self-assembly techniques
advances can take place at the nanoscale
in this area may bear fruit in a few years
where, for example, either passive or active
(Table 11). Tackling processors is another
nano-engineered systems can be used that
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
25
Table 11: Summary of application areas for informatics.
Material/technique
A p p l i c a t i o n s
Time-scale (to market launch)
Pre 2015
Quantum well structures
Telecommunications/optics industry.
Quantum well lasers already
(pers.comm., Gareth Barry,
Potentially very important applications
utilised in CD players. Not
Imperial College London,
in laser development for the data
yet optimised for the
22 Nov 2002).
communications sector. The aim is to
communications market
use fibre optic communications in
(i.e. fibre optics): 4–5 years.
building and computers. The problems
Quantum dot structures
are cost and high temperature operating Quantum dots still in research
(source as above).
conditions. Quantum well/dot structures stage: 7–8 years.
can potentially solve this problem
Photonic crystal technologies
Optical communication sector, i.e. fibre
Still in basic R&D, but very
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
optics. Photonic integrated circuits can
strong commercial interest
be nearly a million times denser than
emerging.
electronic ones. Their tighter
confinement and novel dispersion
properties also open up opportunities
for very low power devices
Carbon nanotubes in
Memory and storage; commercial
Commercial prototype
nanoelectronics. These hold
prototype nanotube-based
nanotube-based RAM predicted
promise as basic components
(non-volatile); RAM; display
in 1–2 years.
for nanoelectronics – they can
technologies; E-paper.
act as conductors,
Consumer flat screen by
semiconductors and insulators
the end of 2003.
( H o l i s t e r, 2002).
Limited commercialisation
of E-paper in 1–2 years.
Spintronics – the utilisation
Ultra-high capacity disk drives and
A read head has been
of electron spin for significantly computer memories.
demonstrated that can deal with
enhanced or fundamentally
storage densities of a terabit per
new device functionality
square inch. In 2001 Fuji
(Science Blog, 2002).
announced a new magnetic
coating promising 3-gigabyte
floppy disk.
Polymers (Compano, 2001).
Display technologies – this sector
Some commercialisation,
is driven by the electronics consumer
e.g. Cambridge Display
market.
Technologies has been formed
specifically to exploit this
t e c h n o l o g y.
Post 2015
Molecular nanoelectronics
Circuits based on single molecule and
Single atom transistor
(including DNA computing)
single electron transistors will appear,
demonstrated recently. Still
(Compano, 2001).
initially in special applications.
immature, but huge potential
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
Quantum information
Several researchers have devised
Still in pure research phase,
processing (QIP)
algorithms for problems that are very
although some US defence
(Compano, 2001).
computationally intensive (and thus
money has been made available
time-consuming) for existing digital
( H o l i s t e r, 2002).
computers, which could be made much
faster using the physics of quantum
computers. E.g. factoring large numbers
(essential for cryptographic applications),
searching large databases, pattern
matching, simulation of molecular
and quantum phenomena
(Anton et al., 2001).
26
enable the required dose of drug to be
with no guarantee of success. In re s p o n s e ,
delivered at the correct time to the target
some companies are trying to hurry the long
area, or at the macro-level, such as induced
clinical phase re q u i red in We s t e rn medicine
tissue growth. This reduces unwanted side
(Ho, 2002a). However, powerful incentives
effects, improves patient compliance, leads to
remain to investigate new techniques that can
lower doses and opens up new possibilities
m o re effectively deliver or target existing
(that would be impossible without
d rugs (Saxl, 2000). In addition, many of these
nanotechnology approaches) (Miles and
new tools will have foundation in curre n t
Jarvis, 2001). The size of this market is the
techniques: a targeted molecule may simply
main driving force behind such innovation.
add spatial or temporal resolution to an
LaVan and Langer (2001) predict that:
existing assay. Thus, although many potential
‘fundamental changes in drug production
applications are envisaged, the actual near-
and delivery are expected to affect about half
f u t u re products are not much more than
of the [US]$380 billion world- wide drug
better re s e a rch tools or aids to diagnosis (Ho,
production in the next decade.’ At present,
2002a). These are summarised in Table 12.
nanotechnology is estimated to have a 1%
stake in this, but whole sectors will continue
2 . 3 . 4 E n e r g y
to grow and this contribution is expected to
The global energy sector is likely to be
increase rapidly (Ho, 2002a). The US is
p a rticularly affected by coming advances in
widely recognised as a leader in this area,
n a n o t e c h n o l o g y. To illustrate, significant
with a company market share of about 40%,
changes in lighting technologies are expected
and many applications close to the market.
in the next 10–15 years. Semiconductors used
in the preparation of light-emitting diodes can
2.3.3.1 Drug delivery
i n c reasingly be sculpted on nanoscale
The most promising aspect of
dimensions. Projections indicate that such
p h a rmaceuticals and medicine as it relates to
nanotechnology-based advances have the
nanotechnology is currently drug delivery. In
potential to reduce world-wide consumption
the words of LaVan and Langer (2001): ‘It is
of energy by more than 10% (NSF, 2001).
likely that the pharmaceutical industry will
The various applications showing most
transition from a paradigm of drug discovery
p romise are summarised in Table 13.
by screening compounds to the purposeful
engineering of targeted molecules.’ At pre s e n t ,
Most current photovoltaic (PV) production is
t h e re are 30 main drug delivery products on
based upon crystalline and amorphous
the market. The total annual income for all of
silicon technologies. However, as Table 13
these is approximately US$33 billion with an
shows, research is now focusing upon new
annual growth of 15% (based on global
technologies which may result in significant
p roduct revenue) (Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
reductions in PV costs and/or improvements
Two major drivers are primarily re s p o n s i b l e
in efficiency. Nanotechnology is anticipated
for this increase in the market. First, pre s e n t
to play an important part in this future.
advances in diagnostic technology appear to
Although total PV power output remains
be outpacing advances in new therapeutic
relatively low, the industry is growing
agents. Highly detailed information from a
rapidly-the production of PV modules
patient is becoming available, thus pro m o t i n g
expanded by 40% in 1997 (Saxl, 2000). This
much more specific use of pharm a c e u t i c a l s
increase is largely due to the building and
( L a Van and Langer, 2001). Second, the
construction industry, the largest and fastest
acceptance of new drug formulations is
growing sector at present. In addition,
expensive and slow, taking up to 15 years to
developing countries represent a potentially
obtain accreditation of new drug form u l a s
vast market (pers. comm., Jenny Nelson,
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
27
Table 12: Summary of application areas for nanoscale pharmaceuticals and medicine.
M a t e r i a l / t e c h n i q u e
P r o p e rty
A p p l i c a t i o n s
Time-scale
(to market launch)
D i a g n o s t i c s
Nanosized markers
Minute quantities of a
E.g. detection of cancer
?
i.e. the attachment of
substance can be detected, cells to allow early
nanoparticles to molecules down to individual
t r e a t m e n t .
of interest (Holister, 2002).
molecules
‘Lab-on-a-chip’
Miniaturisation and
The creation of miniature,
Although chips currently
technologies (Saxl, 2000).
speeding up of the
portable diagnostic
cost over £1250
analytical process.
laboratories for uses in
(US$2085) each to
the food, pharmaceutical
make, within three years
and chemical industries;
the costs should fall
in disease prevention and
d r a m a t i c a l l y, making
control; and in
these tools widely
environmental monitoring. a v a i l a b l e .
Quantum dots (pers.
Quantum dots can be
D i a g n o s i s
In early stage of
comm., Gareth Barry,
tracked very precisely
development, but there is
Imperial College London,
when molecules are ‘bar
enough interest here for
22 Nov 2002).
coded’ by their unique
some commercialisation
light spectrum.
.
(e.g. Q-dot Inc.).
Drug delivery
Nanoparticles in the
Larger particles cannot
Cancer treatment.
?
range of 50–100 nm
enter tumour pores while
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
nanoparticles can easily
move into a tumour.
Nanosizing in the range
Low solubility.
More effective treatment
?
of 100–200 nm (Miles
with existing drugs.
and Jarvis, 2001).
Polymers (Holister, 2002).
These molecules can be
Nanobiological drug
?
engineered to a high
carrying devices.
degree of accuracy.
Ligands on a
These molecules can be
The ligand target receptors ?
nanoparticle surface
engineered to a high
can recognise damaged
( H o l i s t e r, 2002).
degree of accuracy.
tissue, attach to it and
release a therapeutic drug.
N a n o c a p s u l e s
Evading body’s immune
A Buckyball-based AIDS
Early clinical.
( H o l i s t e r, 2002).
system whilst directing a
treatment is just about to
therapeutic agent to the
enter clinical trials
desired site.
(Ho, 2002a).
Increased particle
Degree of localised drug
Slow drug release.
?
adhesion (Holister, 2002).
retention increased.
Nanoporous materials
Evading body’s immune
When coupled to sensors,
Pre-clinical: an insulin-
( H o l i s t e r, 2002).
system whilst directing a
drug-delivering implants
delivery system is being
therapeutic agent to the
could be developed.
tested in mice.
desired site.
‘ P h a r m a c y - o n - a - c h i p ’
Monitor conditions and act E.g. Diabetes treatment.
More distant than ‘lab-on-
(Saxl, 2000).
as an artificial means of
a-chip’ technologies.
regulating and maintaining
the body’s own hormonal
b a l a n c e .
Sorting biomolecules
Nanopores and
Gene analysis
Current – ?
( H o l i s t e r, 2002).
membranes are capable
and sequencing.
of sorting, for example,
left- and right-handed
versions of molecules.
Tissue regeneration, growth and repair
N a n o e n g i n e e r e d
Increased miniaturisation;
Retinal, auditory, spinal
Most immediate will be
prosthetics
increased prosthetic
and cranial implants.
external tissue grafts;
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
strength and weight
dental and bone
reduction; improved
replacements; internal
b i o c o m p a t i b i l i t y.
tissue implants
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
Cellular manipulation
Manipulation and coercion Persuasion of lost nerve
More distant: 5–7 years.
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001).
of cellular systems.
tissue to grow; growth
of body parts.
28
Table 13: Summary of applications for energy processing.
M a t e r i a l / t e c h n i q u e
A p p l i c a t i o n s
Time-scale (to market launch)
Power generation (PV technology)
Polymer materials
Solar cells (pers. comm., Jenny Nelson,
The research stage has
( o r g a n i c ) .
Imperial College London, 2 Dec 2002).
advanced much more quickly
Current developments aim to balance moderate
than expected. As a result,
efficiency with low cost. Another big advantage
p o l y m e r-based PV cells should
is that these layers can easily be incorporated
enter the market in 5 years.
into appliances. Current problems stem from
the material’s instability.
Combinations of
Dye-sensitised solar cells made from a thin
Low power applications will
organic and
hybrid layer (pers. comm., Jenny Nelson,
enter market first. Limited
inorganic molecules.
Imperial College London, 2 Dec 2002). These
commercialisation already
cells are potentially very cheap because
occurring (e.g. by Sustainable
fabrication is from cheap, low purity materials
Technologies International).
by simple and low cost procedures (Saxl, 2000).
Photocatalytic water treatment.
Quantum wells
Quantum-well solar cells (pers. comm., Jenny
Pure research.
( i n o r g a n i c ) .
Nelson, Imperial College London, 2 Dec 2002).
Current research is taking place in high-efficiency
applications because the infrared part of the
solar spectrum may be absorbed.
N a n o r o d s .
These structures can be tuned to respond to
L o n g - t e r m .
different wavelengths of light forming cheap
and efficient solar cells (Holister, 2002).
Fuel conversion/storage
Improved fuel
Fuel conversion (Saxl, 2000).
Current – 3 years.
catalysts through
nanostructuring.
N a n o t u b e s .
Fuel storage. E.g. a methane-based fuel cell
2 years.
for powering mobile phones and laptops is
currently being developed. (Holister, 2002).
Nanoparticles.
Vastly increased (e.g. x10) charge and discharge D i s t a n t .
battery rate (Holister, 2002).
Imperial College London, 2 Dec 2002).
2 . 3 . 5 Defence
In spite of these developments, however,
Nanoscale informatics, pharmaceuticals and
n a n o t e c h n o l o g y, as a new and radical
medicine remain the most high-profile areas
t e c h n o l o g y, still faces an uncertain future
of near-term market application. However,
in this area as a number of altern a t i v e
Gsponer (2002) contends that the most
technologies are also competing for attention
significant near-term applications of
(e.g. inorganic silicon). Indeed, it may be 20
nanotechnology will be in the military
years before nanotech-based PV begins
domain. This is because micromechanical
competing as a viable energy source with
and MEMS engineering is historically
this example. As reminiscent of so many of
connected to nuclear weapons laboratories: it
the aforementioned applications in this
was within this domain that the field of
section, there is much hype but no one re a l l y
nanotechnology was born a few decades ago.
knows how to achieve these things yet (pers.
Today, it is not difficult to understand why
comm., Jenny Nelson, Imperial College
nanotechnology might appeal to military
London, 2 Dec 2002).
planners. Through technologies such as
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
29
steam navigation, repeating firearms, and
molecular disassemblers that would be rapidly
high explosives, Western powers have
e ffective, but with less unintended destru c t i o n
enjoyed virtually unchallenged military
to surrounding buildings and populations.’
supremacy throughout the 19th Century
(Reynolds, 2002). It is not absurd, then, to
Other stated applications include (NSF,
imagine that nanotechnology could play a
2001):
similar role in the 21st Century. Indeed, new
technologies, notably IT, are playing an
•
information dominance through
increasingly important part in modern
advanced nanoelectronics
warfare-as reflected by recent investments in
the US DoD (see Table 4). Trends such as
•
more sophisticated virtual reality systems
these have led leading strategic
commentators, such as David Jeremiah
•
increased use of enhanced automation
(1995), to conclude that military applications
and robotics
of nanotechnology have an even greater
potential than nuclear weapons to radically
•
required improvements in
change the balance of global power in the
chemical/biological/nuclear sensing
future. Fundamentally, this potential lies in a
greater range of military options when
•
design improvements in systems used for
deciding how to respond to aggression. Scott
nuclear non-proliferation monitoring and
Pace (1989) of RAND expands upon this:
management
‘How might nanotechnology contribute to US
•
combined nanomechanical and
m i l i t a ry power? In peacetime or crisis,
micromechanical devices for control of
nanocomputers may allow more capable
nuclear defence systems.
s u rveillance of potential aggressors. The flood
of data from world-wide sensors could be
In addition, such nanotechnologies might be
culled more efficiently to look for tru l y
‘cleaner’ and ‘safer’ and less likely to cause
t h reatening activities. In low-intensity warf a re ,
collateral damage than the technologies they
intelligent sensors and barrier systems could
replace, making them especially appealing to
isolate or channel guerrilla movements
military planners (Reynolds, 2002). For
depending on the local terrain. In
example, MEMS have many potential uses in
conventional theatre war, nanotechnology
the battlefield, largely due to their built-in
may lead to small, cheap, highly lethal anti-
mechanical functions that allow them to act
tank weapons. Such weapons could allow
as sensors and actuators (RAND, 2002).
relatively small numbers of infantry to defeat
Actuators in particular extend the
assaults by large arm o u red forces. At nuclear
functionality of sensors by allowing them to
conflict levels, accurate nanocomputer
respond to the environment with the usage of
guidance and low nanomachine pro d u c t i o n
force. Applications of MEMS in military
costs would accelerate current trends in the
systems include ammunition, petroleum,
p roliferation of ‘smart’ munitions. Rather
food, as well as enabling a host of other
than requiring nuclear weapons to attack
smarter, more efficient logistics operations.
massive conventional forces or distant, hard
t a rgets, nanotechnology enhancements to
The infantry soldier too is anticipated to
c ruise missiles and ballistic missiles could
receive a nanotech-based ‘makeover’: a new
allow them to destroy their targets with
Institute for Soldier Nanotechnology (ISN)
conventional explosives. Conventional
has been created at MIT, with a US Army
explosives themselves might be replaced by
grant of US$50 million over five years. The
30
goal of this research centre is to greatly
Table 14: US historical funding for technology
enhance the protection and survival of the
transitioning into the marketplace.
infantry soldier using nanoscience (New
S o u r c e
P e r c e n t a g e
Scientist, 2002). For example, US army
C o r p o r a t e
3 4 %
planners are hoping to lighten the load that
Federal government
2 9 %
soldiers carry into battle (currently around
A n g e l s *
2 5 %
64 kg) by redesigning the equipment from
the atomic scale up. Current signs indicate
State and local government
5 %
that progress towards these objectives may
Venture capital institutions
4 %
soon begin to bear fruit: a Centre for
University endowments
3 %
Nanoscience Innovation for Defence (CNID)
* Angels are individuals who provide capital to one
was created in January 2003 to facilitate the
or more start-up companies. An angel is usually
rapid transition of research innovation in the
affluent or has a personal stake in the success of the
venture. Such investments are characterised by high
nanosciences into applications for the
levels of risk and a potentially large return on
defence sector (Science Blog, 2002). CNID
investment.
is sponsored by two federal agencies – the
Adapted from Helsel, 2002.
Defence Advanced Research Project Agency
(DARPA) and Defence MicroElectronics
2.3.6.1 Transnational companies.
Activity (DMEA) – to the tune of US$20
Transnational companies often carry out
million over three years.
their own nanotech-related R&D. This is
because they understand that
2 . 3 . 6 Corporate funding
nanotechnology is likely to disrupt their
The difficulties involved in drawing upon
c u rrent products and processes, and
accurate corporate data from within the
t h e re f o re recognise the need to understand
public domain are far more substantial
and control the pace of such implications
than those encountered with re g a rd to
(DTI, 2002). In this way, some of the
public investment. Thus, a detailed analysis
w o r l d ’s largest companies, including IBM,
of corporate activity is mainly beyond the
M o t o rola, Hewlett Packard, Lucent,
scope of this re p o rt. However, it is
Hitachi, Mitsubishi, NEC, Corning, Dow
i m p o rtant to recognise that, urged on by
Chemical and 3M have launched significant
the growing interest (and hype) curre n t l y
nanotech initiatives through their own
s u rrounding nanotechnology, spending by
v e n t u re capital funds or as a direct result of
big firms in 2002 is anticipated to match or
their own R&D (Holister, 2002). In the US
even exceed government spending (Holister,
and Switzerland for example, IBM is
2002). Furt h e rm o re, this private investment
p roviding some US$100 million nanotech-
is very often at the fore f ront of application
related funding for its hi-tech re s e a rc h
development in the marketplace. Helsel
laboratories (DTI, 2002). In Japan too,
(2002) demonstrates this by showing how
many of the nation’s largest players have
historical funding for technology
now entered the nanotech field, including
transitioning into the US market place is
Fuji, Hewlett-Packard Japan, Hitachi,
led by corporate sources.
Mitsubishi, NEC and Sony. For example,
Toray Industries, a global maker of
In total, there are an estimated 470
synthetic fibre, textiles and chemicals, is
nanotech companies distributed acro s s
establishing a US$40 million centre
N o rth America, Europe and Asia (ETC
specialising in nanotechnology and
G roup, 2002a). Of these, about 230 are
biotechnology near Tokyo. The building is
based in the US, about 130 in Europe,
expected to be finished by March 2003
and about 75 in the Asia-Pacific.
(Fried, 2002).
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
31
2.3.6.2 Start-up companies
to budget managers in order to increase
At present there are about 100 business start -
funding. He concludes that: ‘the [term]
ups – new business ventures in their earliest
should be new, different, euphonious, and
stages of development – in operation today,
connected somehow, however tenuously, to
about half of which are located in the US
science.’ It is not difficult to identify the kind
(Thibodeau, 2002). Such companies rely on
of claims that can fuel such reaction. For
their understanding of where new
example, Pergamit and Peterson (1993) state
o p p o rtunities and markets may lie and thus
that: ‘Humanity will be faced with a
play an important role in commerc i a l i s i n g
powerful, accelerated social revolution as a
re s e a rch. This increase in activity amongst
result of nanotechnology. In the near future,
s t a rt-ups is mirro red by the investment
a team of scientists will succeed in
c o m m u n i t y, who, according to Abid Khan
constructing the first nano-sized robot
(pers. comm., London Centre for
capable of self-replication. Within a few
N a n o t e c h n o l o g y, 6 Nov 2002), have decided
short years, and five billion trillion nano-
that nanotechnology is the ‘next big thing’ –
robots later, virtually all present industrial
the new computing or biotechnology. Indeed,
processes will be obsolete as well as our
some large investment groups now have
contemporary concept of labor.’
specialists who follow developments in the
subject. Although such activity tends to
Regardless of the accuracy of these claims,
p roduce little in the way of a cohere n t
however, there can be no doubt that the
p i c t u re, business investment in
language in which they are framed has
nanotechnology start-ups is on the rise.
helped to attract large amounts of
T h e re were over 20 nanotechnology
investment. The pinnacle of this came in
investments in the first half of 2002 in the
1997 when the US NNI was launched by
US and Europe, and more than US$100
President Bill Clinton to ‘an extraordinary
million invested in the US in the first half
amount of hype’ (ETC Group, 2002a).
of 2002 (Holister, 2002). According to
Amongst the various documents produced by
Thibodeau (2002), this level of funding is
the White House about the subject was one
p rojected to increase to US$1 billion by 2003. entitled: National Nanotechnology Initiative:
Leading to the Next Industrial Revolution
2.4 Reality and Hype
(White House Fact Sheet, 2000). The fact
sheet lists seven ‘potential breakthroughs’
2 . 4 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
anticipated over the next quarter-century.
Nanotechnology advocates have been
These include ‘making materials and
criticised within recent years for hyping the
products from the bottom-up’ (i.e. by
potential impact that nanoscale science and
building them up from atoms and molecules)
technology will have upon the economy and
and ‘improving the computer speed and
society. For example, in response to the NSF
efficiency of minuscule transistors and
claim that the size of the nanotechnology
memory chips by factors of millions.’
market will reach US$1 trillion in 10 years
However, these ambitious claims were
time (Roco and Bainbridge, 2001), The
accompanied with very little serious
Economist (2002) points to ‘nano-
investigation of their feasibility, or indeed
enthusiasts’ being responsible for ‘recklessly
whether nanotechnology – rather than some
setting impossibly high expectations for the
other competing technology – will even
economic benefits.’ This sentiment is even
deliver within the allotted time-frame.
echoed by some material scientists
themselves: Roy (2002) describes the term
At present, there is a general understanding
‘nano’ as a ‘halo regime’ – a term that is sold
amongst industry that the level of hype
32
s u rrounding nanotechnology has, to some
attracted a great deal of public interest, and
extent, damaged investment potential (DTI,
impressive demonstrations have been made
2002). For example, Schultz (2002) advocates
of microscopic devices. For example, in
the need for nanotech re s e a rchers and
August 2001 scientists from Osaka
s u p p o rters to dampen unquestioning
University built the smallest micromechanical
enthusiasm for nanotechnology. This is
system ever, a spring whose arm is only
because, without discussion of the potential
0.3 µm wide (Ho, 2002a). However,
pitfalls, future nanotechnology re s e a rch could
although almost qualifying as a nanodevice,
be subjected to such extreme pre s s u re that
the question of whether it is possible to
funding is jeopardised and re s e a rch pro g re s s
attain extreme capability and, if so, how to
is slowed, perhaps halted altogether in some
develop the field, is a point of contention in
cases. This realisation has quickly lead to an
both scientific and policy circles (Nelson and
attempt by industry to diffuse some of the
Shipbaugh, 1995).
wilder claims surrounding the field. Glenn
F i s h b i n e ’s I n v e s t o r’s Guide to Nanotech and
In spite of the above controversies, it remains
M i c romachines (2002) provides one such
clear that bottom-up technologies, while
example: it is through this type of work that
having the potential to be immensely
the science fiction aspects of the debate are
important in the longer term, are not likely
now receding (pers. comm., Abid Khan,
in the near future (DTI, 2002). However,
London Centre for Nanotechnology, 6 Nov
some products benefiting from research into
2002). However, in spite of these
molecular manufacturing may be developed
developments, it is clear that the distinction
in the near term. As initial nanomachining,
between near- f u t u re applications of
novel chemistry and protein engineering
nanotechnology (see Section 2.3) and some
(or other biotechnologies) are refined, initial
of the more visionary aspects of the debate
products will likely focus on those that
has become blurred. An attempt to
substitute for existing high-cost, lower-
distinguish between the two areas here will
efficiency products. Likely candidates for
help draw out some of the more legitimate
these technologies include a wide variety of
c o n c e rns currently being voiced about
sensor applications, tailored biomedical
nanotechnology in the following section.
products (including diagnostics and
therapeutics), extremely capable computing
2 . 4 . 2 Molecular nanotechnology
and storage products, and unique, tailored
The more hyped aspects of nanotechnology
materials (i.e. smart materials using
have generally revolved around MNT.
nanoscale sensors, actuators, and perhaps
Proponents of this approach suggest that
controller elements) for aerospace or similar
environmentally clean, inexpensive, and
high-capability needs (Nelson and
efficient manufacturing of structures, devices,
Shipbaugh, 1995). Predictions of when
and ‘smart’ products, based on the flexible
bottom-up processes will begin to become
control of architectures and processes at an
available on a widespread basis vary across
atomic or molecular scale of precision, may
the literature. In general, the hyped aspects
be feasible in the near future (i.e. 10–20
of the industry are operating around a
years from the present). The ambitious goal
20-year time-scale, with estimates for
is to produce complex products on demand
economically viable self-assembly techniques
using simple raw materials, such as by
tending to convene around 2015 (Ho,
inserting the basic chemical elements in a
2002a). However, to reach a fully mature
molecular assembly factory to yield a
nanotechnology society – where it is possible
common household appliance (Nelson and
to manipulate objects on all scales from atom
Shipbaugh, 1995). These visions have
to macroscopic – is expected to take at least
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
33
35 years (Nelson and Shipbaugh, 1995). This
likely to be largely separable at a subsystems
is partly due to the economic advantages of
level, the amount of computation re q u i red for
competing technologies. For example, with
design and validation is likely to be quite
regard to advanced computing, Anton et al.,
substantial. Perf o rming checks on engineering
(2001) state that: ‘the odds-on favourite for
constraints, such as defect tolerance, physical
the next 15 years remains traditional digital
i n t e g r i t y, and chemical stability, will be
electronic computers based on semiconductor
re q u i red as well (Anton et al,. 2001).
technology. Given the virtual certainty of
continued progress in this area, it is hard to
2.4.2.2 Nanobots and other nanoscale devices
imagine a scenario in which…quantum-
This area can be accredited with receiving
switch-based computing, molecular
the most severe hype, where headline-
computers, or something else could offer
grabbing predictions include curing cancer,
a significant performance advantage at a
eliminating infections, enhancing our
competitive price.’ The major technical
intelligence, and even making us immortal.
obstacles to development in other areas of
In fact, according to Saxl (2000), it will take
MNT – namely molecular manufacturing,
25 years at least before tiny machines
general assembly and nanobots – are
circulate in the bloodstream cleaning out fat
expanded upon below.
deposits from our arteries. Indeed, although
the implications of such revolutionary
2.4.2.1 Molecular manufacturing
technologies are awesome, developments that
To realise molecular manufacturing, a number
appear achievable in the short and medium
of technical accomplishments are necessary
term are not particularly dramatic. Perhaps
(Nelson and Shipbaugh, 1995). First, suitable
the most advanced work in this area
molecular building blocks must be found.
concerns MIT’s Bioinstrumentation
These building blocks must be physically
Laboratory where an autonomous miniature
durable, chemically stable, easily manipulated,
robot, dubbed the ‘NanoWalker’, is being
and (to a certain extent) functionally versatile.
designed (MIT, 2002). Measuring
The second major area for development is in
approximately 25 mm2, the name
the ability to assemble complex stru c t u re s
NanoWalker stems from its ability to take
based on a particular design. A number of
thousands of steps per second in the
re s e a rchers have been working on diff e re n t
nanometre range. The ultimate goal of this
a p p roaches to this issue. One uses atomic-
type of robotic machine, generically referred
f o rce or molecular microscopes with very
to as an assembler, is the construction of
small nanoprobes to move atoms or molecules
materials an atom or molecule at a time by
a round with the aid of physical or chemical
precisely placing reactive groups. This is
f o rces. An alternative approach uses lasers to
called ‘positional assembly’ (Holister, 2002).
place molecules in a desired location.
Chemical assembly techniques are also being
2.4.2.3 General assembly
a d d ressed, including an approach to building
The General Assembler is considered to be
s t ru c t u res one molecular layer at a time. A
the ‘Holy Grail’ of nanotechnology and
t h i rd major area for development within
represents the ultimate utility of atom-
molecular manufacturing is systems design
manipulating nanobots. In general, such an
and engineering. Extremely complex
assembling device is regarded as extremely
molecular systems at the macroscale will
distant (e.g. more than 25 years). However,
re q u i re substantial subsystem design, overall
there are presently two US companies known
system design, and systems integration, much
to be going after molecular assembly, in
like complex manufactured systems of the
addition to engineering several ‘magical’
p resent day. Although the design issues are
assembler dependent products. One of these
34
companies, Zyvex (2002), aims ‘to become
Furthermore, other commentators such as
the leading world-wide supplier of tools,
Ho (2002c), point to major problems
products, and services that enable adaptable,
concerning energy sources and dissipation, or
affordable, and molecularly precise
just the sheer complexity of the task at hand.
manufacturing’ and offers a ‘variety of
For example, diamond assemblies might be
products, services, and licensing
relatively easy to assemble; other structures,
opportunities,’ including a number of
such a biological configurations, are
nanomanipulation devices. Such nano-
infinitely more complicated.
advocates claim the first major breakthrough
in this area might occur as early as 2007.
2.5 Concerns
2 . 4 . 3 Fundamental barriers to these visions
2 . 5 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
This report does not intend to refute that
Given the difficulty in fore s e e i n g
significant progress has been made in
nanotechnology outcomes and estimating
constructing macroscale objects using MNT
likelihood, it is difficult to extrapolate
techniques. Although the building blocks for
p redictions of specific threats and risks fro m
these systems currently exist only in isolation
c u rrent trends (Anton et al., 2001). And yet,
at the research stage, it is certainly
in spite of this, recent discussions of the
reasonable to expect that an integrated
possible dangers posed by future technologies
capability could be developed over the next
(such as AI, genetic engineering and MNT)
15 years. Such a system might be able to
have made it clear that analysis of the major
assemble structures with between 100 and
classes of risks of nanotechnology is
10,000 components and total dimensions of
w a rranted. Perhaps the greatest difficulty in
perhaps tens of microns (Anton et al., 2001).
p redicting the impacts of new technologies
In particular, a series of important
has to do with the fact that, once the
breakthroughs would certainly cause
technical and commercial feasibility of an
progress in this area to develop much more
innovation is demonstrated, subsequent
rapidly, especially if research continues to
developments may be as much in the hands of
accelerate at today’s rate. However,
users as in those of the innovators (NSF,
particularly in light of some of the wilder
2001). As a result, new technologies can
claims regarding nanotechnology-enabled
a ffect society in ways that were not intended
futures, it must also be stressed that,
by those who initiated them. Sometimes these
although molecular manufacturing holds
unintended consequences are beneficial, such
significant promise, it remains the least
as spin-offs with valuable applications in
concrete of all the technologies discussed in
fields remote from the original innovation. A
this report. Certainly, there are a number of
good example of this concerns the early days
major technical obstacles to be overcome,
of the Internet – the subject is covered in Part
some of which might be virtually
2 of this re p o rt. Other times, intended
insurmountable. Indeed, in the most carefully
benefits may also have unintended or ‘second-
considered dismissal to date, Professor
o rd e r’ consequences. Intere s t i n g l y, while a few
Smalley upholds the notion of nanobot
f a r-sighted scientists are focusing on
replicators as fundamentally problematic
potentially negative second-order impacts of
(Smalley, 2001). First, the fingers of such
f u t u re nanotech applications, virtually no one
atomically sized manipulators are too ‘fat’ to
has been tracking the potentially negative
allow sufficient control of the reaction
impacts of nanotechnology’s pre s e n t - d a y
chemistry; second, they are too ‘sticky’ – the
p roducts (ETC Group, 2002a). This section,
atoms of the manipulator hands would be
t h e re f o re, will attempt to distinguish between
adhered to the atom that is being moved.
these two time-frames, as well as intro d u c i n g
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
35
the main environmental and socio-political
finding a way into the bloodstream was
c o n c e rns. For the purposes of this re p o rt ,
acknowledged. In addition, very little work
‘ l o n g - t e rm’ refers to a hazard that, due to
has been done in order to ascertain the
challenges associated with technological
possible effects of nanomaterials on living
development, is unlikely to manifest itself
systems. One possibility is that proteins in
within a 10–15 year time-frame.
the bloodstream will attach to the surface
of nanoparticles, thus changing their shape
2 . 5 . 2 Environmental concerns
and function, and triggering dangero u s
The potential impact of nanostructured
unintended consequences, such as blood
particles and devices on the environment is
clotting. A second possibility relates to the
perhaps the most high profile of
ability of nanoparticles to slip past the
contemporary concerns. Quantum dots,
human immune system unnoticed, a
nanoparticles, and other throwaway
p ro p e rty desirable for drug delivery, but
nanodevices may constitute whole new
w o rrying if potentially harmful substances
classes of non-biodegradable pollutants that
can attach to otherwise benign
scientists have very little understanding of.
nanomaterials and reside in the body in a
Essentially, most nanoparticles produced
similar manner. According to Colvin (2002),
today are mini-versions of particles that have
‘it is possible to speculate that nanoscale
been produced for a long time. Thus, the
i n o rganic matter is generally biologically
larger (micro) versions have undergone
i n e rt. However, without hard data that
testing, while their smaller (nano)
specifically address the issue of synthetic
counterparts have not (ETC Group, 2002a).
nanomaterials, it is impossible to know
For example, Vicki Colvin, Executive
what physiological effects will occur, and,
Director of Rice University’s Centre for
m o re critically, what exposure levels to
Biological and Environmental
re c o m m e n d . ’ To illustrate, this re p o rt shows
Nanotechnology (CBEN) has recently
how nanotubes, should industry pre d i c t i o n s
postulated that nanomaterials provide a large
be realised, are set to become re l a t i v e l y
and active surface for adsorbing smaller
ubiquitous within the coming decades –
contaminants, such as cadmium and
such materials are already finding their way
organics. Thus, like naturally occurring
into a number of products. But it has not
colloids, they could provide an avenue for
yet been determined what happens if, for
rapid and long-range transport of waste in
example, large quantities of nanotubes are
underground water (cited in Colvin, 2002).
absorbed by the human body. One
p rominent concern relates to the stru c t u r a l
2.5.2.1 Infiltrating humans
similarities between nanotubes and asbestos
The concern that nanomaterials could bind
f i b res: like the latter, nanotubes fibres are
to certain common but harmful substances
long, extremely durable, and have the
in the environment, such as pesticides or
potential to reside in the lungs for lengthy
PCBs, leads to the short - t e rm worry of such
periods of time. One recent study,
materials infiltrating humans. According to
conducted by the National Aeronautics and
the ETC Group (2002a), at a recent fact-
Space Administration (NASA), has shown
finding meeting at the US Enviro n m e n t a l
that breathing in large quantities of
P rotection Agency (EPA), re s e a rc h e r s
nanotubes can cause damage to lungs.
re p o rted that nanoparticles can penetrate
H o w e v e r, as nanotubes are essentially
living cells and accumulate in animal
similar to soot, then this is not part i c u l a r l y
o rgans. In part i c u l a r, the possibility of toxic
surprising (The Economist, 2002). On the
elements attaching themselves to otherw i s e
whole, far more experiments are re q u i re d
benign nanomaterials inside bacteria and
b e f o re the issue can be resolved.
36
2.5.2.2 Self-replication
developing nanofabrication techniques for
Self-replication is probably the earliest-
manufacturing nanoelectronic devices in huge
recognised and best-known long-term danger
volumes at very low cost, then the impact on
of MNT. This centres upon the idea that self-
society will be enormous. The potentially
replicating nanorobots capable of functioning
d i s ruptive nature of nanotechnology has
autonomously in the natural environment
a l ready been highlighted in earlier sections
could quickly convert that natural
t h rough its ability to generate major new
environment (i.e. ‘biomass’) into replicas of
paradigm shifts in how things are generated,
themselves (i.e. ‘nanomass’) on a global
such as a shift from top-down to bottom-up
basis. Such a scenario is usually referred to
manufacturing techniques. This section furt h e r
as the ‘grey goo’ problem but perhaps more
elaborates upon this and similar concerns.
properly termed ‘global ecophagy’ (Freitas,
2000). The main feature that distinguishes
2.5.3.1 Medical ethics
runaway replication as a long-term
The ethical questions that have been raised in
environmental concern is the extreme
recent years following the advancement of
difficulty involved in constructing machines
such technologies as gene therapy are similar
with the adaptability of living organisms.
to in scope and philosophy to nanotechnology.
As Freitas (2000) notes:
For example, the emergence of highly specific
d rug therapies, a nanobased technique that
‘The replicators easiest to build will be
f e a t u res prominently in earlier sections of this
inflexible machines, like automobiles or
re p o rt, may result in genetic discrimination.
industrial ro b o t s … To build a ru n a w a y
That is, discrimination directed against an
replicator that could operate in the wild would
individual or family based solely on an
be like building a car that could go off - ro a d
a p p a rent or perceived genetic variation fro m
and fuel itself from tree sap. With enough
the ‘normal’ human genotype (LaVan and
work, this should be possible, but it will hard l y
L a n g e r, 2001). The major concern here lies in
happen by accident. Without re p l i c a t i o n ,
the end result of going down such a road: that
accidents would be like those of industry
the de-selection of characteristics judged
today: locally harmful, but not catastrophic to
unwanted by societies (re f e rred to as negative
the biosphere. Catastrophic problems seem
eugenics) will be viewed as the right,
m o re likely to arise though deliberate misuse,
responsible, moral thing to do, as will cure s
such as the use of nanotechnology for military
and enhancements (Wolbring, 2002).
a g g re s s i o n ’ (see below).
S i m i l a r l y, on a longer time-scale, concern s
over nanotech applications for enhancing the
This is not to imply, however, that the risk
p e rf o rmance of the human body might also
that molecular machines designed for
arise. A major question here is whether such
economic purposes might replicate
enhancements can be forced upon people,
unchecked and destroy the world should be
either when in a position to make a decision
written off altogether: while the danger
for themselves or, more contro v e r s i a l l y,
seems slight, even a slight risk of such a
against their will.
catastrophe is best avoided (Zyvex, 2002).
To this end, David Forrest (1989) has
2.5.3.2 The nano-divide
produced a set of guidelines to assure that
If Moore’s law holds and the miniaturisation
molecular machines and their products are
of PCs continues unchecked well into the
developed in a safe and responsible manner.
21st Century, then it seems likely that, in the
long-term, society will get to a point where
2 . 5 . 3 Socio-political concerns
people can carry computers 24 hours a day.
C l e a r l y, if scientists are successful in
As Chaudhari (2001) states: ‘We are evolving
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
37
to the point where every human being will be
technological wonders that it engenders.’
connected to any other human or to the vast
(Roco and Bainbridge, 2001). One near-term
network of information sources throughout
example will be in medical care, as nanotech-
the world by a communication system
based treatments may be initially expensive
comprised of wireless and optical fibre
and hence only accessible to the very rich.
communication links.’ A world in which
information is abundant and cheap may well
In the longer-term, campaign groups such as
have serious privacy implications for those
the ETC Group point to what they describe
who can afford to connect. However, little
as the ‘corporate concentration’ of ‘material
consideration seems to have been given to
building blocks and processes that make
those who will clearly not be able to afford
everything from dams to DNA.’ This concern
to participate. Indeed, many nations are
arises irrespective of the general doctrine in
already witnessing an IT divide, particularly
patent law that products of nature cannot be
in reference to Internet usage, that correlates
patented because the atomically-engineered
with inequality in the distribution of wealth.
elements of today are able to side-step the
This gap is likely to be exacerbated by any
issue. For example, C Sixty Inc., a Toronto,
impending nanotechnological revolution,
Canada-based start-up exercise, has filed a
forming a so-called ‘nano-divide.’ It is
series of patents, five of which have been
important not to underestimate the potential
granted, for Buckminsterfullerene. The aim
scale of this: the transition from a pre-nano
of C Sixty Inc. is to corner the market with
to post-nano world could be very traumatic
respect to this remarkable molecule and its
and could exacerbate the problem of haves
vast potential in drug delivery. A big concern
vs. have-nots. Such differences are likely to
of the ETC Group (2002c) is that patenting
be striking (Smith, 2001).
offices (such as the US Patent and Trademark
Office) understand nanotechnology, so that
A quick glance at demographics provides
when approached by industry, examiners
some insight into what such a post-nano
understand what are reasonable boundaries
world might look like. According to the
to intellectual property rights.
World Bank, the Western industrial
democracies will shrink from 12.7% of
2.5.3.3 Destructive uses
today’s population to 8.6% by 2025. At the
The potentially catastrophic but long-term
same time in the developing world the
danger that the deliberate misuse of
population will double (cited in Jeremiah,
nanotechnology for military aggression poses
1995). The kinds of nanotech-inspired
has already been sketched out above. Indeed,
wonders alluded to throughout this report
Howard (2002) concedes that ‘once the basic
may only be feasible for the 8.6% of the
technology is available, it would not be
2025 population who live in Western
difficult to adapt it as an instrument of war
industrial democracies, and the upper layer
or terror.’ Gsponer (2002), on the other
of society in the developing and non-
hand, draws attention to the existing
developing world, not for the rural poor and
potential of nanotechnology to affect
the underside of all urban populations. In
dangerous and destabilising ‘refinements’ of
other words, ‘the differences in the quality of
existing nuclear weapons designs – such
life will be even starker than today between
fourth generation nuclear weapons are new
these two worlds’ (Jeremiah, 1995). The NSF
types of explosives that can be developed in
supports these sentiments: ‘Those who
full compliance with the Comprehensive Test
participate in the nano revolution stand to
Ban Treaty (CTBT). Such developments hint
become very wealthy. Those who do not may
at the worrying possibility of a
find it increasingly difficult to afford the
nanotechnology arms race. Zyvex (2002)
38
sketch out the underlying rationale for such
House Fact Sheet (2000) promised that the
an occurrence:
impact nanotechnology has on society fro m
legal, ethical, social, economic, and workforc e
‘It is clear that offensive weapons made using
p reparation perspectives would be studied.
advanced nanotechnology can only be
These aims have already been realised to
stopped by defensive systems made using
some extent. For example, the 2001 NSF
advanced nanotechnology as well. If one side
re p o rt entitled Implications of Nanoscience
has such weapons and the other doesn’t, the
and Nanotechnology takes a long, hard look
outcome will be swift and very lopsided. This
at a range of hypothetical social ramifications
is just a specific instance of the general rule
(Roco and Bainbridge, 2001).
that technological superiority plays an
important and often critical role in
This industry strategy has been received with
determining the victor in battle. Clearly, we
mixed reaction. Some commentators, such as
will need much further research into
Ho (2002a), have praised scientists for
defensive systems as this technology becomes
i n f o rming the public with ‘clarity and
more mature.’
c a n d o u r.’ Others, on the other hand have not
been nearly so generous in their assessment.
2 . 5 . 4 Public acceptance of nanotechnology
H e rrera (2002), for example, sums up the
In spite of the concerns highlighted above,
p resent state of the nanotech industry as
both pre c a u t i o n a ry principle and industry
being comparable to a ‘sitting duck’, just as
advocates agree that there is time to cre a t e
biotech was during the 1990s, because it is
dialogue and consensus that could prevent the
not taking the issue of public acceptance
kind of confrontations occurring that plagued
s e r i o u s l y. Herrera continues: ‘Ask members of
the development of biotechnology. In this
the nanotechnology community if there are
w a y, the objective of industry is to launch
any obvious or potential controversies that
p re-emptive strikes against any problems with
they should be watching for, and they will say
public acceptance of nanotechnology that
‘no’… Scientists think about ethics but they
might arise down the line (Gorman, 2002).
d o n ’t let it interf e re with their work.’
The earliest example of this is the Fore s i g h t
Institute, a think-tank founded in 1986
At present, the majority of controversy in
primarily to facilitate public understanding
this area surrounds the interaction of
and discussion of the policy issues
nanomaterials with the environment and
s u rrounding the development and deployment
their implications for human health. Vicki
of nanotechnology. More re c e n t l y, nanotech
Colvin of CBEN believes that ‘scientists’
re s e a rchers have been urged to build on the
experience with other particulate matter
example of the Ethical and Social
argues for a thorough examination of how
Implications (ELSI) project (an
nanoparticles might react in mammalian
i n t e rd i s c i p l i n a ry eff o rt within the Human
systems when they are inhaled or when there
Genome Project). That is, to ‘take a hard
is skin exposure’ (cited in Schultz, 2002). In
look at potential ethical and cultural issues,
addition, nanotech manufacturing processes
but follow through much more carefully and
need to be examined for potential health
get out ahead of the public’ (Paul Thompson,
impacts, for example the solvents used in the
P rofessor of Ethics at Purdue University,
gases produced in the manufacture of carbon
quoted in Leo, 2001). Indeed, the NNI has
nanotubes. Outside of manufacturing,
long acknowledged a need to integrate
researchers should investigate the possible
societal studies and dialogues concerning the
consequences of nanoparticles entering and
p e rceived dangers of nanotechnology with its
accumulating in the food chain. Indeed, some
investment strategy, and the resulting White
of the ongoing work by CBEN, and other
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
39
organisations such as NASA and the EPA,
concerns the ETC Group, who have called
has been alluded to above. However, it is
for a global moratorium on the manufacture
becoming increasingly clear that this work
of nanomaterials until such a time when
alone is not sufficient for the scope of these
their interactions with living systems are
issues. As Colvin (2002) notes:
more fully understood (McCullagh, 2002).
Such an appeal is well-placed within this
‘It is critical that more organisations and
precautionary worldview, and nano-
people devote time and money to these
advocates have had to respond quickly
questions. This requires a change in the
with a number of forceful counter-
current climate: of the [US$710 million in
arguments. Many of these claims stem from
funding for the NNI in the fiscal year 2003,
the diversity of envisaged nanotech
less than [US$500,000 is devoted to the
applications and products (i.e. essentially
study of environmental impact. It is difficult
a vast array of very small components),
to convince scientists, or funding managers,
the difficulties of defining nanotechnology,
to support environmental impact studies.
and its broad interdisciplinary scope.
The immediate payback for research that
Indeed, the convergence of a wide number
demonstrates ways of using nanomaterials to
of scientific disciplines within the field of
cure disease, for example, is greater than the
nanotechnology certainly complicates the
reward for uncovering that a nanomaterial
practicalities of enforcing such a ban,
may cause disease.’
especially when one considers that pushing
research underground may increase either
One way in which prevailing industry
the danger of deliberate misuse, or at least
attitudes may be influenced is through the
the difficulty of ensuring that usage remains
idea that information about unintended
within responsible boundaries.
effects (whatever its conclusions), rather
than alarming investors, in fact reassures,
As an alternative, nano-enthusiasts advocate
thus increasing the likelihood that viable
a more modest regulation structure combined
nanotechnology products are developed.
with robust civilian research. Such an
Most importantly, hard data on the
approach would focus work on the potential
environmental effects of nanomaterials could
risks and benefits of nanotechnology, whilst
go a long way to building the public’s trust
ensuring that safe practices are exported to
(Colvin, 2002). This is in contrast to, for
developing countries. (Indeed, it is in the
example, the controversy that surrounded the
interests of developing countries to adopt
pesticide DDT in the 1960s and early 1970s:
good practice, otherwise investment will
by refusing to acknowledge the demonstrable
flop). Thus, such a regime should be based
environmental harm caused by DDT, the US
on the monitoring of the sale of such
chemical industry lost a controversial but
technologies, rather than control. This
effective product, particularly for control of
situation is analogous to biotechnology: the
mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases.
DNA experience, for example, suggests that
a combination of self-regulation and
2 . 5 . 5 The regulation debate
government co-ordination can answer
The precautionary approach upholds that
legitimate safety concerns while allowing
regulatory action may be taken, based on the
scientific research to flourish (Reynolds,
possibility of significant environmental
2002). Thus, while there is no way of
damage, even before there is conclusive,
knowing, a priori, the unintended and higher
scientific evidence that the damage will occur
order consequences of nanotechnology, the
(European Environment Agency, 2003).
participation of environmental and social
Perhaps the most vigorous example of this
scientists in the field may allow for
40
important issues to be identified earlier, the
we are unlikely to witness any radical
right questions to be raised, and necessary
developments during the next 15 years unless
corrective actions to be taken. It does seem
a series of fundamental bre a k t h roughs occur
likely that some form of regulatory control
between now and then. However, as the
will be necessary to assure that
range of associated tool and fabrication
nanotechnology is developed safely – ‘safe
techniques begin to mature, the field is set to
designs, safe procedures and methods to test
become increasingly commonplace in the
for potentially hazardous assemblers can be
coming decades. Ultimately, then, the longer-
incorporated into standards by consensus of
t e rm structural impact of nanotechnology on
interested parties’ (Forrest, 1989). The
a whole range of sectors – in manufacturing,
greatest danger, however, appears to be
t r a n s p o rt, services and domestic practice –
intentional abuse of the technology, so
could be substantial in 30–50 years. These
certain aspects of development should be
changes are likely to be gradual as, on the
performed in a secure environment.
whole, the displacement of an old technology
by a new one tends to be both slow and
2.6 Discussion
incomplete (NSF, 2001).
While many of the nanotechnologies covere d
in this part of the re p o rt might appear
In the meantime, a number of well-founded
advanced, it is fair to conclude that most
short-term concerns remain, many of which
c o n t e m p o r a ry experimental capabilities in
revolve around issues of human health.
this area are still in their infancy. This means
Considering past experiences of industry
that it is extremely difficult to foresee many
and government mismanagement in this area
outcomes that developments in this field will
(notably through GM-related controversy),
bring over the next 10 years, let alone assess
nano-advocates would do well to sit up and
their likelihood. Initially, it is probable that
take note. For, although an externally
the impact of nanotechnology will be limited
imposed nanotech moratorium seems both
to a few specific products and services, where
unpractical and probably damaging at
consumers are willing (or able) to pay a
present, industry may find such a fate
p remium for new or improved perf o rm a n c e .
virtually self-imposed if they do not take
Looking further ahead, controversy surro u n d s
the issue of public acceptance seriously. This
the possibility of realising some of the wilder
report has shown some nano-advocate
visions of a nanotech-enabled future. This is
awareness of environmentally-sound practice.
in spite of the fact that many of these ideas
Industry must demonstrate a commitment to
stem from quite straightforw a rd concepts
this by funding the relevant research on a far
founded in solid science (Holister, 2002);
greater scale than currently witnessed.
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
41
3. Artificial Intelligence
and Robotics
3.1 Introduction
although not intuitively referred to as a
robot, nevertheless incorporates many of the
3.1.1 About AI and robotics
navigation and control techniques explored
AI has been one of the most controversial
in the context of mobile-robotics research.
domains of inquiry in computer science since
Furthermore, robots are not necessarily
it was first proposed in the 1950s. Defined as
dependent on hardware for their operation.
the part of computer science concerned with
It is possible, for instance, to conceive of
designing systems that exhibit the
intelligent entities that operate purely within
characteristics associated with human
information systems – the so-called ‘softbots’
intelligence, the field has attracted
or ‘software agents’ – as robots (Doyle and
researchers because of its ambitious goals
Dean, 1996). It is noteworthy, however, that
and enormous underlying intellectual
such distinctions between ‘hard’ and ‘soft’
challenges (National Research Council
are bound to fade in importance in the future
[NRC], 1999). The ultimate aim is to make
as physical agents enter into electronic
computer programmes that are capable of
communication with each other and with
solving problems and achieving goals in the
online information sources, and as
world as well as humans – the pursuit of so-
informational agents exploit perceptual and
called ‘strong AI’. This goal has caught the
motor mechanisms. It is difficult, then, to
attention of the media, but by no means do
state categorically exactly what constitutes
all AI researchers view strong AI as worth
a robot. This report, however, considers
investigating – excessive optimism in the
robotics research as the attempt to instil
1950s and 1960s concerning strong AI has
intelligent software with some degree of
given way to an appreciation of the extreme
motor capability. Since many of the major
difficulty of the problem (Copeland, 2000).
areas of AI research play an essential role in
To date, progress in this direction has been
work on robots, robotics will be considered
meagre. Because 50 years of failure
here as a sub-section of AI.
eventually starts to affect funding, the AI
field has diversified and experts have
3.1.2 Where are we now?
established themselves in other areas where
As alluded to above, the field of AI has not
they can be said to have had some success.
moved along as quickly as innovators have
These new areas are less concerned with the
predicted. One reason for this has been the
business of making computers think,
damaging cycle of hype and disappointment
focusing instead on what can be referred to
within the industry, and the accompanying
as ‘weak AI’ – the development of practical
rise and fall in research investment4 (pers.
technology for modelling aspects of human
comm., Murray Shanahan, Imperial College
behaviour (Goodwins, 2001). In this way, AI
London, 17 Jan 2003). This began in the
research has produced an extensive body of
1960s when general enthusiasm surrounding
principles, representations, and algorithms.
the prospects of AI moved in parallel with
Today, successful AI applications range from
the exciting developments of the computer.
custom-built expert systems to mass-
However, this optimism resulted in downfall
produced software and consumer electronics.
during the 1970s when the work failed to
produce, climaxing in the UK with the highly
Robotics, on the other hand, may be thought
damaging 1973 Lighthill Report – a
of as ‘the science of extending human motor
government commissioned paper from the
capabilities with machines’ (Trevelyan,
Science and Engineering Research Council
1999). However, a closer look at this
which damned AI and recommended
definition creates a more complicated
withdrawal of research funding. In addition,
picture. For example, a cruise missile,
the same kind of official doubts which the
42
Lighthill Report made explicit in the UK lay,
it is likely that the phenomenon developed in
less explicitly, behind a similar slow down in
reaction to the kind of historical tendencies
research funding in the US (Malcolm, 2001).
to oversell the industry alluded to earlier.
The next big rise in AI funding occurred in
the 1980s, mainly in reaction to Japanese
3.2 Aspects of Research
enthusiasm for the field. In Japan, the 5th
Generation project was born; the UK reacted
3 . 2 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
through the Alvey initiative, which now
The above section has described how
focused on ‘knowledge based systems’ so as
researchers have re-evaluated their
to avoid any awkward parallels between
expectations with regard to achieving strong
current research and the previously
AI. Associated with this reality check is the
condemned AI. Again, both projects were
recognition that classical attempts at
characterised by a lack of progress and AI
modelling AI, based upon the capabilities of
research failed to make it into the
digital computers to manipulate symbols, are
mainstream. Most recently, the early to mid
probably not sufficient to achieve anything
1990s has seen the emergence of software
resembling true intelligence. This is because
agents, and the resulting excitement has once
symbolic AI systems, as they are known, are
again sparked a rise in investment. In
designed and programmed rather than
addition, the field of robotics has become
trained or evolved. As a consequence, they
much more influential of late, particularly
function under rules and, as such, tend to be
through the entertainment industry. Many
very fragile, rarely proving effective outside
of these developments are described in more
of their assigned domain (Hsuing, 2002). In
detail later on in this report.
other words, symbolic AI is proving to be
only as smart as the programmer who has
Today, AI is about at the same place the PC
written the programmes in the first place.
industry was in 1978 (Brooks, 2001) – the
waves of enthusiasm that accompanied the
In realisation of this, scientists are beginning
developments of computers have long gone
to look much more closely at the mechanisms
and researchers are beginning to come to
of the brain and the way it learns, evolves
terms with how hard the problems of AI
and develops intelligence from a sense of
really are. However, technological know-how
being conscious (Aleksander, 2002). For
is not the only obstacle that the AI industry
example, AI software designers are beginning
faces – another is the purported ‘AI effect’
to team up with cognitive psychologists and
whereby the existence of AI in modern
use cognitive science concepts. Another
software products go largely unnoticed
example centres upon the work of the
despite the widespread use of such
‘connectionists’ who draw attention to
applications (Stottler Henke, 2002). Indeed,
computer arc h i t e c t u re, arguing that the
AI is considered by some researchers to be an
a rrangement of most symbolic AI
unimplementable technology: as soon as the
p rogrammes is fundamentally incapable
technology advances, the perspective shifts,
of exhibiting the essential characteristics
and the quality of intelligence passes to those
of intelligence to any useful degree. As an
activities that are still only in the human
a l t e rnative, connectionists aim to develop AI
domain (Joseph, 2001). For example, many
t h rough artificial neural networks (ANNs).
of those in industry do not use the term
Based on the stru c t u re of the nervous system,
‘artificial intelligence’ even when their
these ‘computational-cognitive models’ are
company’s products rely on some AI
designed to exhibit some form of learning
techniques (Stottler Henke, 2002). The exact
and ‘common-sense’ by drawing links
reasons for the AI effect are uncertain, but
between meanings (Hsiung, 2002). ANNs,
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
43
then, work in a similar fashion to the brain:
Davis, 1994). This, in turn, allows software
as information comes in, connections among
to automatically adapt to new or changing
p rocessing nodes are either strengthened (if
users and runtime environments, and to
the new evidence is consistent) or weakened
accommodate for the rapidly increasing
(if the link seems false) (Khan, 2002).
quantities of diverse data available today.
When designing programmes to tackle these
The emergence of ANNs reflects an
problems, AI researchers have a variety of
underlying paradigm change within the AI
learning methods at their disposal. However,
research community and, as a result, such
as alluded to above, ANNs represent one of
systems have undeniably received much
the most promising of these.
attention of late. However, regardless of their
success in creating interest, the fact remains
3.2.2.1 Artificial neural networks
that ANNs have not nearly been able to
There are many advantages of ANNs and
replace symbolic AI. As Grosz and Davis
advances in this field will increase their
(1994) remark: ‘[Symbolic AI has] produced
popularity. Their main value over symbolic
the technology that underlies the few
AI systems lies in the fact that they are
thousand knowledge-based expert systems
trained rather than programmed: they learn
used in industry today.’ A major challenge
to evolve to their environment, beyond the
for the next decade, then, is to significantly
care and attention of their creator (Hsuing,
extend this foundation to make possible new
2002). Other major advantages of ANNs lie
kinds of high-impact application systems. A
in their ability to classify and recognise
second major challenge will be to ensure that
patterns and to handle abnormal input data,
AI continues to integrate with related areas
a characteristic very important for systems
of computing research and other fields
that handle a wide range of data.
(Doyle and Dean, 1996). For example, the
Furthermore, many neural networks are
kinds of developments described in Section 2
biologically plausible, which means they may
for nanotechnology may go some way to
provide clues as to how the brain works as
accelerating progress in AI, particularly
they progress. Like the brain, the power of
through the sensor interface. For these
ANNs lies in their ability to process
reasons, the list of main research areas that
information in a parallel fashion (that is,
follows should be regarded as neither
process multiple chunks of data
exhaustive nor clear-cut. Indeed, future
simultaneously). This, however, is where the
categorisations will again change as the field
limitations of such systems begin to arise:
solves problems and identifies new ones.
unfortunately, machines today are serial –
they only execute one instruction at a time.
3 . 2 . 2 L e a r n i n g
As a consequence, modelling parallel
According to Daniel Weld (1995) of the
processing on serial machines can be a very
University of Washington, machine learning
time-consuming process (Matthews, 2000a).
addresses two interrelated problems: ‘the
A second problem relates to the fact that it is
development of software that improves
very difficult to understand their internal
automatically through experience and the
reasoning processes and therefore to obtain
extraction of rules from a large volume of
an explanation for any particular conclusion.
specific data.’ Systems capable of exhibiting
As a result, they are best used when the
such characteristics are important because
results of a model are more important than
they have the potential to reach higher levels
understanding how the model works. To this
of performance than systems that must be
end, these systems are often used in stock
modified manually to deal with situations
market analysis, fingerprint identification,
their designers did not anticipate (Grosz and
character recognition, speech recognition,
44
and scientific analysis of data (Stottler
factory automation, military transportation
Henke, 2002).
scheduling, and medical treatment planning.
These will be covered in more detail below.
3 . 2 . 3 Reasoning about plans,
programs and action
3 . 2 . 4 Logical AI
Intelligent systems must be able to plan – to
This type of reasoning concerns what a
determine appropriate actions for their
programme knows about the world in
perceived situation, and then execute them
general, the facts of the specific situation in
and monitor the results. However, in spite of
which it must act, and the goals that it must
the fact that this area has been under active
accomplish (Grosz and Davis, 1994). Such
research since the 1950s, AI planning
concepts are held within the programme in
applications are furthest from human-level
the form of sentences of some mathematical
(Grosz and Davis, 1994). Ordinary people,
logical language. The most successful
for example, manage to accomplish an
example of this is an expert system, created
extraordinary number of complex tasks just
when a ‘knowledge engineer’ interviews
using simple, informal thought processes
experts in a certain domain and tries to
based on a large amount of common
embody their knowledge in a computer
knowledge. AI, on the other hand, is far
programme for carrying out some task, such
behind humans in using such reasoning
as diagnosis. However, the usefulness of
except for limited jobs, and tasks that rely
current expert systems also depends on their
heavily on common-sense reasoning are
users demonstrating a certain level of
usually poor candidates for AI applications
common-sense too.
(Stottler Henke, 2002). In the past,
researchers have mainly had to rely on the
3.2.4.1 Algorithms and genetic programming
development of algorithms that
An algorithm is defined as a ‘detailed
‘automatically construct and execute
sequence of actions to perform to accomplish
sequences of primitive commands in order to
some task’ (FOLDOC, 2003). One branch of
achieve high-level goals’ (Weld, 1995). More
algorithm theory, genetic programming, is
recently, the field of plausible reasoning has
currently receiving much attention. This is a
demonstrated its feasibility in tackling the
technique for getting software to solve a task
problem of representing, understanding, and
by ‘mating’ random programmes and
controlling the behaviour of agents or other
selecting the fittest in millions of generations.
systems in the context of incomplete or
Khan (2002) elaborates: ‘Genetic algorithms
incorrect information (Weld, 1995). Another
use natural selection, mutating and
development that may lead to significant
crossbreeding within a pool of sub-optimal
advances in the area of artificial reasoning is
scenarios. Better solutions live and worse
fuzzy logic. Traditional Western logic systems
ones die – allowing the programme to
assume that things are either in one category
discover the best option without trying every
or another. Yet in everyday life, we know this
possible combination along the way.’
is often not precisely so. Fuzzy logic, then,
provides a way of taking into account our
3 . 2 . 5 C o l l a b o r a t i o n
common-sense knowledge that most things
The ubiquity of computers, networks and
are a matter of degree when a computer is
distributed information resources means that
automatically making a decision (Stottler
collaboration between these entities is
Henke, 2002). Thus, in spite of the
important. The field of multiagent co-
difficulties inherent in this field of AI,
ordination concerns itself with the problem
planning systems have been successfully
of endowing agents with the ability to
developed for several tasks to date, including
communicate with each other to reach
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
45
mutually beneficial agreements (Grosz and
purpose of communicative actions, such as
Davis, 1994). In addition, specialised
spoken utterances, written texts, and the
techniques must also be developed that
gestures that accompany them and an ability
enable an agent to represent and reason
to produce such communicative actions
about the capabilities of other agents (Weld,
appropriately. These abilities, in their most
1995). These types of systems are dealt with
general form, are ‘far beyond current
by the EU Disappearing Computer project
scientific understanding and computing
and are expanded upon later (Section
technology’ (Weld, 1995). However, the
3.3.5.1) due to their focus on spatially
potential relevance of natural language
distributed artefacts.
processing to industry is immense, as such
systems could be central to the next
3 . 2 . 6 P e r c e p t i o n
generation of intelligent interface.
Many AI systems require an ability to
handle several different types of perceptual
3.2.7 Human–computer interaction
information (Grosz and Davis, 1994).
This area of AI follows on from perception
The most important of these are expanded
in that people use a number of different
upon below.
media to communicate, including: spoken,
signed and written languages; gestures;
3.2.6.1 Pattern recognition
sounds; drawings; diagrams; and maps
The speed with which people extract
(Grosz and Davis, 1994). In particular,
information from images makes vision the
knowledge representation is important due to
preferred perceptual modality for most
its powerful effect on the prospects for a
people in the majority of tasks, thus implying
computer or person to draw conclusions or
that easy-to-use computers should be capable
make inferences from that information
of both understanding and synthesising
(Stottler Henke, 2002). Consequently, work
images. One of the goals of computer-vision
in this area seeks to discover expressive,
research is image understanding and
convenient, efficient, and appropriate
classification. Depending on the application,
methods for representing information about
the imagery to be understood might include a
all aspects of the world.
scanned document page, a mug shot, an
aerial photograph, or a video of a home or
3.2.8 Public funding
office scene (Weld, 1995). Typical state-of-
A c c o rding to hi-tech consultancy, Gart n e r
the-art tasks include facial recognition; object
Dataquest (cited in BBC, 2002), one billion
recognition and reconstruction; hand
PCs have been sold across the world, with
tracking and gesture recognition; and
numbers anticipated to rise rapidly in the
document analysis and recognition. However,
next few years, reaching the two billion
while current computer-vision techniques are
mark in by 2008. The level of
capable of impressive feats under controlled
i n t e rconnectedness between such machines
conditions, such techniques often prove to be
is also set to rise: in this decade, half a
brittle and non-robust under real-world
billion human-operated machines and
conditions (Grosz and Davis, 1994).
countless computers – in the form of
appliances, sensors, controllers, and the like
3.2.6.2 Understanding natural language
– will be linked (Dertouzos, 1999). This, in
The ultimate goal of natural language-
t u rn, will lead to an explosion in the
processing research is to create systems able
I n t e rnet economy. To d a y, some US$50
to communicate with people in natural
billion changes hands over this system, but
languages. Such communication requires an
by 2030 this flow will amount to US$4
ability to understand the meaning and
trillion of today’s dollars, or one quarter of
46
the world’s economy. Obviously, in such
3.2.8.1 The US
a future scenario, the extraord i n a r i l y
Historically in the US, the concept of AI
sophisticated systems used to contro l
originated in the private sector, but the
communications, power, stock exchanges,
growth of the field has depended largely on
and monetary assets can break down and
public investments. Today, computer science
might come under attack. To d a y, given the
research in the US is funded by a number of
relative complexity and unreliability of the
governmental agencies. Total US government
I n t e rnet, it is not surprising that
computer science research expenditures in
commentators view this scenario with
1998 were US$1399 million, with
i n c reasing trepidation. AI, then, is seen by
approximately one third devoted to what
many as having an essential role in a future
was described as ‘basic research’ (Schneider
w h e re commercial and military inform a t i o n
and Robb, 2001). Three agencies (NSF,
w a rf a re is a major, perhaps dominant,
DARPA, and the Department of Energy
characteristic. In addition, AI is touted by
[DOE]) in the US together support US$365
many (e.g. see Dertouzos, 1999) as having
million of this work, and the NSF is
the potential to greatly improve human
responsible for funding the lion’s share
p roductivity and ease of use within this
(Schneider and Robb, 2001). In addition, a
p rospective network.
number of other agencies are of note. These
include the National Institutes of Health
As computer science, and AI in part i c u l a r,
(NIH) and NASA which have also pursued
is considered to be of strategic import a n c e ,
AI applications of particular relevance to
it is worth here briefly examining
their own separate agendas (NRC, 1999).
g o v e rnment funding in this area. In general,
computer science receives a relatively small
Of these institutions, DARPA is credited with
p ro p o rtion of the re s e a rch funding in many
considerable advancement of the field from
countries, even if anecdotal evidence
the 1960s onwards. This hardly comes as
suggests that the fractions are incre a s i n g
surprising when one considers the close link
(Schneider and Robb, 2001). This is in spite
that exists between the military and
of the fact that public funding has played an
computer science – in fact, the early
i m p o rtant part in AI re s e a rch in the past,
development of computing was virtually
l a rgely because of the field’s high-risk
exclusively limited to military purposes
conceptual challenges. However, the picture
(Matthews, 2000b). The most famous
is complicated by the fact that intern a t i o n a l
example of this concerns the development of
comparisons of re s e a rch funding in this are a
the Internet, in which DARPA played a
a re difficult to make, since diff e re n t
central role in the 1970s and 1980s5. More
countries use diff e rent funding methods.
recently, less visible but arguably equally
France and Japan, for example, rely heavily
significant developments have come to the
on national re s e a rch institutes and
fore. For example, a 1994 report by the
laboratories, rather than expecting most
AAAI paraphrased a former director of
re s e a rch to be done in university
DARPA, saying that DART (the intelligent
d e p a rtments. In addition, funding for AI
system used for troop and material
re s e a rch is re p o rted far less thoroughly than
deployment for Operation Desert Shield and
it is for nanotechnology. Consequently,
Operation Desert Storm in 1990 and 1991)
relevant information has often been
‘justified DARPA’s entire investment in AI
o b s c u re, and it has been necessary instead
technology’ (cited in NRC, 1999). One
to re p o rt funding in computer science in
consequence of this is that modern-day battle
general. As a rule, AI budgets will re p re s e n t
relies heavily on data networks. This has
a small pro p o rtion of these figure s .
been stressed by A. Michael Andrews, the US
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
47
Army’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for
3.2.8.2 Japan and Europe
Research and Technology, saying:
Although the US has played a central role in
‘Everything relies on a reliable and secure
developing the AI re s e a rch agenda, other
network. Without it, our vulnerability is
countries and regions have also played their
exposed’ (quoted in Machan, 2002).
p a rt. One of the most notable examples of
this occurred in the early 1980s when both
To d a y, DARPA’s funding for AI re s e a rch is
Japan and Europe dramatically incre a s e d
s p read among a number of pro g r a m m e
their funding of AI re s e a rch, partly as a
a reas, each with a specific application focus.
reaction to the newly emerged expert systems
For example, funding for AI is included in
i n d u s t ry. One of the most ambitious pro j e c t s
the Intelligent Systems and Software
u n d e rtaken was the 5th Generation
p rogramme, which received roughly US$60
Computer Systems Project, an attempt to
million in 1995. This applied re s e a rc h
combine European ingenuity with Japanese
p rogramme is intended to leverage work in
industrial skill in order to develop a new sort
intelligent systems and software that
of AI that might rival the US’s domination in
s u p p o rts military objectives, enabling
the field. However, 5th Generation pro j e c t
i n f o rmation systems to assist in decision-
technology never really made it into the
making tasks in stressful, time-sensitive
m a i n s t ream, largely because its inflexible
situations. Additional DARPA funding for
t h e o retical basis was found to be inferior to
AI is contained in the Intelligent Integration
the less elaborate, ro u g h - a n d - re a d y
of Information programme, which is
a p p roaches to AI development pursued by the
intended to improve commanders’ aware n e s s
US (Joseph, 2001). The latest collaborative
of battlefield conditions. DARPA continues
attempt by these two parties to break US
to fund some of the more basic re s e a rch in
hegemony in AI is the Real World Computing
AI as well. Such funding is included in its
P roject (RWCP), or the 6th Generation
i n f o rmation sciences budget, which declined
Computing Project, a 10-year pro g r a m m e
f rom US$35 million to US$22 million
that started in 1992 (around the end of the
annually between 1991 and 1996. The AI
5th Generation project). This time the RW C P
funding supports work in software
has a much broader remit: to focus on a
technology development, human-computer
variety of diff e rent ‘softer’ technologies that
i n t e rfaces, micro e l e c t ronics, and speech
use neural or fuzzy techniques. Thus, the
recognition and understanding (NRC, 1999). re s e a rch components are much more spre a d
out, and appear to have been selected with an
In addition to DARPA, NASA has also built
eye for more practical applications of the
up a reputation for high-risk, high-impact AI
latest technology (Joseph, 2001).
re s e a rch. One obvious development is the
Pathfinder robot, which used a number of
In addition to the combined effort above,
m o d e rn AI and robotics techniques to explore
both parties have also more recently
the surface of Mars. Another is the Deep
established research programmes of their
Space One mission in which an ‘autonomous’
own. In Japan, for example, the National
c o n t roller (i.e. without human interv e n t i o n )
Institute of Informatics (NII), an inter-
was able to fly a spacecraft for part of a
university research institute under the
mission and exceeded all perf o rmance goals.
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
NASA is expected to continue exploring this
Science and Technology (MEXT), is pursuing
technology heavily into the future and, based
a programme to expand the field of IT.
on these earlier successes, can be considere d
Established in April 2000, intelligent systems,
as a major innovative player within this field
which form one component of MEXT’s
( H e n d l e r, 2000).
seven-sided agenda, aim to develop advanced
48
technology for next-generation symbiotic
AI are virtually endless: one measure of the
robots and systems, and new models for
growth of practical applications is the
information sharing and exchanging (NII,
number of patents mentioning the term AI
2002). This programme is closely linked to
and related terms. According to the US
the Japanese government’s seven-year plan to
Patent Office, only about 100 patents
develop humanoid robots. In fact, Japan is
specifically mentioned AI a decade ago; in
the clear leader in using industrial robots as
contrast, in 1999 about 1,700 patents
it accounts for over half of all units in the
mentioned AI with another 3,900 or so
world (The Economist, 2001).
mentioning related terms (Buchanan and
Uthurusamy, 1999). However, it is worth
The EU, too, is engaged in AI-re l a t e d
bearing in mind that the actual prevalence of
re s e a rch. Perhaps the most ambitious of this
emerging AI technology may be greater than
is related to the EU Framework VI pro p o s a l
this due to classification-related difficulties
for spending 16.29 billion over 2002–2006,
and the fact that such products are more
of which 27% is destined for IT (Schneider
likely to be embedded in some larger system
and Robb, 2001). In addition to central EU
than a stand-alone machine. In general, such
funding, individual European states are also
applications are used to increase the
developing their own re s e a rch agendas. In the
productivity of knowledge workers by
UK, the Information Te c h n o l o g y / C o m p u t e r
intelligently automating their tasks, or to
Science (IT/CS) Programme in the Engineering
make technical products of all kinds easier to
and Physical Sciences Research Council
use for both workers and consumers through
(EPSRC) budget for 2000/2001 is £70.3
intelligent automation of their complex
million; investment in computer science
functions (Stottler Henke, 2002). It is
re s e a rch is about 45% of this (EPSRC, 2003).
possible now to identify four families of
Other EU countries are also of intere s t ,
intelligent systems that have broad
p a rticularly Germ a n y, France and
applicability across a wide range of sectors
Scandinavia, where the latter is part i c u l a r l y
(Grosz and Davis, 1994). These are
well advanced in the use of computing and
intelligent simulation systems; intelligent
I T. However, other smaller countries are not
information resources; intelligent project
making much in the way of substantial
coaches; and robotics.
commitments to computer science re s e a rch.
3 . 3 . 2 Intelligent simulation systems
3.3 Applications
These applications are commonly used in a
number of different scenarios. First, an
3 . 3 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
Intelligent Simulation System (ISS) may be
The above section has demonstrated the
generated to learn more about the behaviour
diverse and multifaceted nature of AI
of an original system, when the original
research, and this work has resulted in an
system is not available for manipulation. The
extensive body of principles, representations,
modelling of climate systems is a good
algorithms, and spin-off technologies (Weld,
example. Second, the original system may
1995). The relative state of infancy of
not be available because of cost or safety
research into strong AI means that this field
reasons, or it may not be built yet and the
can be put aside for the time being. Rather,
purpose of learning about it is to design it
this section will attempt to elaborate upon
better (Stottler Henke, 2002). Third, an ISS
weak applications of AI, where, it is fair to
might be employed for training purposes in
say, considerable effort in this area has
anticipation of dangerous situations, when
resulted in some real-world product success.
the cost of real-world training is prohibitive.
In fact, the actual and potential uses of weak
Such technologies are particularly well-
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
49
advanced in military applications through the
idea embedded in a programme. By 2006, it
simulation of war ‘games’. Another very big
is anticipated that companies will be able to
business in the realm of ISSs is the video-
use this kind of software to analyse customer
game market, comparable to the film
feedback, whether it comes from the Internet,
business in size. AI systems have become
call centres, or sidewalk surveys. Market
fundamental to this industry because, unlike
research divisions, too, will be able to better
in film, it is often up to a computer or game
track competitors, sales trends and research
console to create a sense of reality for the
extracted from huge volumes of patents,
game-player. Such standards of realism are
scientific articles and news reports (Dalesio,
going up all the time (Broersma, 2001).
2002). These developments hint of the ‘next
big thing’ in industry – ‘business intelligence’.
3.3.3 Intelligent information resources
These systems, already in limited application
Intelligent systems must be able to provide
today, improve on data mining services by
access to a wide variety of information,
presenting their findings in more useful
including visual and audio data, in addition
formats – using advanced visualisation tools
to commonplace structured databases (Grosz
– and by deploying AI to look for patterns
and Davis, 1994). One development in this
that human users might not look for. The
area that is receiving much attention is ‘data
potential value of such technology to
mining’, the extraction of general regularities
business has already created fierce
from online data (Weld, 1995). This area is
competition: established software companies
becoming increasingly important due to the
like IBM, Microsoft and Oracle, along with
fact that all types of commercial and
younger competitors like Business Objects,
government institutions are now logging
MicroStrategy and Moreover.com, are vying
huge volumes of data and require the means
for their share of a market that is expected to
to optimise the use of these vast resources
grow from US$3.5 billion in 2002 to
(Stottler Henke, 2002). Indeed, according
US$8.8 billion in 2004 (Miller, 2001).
to the market research firm IDC (cited in
Dalesio, 2002), revenue from sales of all
In general, the above examples carry out
types of data mining software are anticipated
tasks for one Web site or organisation.
to grow from about US$540 million this year
However, some innovators envisage the
to about US$1.5 billion in 2005.
technology going a lot further than this.
For instance, it is not hard to imagine a
Looking beyond data mining, other
future world of semi-autonomous agents,
technologies are also appearing on the
roaming the Web and carrying out various
horizon. For example, SilverEgg
tasks for their owners. Such agents could be
Technologies, a Japanese venture company,
given a rough idea of what we want, do
have developed Aigent, a system that
some comparison-shopping, and order the
observes which product categories a
best deal, just like a real personal assistant.
customer clicks on, and then makes
Ultimately, virtual organisations composed
intelligent guesses about that customer’s
of autonomous agents, which could form
preferences (Joseph, 2001). Another
spontaneously to carry out a specific task
development in this area concerns the
and then disband again, might be possible
‘heuristic’: ‘A rule of thumb, simplification,
(Broersma, 2001).
or educated guess that reduces or limits the
search for solutions in domains that are
3 . 3 . 4 Intelligent project coaches
difficult and poorly understood’ (FOLDOC,
This section re p resents the most diverse
2003). Thus, in terms of AI, heuristics is a
range of applications: intelligent pro j e c t
way of trying to discover something or an
coaches can function as co-workers, assisting
50
and collaborating in a wide range of
valuable practical applications of this
design or operations teams for complex
t e c h n o l o g y, developments in this area are
systems. For basic personal use, ‘interf a c e
expected to advance quickly. For example,
agents’ are computer programs that
automated language translation also looks
employ AI techniques to provide active
set to mature sometime between 10–15
assistance to a user during computer- b a s e d
years from present.
tasks. These agents acquire their competence
by learning from the user as well as fro m
P e rhaps the most ambitious examples of
agents assisting other users. To date,
AI development that are currently occurr i n g
several prototype agents have been built
in this area relate to computer learning.
using this technique (Maes, 1994). For
One example is the ANN, Falcon. Designed
example, US start-ups, such as Saff ro n
by San Diego-based HNC Software, Falcon
Technology and Manna, are marketing
maintains a profile of how, when, and where
s o f t w a re tools that learn the individual
customers use their credit cards and, fro m
u s e r’s buying patterns and make
this, develops an ability to discern ‘deviant’
personalised recommendations accord i n g l y.
b e h a v i o u r. To date, this system is used by
nine of the ten leading US credit card
In addition to interface agents, the next
companies: they claim it has improved
10 years are likely to see rapid AI
fraud detection rates from 30–70% (Khan,
development occurring in speech re c o g n i t i o n
2002). Another example – and one that is
( H e n d l e r, 2000). Indeed, computer speech
p robably the most challenging in ANN
input has already arrived and is
development today – is being undertaken
c o m m e rcially available – many telephone
by DARPA, who have launched an initiative
s e rvices use speech recognition at present.
to develop a cognitive (i.e. thinking) system.
In addition, cell phones without keypads are
The aim of this system is to reason in a
likely to reach the market as early as next
variety of ways, learn from experience,
y e a r. These devices are anticipated to
and adapt to surprises. In the words of
enhance the use and appeal of the mobile
Melymuka (2002): ‘It will be aware of its
I n t e rnet by allowing users to call up any
behaviour and explain itself…It will be able
Web page from a mobile device just by
to anticipate diff e rent scenarios and pre d i c t
speaking its address. Voice recognition also
and plan for novel futures.’ The ultimate
has security applications: in a demo at the
aim is to develop cognitive systems capable
3GSM World Congress in Febru a ry 2002,
of assisting or replacing soldiers on
Mitsubishi Electric demonstrated a SIM card
h a z a rdous duty or civilians responding
featuring voice validation software
to toxic spills or disasters.
developed by Domain Dynamics Ltd. The
s o f t w a re provides a ‘biometric template’ that
In addition to AIs that focus on novel ways
can recognise a person’s voice to pro p e r l y
of learning, other programmes exist which
identify a user – ‘a necessity when pro v i d i n g
can be said to primarily reason. Perhaps the
access to corporate or private databases over
most successful example in operation today
the Intern e t ’ ( M o k h o ff, 2002). With re g a rd
is the Smart A i r p o rt Operations Centre,
to speech re c o g n i t i o n ’s natural successor,
a logistics programme created by Ascent
natural language processing, such
Te c h n o l o g y. This AI uses genetic algorithms
technology is, to date, poorly developed and
to plan airport timetables by calculating
computers are not yet able to even appro a c h
how to optimise complicated scenarios.
the ability of humans to extract meaning
Other reasoning programmes are based on
f rom natural languages (Stottler Henke,
heuristic classification – a form of expert
2002). However, due to the many potentially
system – and are generally considered the
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
51
most feasible given the present knowledge of
In spite of these significant challenges, there
AI. These AIs have found their way into
are some good examples of AI-controlled
cockpits of fighter-pilots, where their main
robotic systems. For instance, TriPath
role is to reduce the workload on the pilot
Imaging has built FocalPoint, a diagnosis
by providing advice in certain stre s s f u l
expert system that examines Pap smears for
situations (Matthews, 2000b).
signs of cervical cancer. FocalPoint screens
five million slides each year, or about 10% of
3.3.5 Robotics
all slides taken in the US and, like human lab
A distinction has already been drawn
technicians in training, teaches itself by
above (Section 3.1.1) between ro b o t s
practising on slides that pathologists have
working in informational environments
already diagnosed. Thus, one big advantage
and robots with physical abilities. One
of such a system is that, if implemented
advantage of the former is that there is
properly, FocalPoint allows you to replicate
little need for investment in additional
your very best people (Khan, 2002).
expensive or unreliable robotic hard w a re
A second example and, again, perhaps the
as existing computer systems and networks
most ambitious of all, concerns DARPA,
p rovide adequate sensor and eff e c t o r
who are in the process of developing an
e n v i ronments. On the other hand, the
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV).
kinds of robotics systems elaborated on
According to Boeing (2002), the UCAV
h e re, physical robots, re q u i re
system is designed to ‘prove the technical
mechanisation of various physical sensory
feasibility of multiple UCAVs autonomously
and motor abilities (Doyle and Dean,
performing extremely dangerous and high-
1996). The challenges involved in
priority combat missions.’ In a typical
p roviding such a latter environment are
mission scenario, ‘multiple UCAVs will be
considerable, especially when complete
equipped with pre-programmed objectives
automation is sought, as in Honda’s
and preliminary targeting information from
humanoid ASIMO pro j e c t6. Thus, rather
ground-based mission planners. Operations
than focus on the ambitious and distant
can then be carried out autonomously, but
goal of relative autonomy, this re p o rt picks
can also be revised en route by UCAV
up on Trevelyan (1999) who points out
controllers should new objectives dictate.’
that complete automation is often
If the program is a success, the US DoD
unfeasible, impossible, or simply unwanted.
expects to begin fielding UCAV weapon
Indeed, much of today’s robotics re s e a rc h
systems in the 2008 time-frame.
focuses instead on far humbler goals, such
as simplicity, force control, calibration and
3.3.5.1 Robot teams
a c c u r a c y. Thus, we can see that, to some
Expanding upon the concept of collaboration
extent, the field of robotics has followed
highlighted above, one area of AI that is
similar lines as that of AI, attempting to
showing much promise is ‘ubiquitous
rebound from the overly optimistic
computing’ using information artefacts:
p redictions of the 1950s and 1960s, and
future forms of everyday objects that
coming up against more contemporary
represent a merging of current everyday
p roblems not dissimilar to the AI eff e c t .
objects with the capabilities of information
Indeed, while few of the innovations that
processing and exchange. For example, the
e m e rge from the work of ro b o t i c s
EU-funded initiative of the Information
re s e a rchers ever appear in the form of
Society Technologies (IST) research
robots, or even parts of robots, their re s u l t s
programme aims to show how such artefacts
a re widely applied in industrial machines
can be made to work together, and in
not defined as so (Trevelyan, 1999).
particular how they provide behaviour or
52
functionality that exceeds the sum of their
products, rather than their degree of
parts (The Disappearing Computer, 2003). It
intelligence.
is from these ideas that the concept of robot
teams begins to emerge. Robot teams
As alluded to above, one of the most
potentially have applications in a wide range
c o m m e rcially valuable frontiers of AI is
of areas. This is because robots working in
e - c o m m e rce, where technicians are hoping
teams ‘allow for solutions in which
to make the online world simpler and more
knowledge, expertise, and motor capability
capable at the same time. Robots, too, are
may be distributed in time and space’ (Maes,
potentially big business for the hi-tech
1994). Thus, while individual robots may
companies pre p a red to invest in them:
only have limited capacity, robots working
investment in robots world-wide incre a s e d
together in groups might be able to perform
markedly during 2000, with almost 100,000
complex tasks. These include military
new units being installed, raising the total
surveillance, mine removal, automated
stock of robots to 750,000 at the end of
household tasks, large scale laboratory
2000 (The Economist, 2001).
projects (such as those used in the Human
Genome Project) and assembly. In this way,
3.3.6.1 The US and Japan
most military planners believe that robots
In general, the US is more widely re g a rded for
and remote-controlled sensors represent the
its private software development than it is for
future of information collection on the
its hard w a re, for which Japan is most highly
battle-field (Jeremiah, 1995).
thought of (Shim, 2002). Indeed, as noted
e a r l i e r, the number of US AI-related patents
3 . 3 . 6 Corporate funding
in existence increased from 100 in 1989, to
While Section 3.3.5 has demonstrated the
1,700 in 1999. Private firms, including larg e
significant commercial interest in AI, the
m a n u f a c t u rers of electronics and computers,
picture for corporate investment in this area
as well as major users of IT, hold a vast
is a far less coherent. To date, unlike the field
majority of these patents. The top three of
of nanotechnology, no significant overview of
these are IBM (297 patents), Hitachi (192)
AI funding seems to exist in the literature.
and Motorola (114), although another 17
Having said this, however, the level of
companies make an appearance on the list7.
corporate support for AI application
S i m i l a r l y, many of Japan’s major companies
development is, in all likelihood,
have plans for AI. According to Shim (2002),
considerable: according to Henry McDonald,
the trick for major companies ‘is to time things
Director of the NASA Ames Research
right so as to be on the cutting edge of the next
Centre, one-third of computer-science
big thing.’ For example, one area in which
funding comes from government and two-
Sony – one of the most successful companies
thirds from industry (cited in Krill, 2002).
in the history of consumer electronics – has
This is not to say, though, that the interests
invested in heavily is the home-robot market,
of the scientific and business worlds
t h rough its Entertainment Robot America
necessarily concur; while AI may pose many
division. Sony’s latest development in this are a
fascinating questions for the former, such
c o n c e rns Aibo Recognition, a mechanical dog
technology has to be commercially viable in
granted with the ability to recognise its owner’s
the latter (Broersma, 2001). For this reason,
name, voice and face, as well as automatically
no industry has yet identified a strong motive
re c h a rge itself. By infusing Aibo with incre a s e d
for developing strong AI and it is unlikely
AI, such as voice and face recognition, the
that scientists and business people will get
hope is to give Aibo owners the ability to
any closer together in the future. The central
interact with a robot at an unprecedented
focus here, then, must be on the utility of
level (Spooner, 2002).
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
53
3.4 Reality and Hype
One famous sceptic of AI is Hubert Dreyfus,
who says that a computer will never be
3.4.1 Introduction
intelligent unless it can display a good
The kinds of applications outlined above
command of common-sense (Dreyfus, 1992).
necessarily rely to some degree on weak AI.
Dreyfus then follows up by saying that
It might seem paradoxical, then, when one
computers will never be able to fully grasp
considers that it is the area of strong AI that
common-sense, since much of our common-
features more prominently in the public
sense is on a ‘know-how’ basis. For example,
imagination. To begin with, it is a well
the notion that one solid cannot easily
known fact that many revered members of
penetrate another is common-sense, yet the
the academic community deem the
knowledge required to ride a bicycle is not
achievement of machine intelligence reaching,
something you can gain from a book, or
or even surpassing our own, as an
from someone telling you. You can only
inevitability (Barry, 2001). Most famously,
learn through experience. Thus, since current
this category includes Ray Kurzweil, inventor
computers can only really ‘represent’ things,
of the first reading machine for the blind,
the possibility of taking a skill, emotion, or
who believes that ‘within 30 years, we will
something else equally abstract, and
have an understanding of how the human
changing it into a series of zeros and ones is,
brain works that will give us templates of
according to Dreyfus, close to impossible
intelligence for developing strong AI’ (cited
(Matthews, 1999). A second famous doubter
in Anderson, 2001). In fact, as this section
is John Searle, who, with his Chinese Room
makes clear, the future of strong AI is highly
analogy, has responded directly to Turing
uncertain, with considerable controversy
(cited in Goodwins, 2001):
present within the literature concerning
whether it is even possible or not. The
‘ Take a room with two slots in the wall, an
primary aim here, then, is to consider the
English-speaking man inside and a ru l e b o o k .
technological and philosophical constraints
The rulebook tells him how to deal with
within the field. From this, it should be clear
Chinese sentences that are pushed through the
that the issues raised by the possibility of
slot – how to choose characters with which to
strong AI are so fundamental that they cross
re p l y, and what order to send them back out
many academic boundaries, including
t h rough the second slot. The responses may be
philosophy, sociology and psychology.
p e rfect Chinese, but it does not logically follow
on that the man is actually understanding the
3 . 4 . 2 Barriers to strong AI
language as a native speaker would, rather
The standard test against which the possibility
than merely processing it.’
of strong AI is often judged concerns Alan
Tu r i n g ’s 1950 article, Computing Machinery
Although a number of convincing rebuttals
and Intelligence, in which the author discusses
to the kinds of philosophical arguments
the conditions for considering a machine to be
presented above exist, there can be no doubt
intelligent (Turing, 1950). He argues that if a
that such positions present intellectually
machine could successfully pretend to be
powerful barriers to the ultimate goal of AI
human to a knowledgeable observer then you
research. Following on from this, it might
c e rtainly should consider it intelligent
appear that opinion in this area is neatly
( M c C a rt h y, 2003). This test would satisfy most
polarised. However, the picture is
people but not all philosophers, some of which
significantly complicated by the fact that
have challenged the ‘inevitable’ achievement of
many researchers consider strong AI as
s t rong AI based upon the assertion that the
neither particularly likely nor even desirable.
hypothesis of strong AI is itself false.
In fact, many of the present obstacles to
54
strong AI research are far more mundane,
Brooks (2002), computer vision systems can
having been developed as a result of new
do a few things with great skill, but still after
scientific interest in the mechanisms of the
40 years of effort they are not good at the
brain and the way they learn, evolve and
things humans and many animals do
develop intelligence from a sense of being
effortlessly. Secondly, robots lack the
conscious. To begin with, although
dexterity of the human hand, a primary
computers are certainly becoming faster, such
ingredient in the types of manufacturing that
achievements do not necessarily correspond
have moved to low-cost locations. According
with computers becoming more intelligent.
to Brooks, ‘low-cost dextrous manipulation’
For, as described by Jaron Lanier (cited in
is essential if progress is to be made. At
Ho, 2002c) as the ‘great shame’ of computer
present, however, even high-cost dextrous
science, Moore’s law in hardware
manipulation is beyond researchers.
development must be starkly contrasted with
Furthermore, such challenges are unlikely to
the fact that computer engineers do not seem
be met in the next few years, possibly
to be able to write software much better as
requiring 30–40 years before such
computers get more advanced.
technologies are refined.
So far, this report has largely focused on
3 . 4 . 3 A future for strong AI?
ways in which scientists model part of what
In spite of the many fundamental barr i e r s
we know about our capabilities as sentient
highlighted above, the fields of AI and
beings, rather than attempting to provide
robotics are replete with many wonderf u l l y
true sentience. However, even if the ability to
inventive predictions, a domain where re a l i t y
programme software advances rapidly within
and science fiction often meet. Indeed, it is
the next few decades, it seems likely that the
likely that in the next two decades ‘we’ll see
AI laboratories of the day will be incapable
m o re and better capabilities that we tend to
of providing the kind of environment
attribute as awareness’ ( H e n d l e r, 2000).
necessary for generating anything resembling
H o w e v e r, it is unlikely that machines will ever
well-rounded intelligence. This idea stems
have human awareness in the philosophical
largely from the work of Rodney Brooks of
sense of the term, although they may come
the MIT who has worked hard in recent
close in the long term. Rather, we can expect
years to challenge prevailing attitudes
to see classical AI going on to produce more
towards AI research8. Humphrys (1997)
and more sophisticated applications in
builds on these ideas by asserting that you
restricted domains, such as expert systems,
can’t expect to build a single, isolated AI
chess programs and Internet agents. At the
alone in a laboratory and expect to simulate
same time, the next 30 years will pro d u c e
much intelligence. This is because, unless AIs
new types of animal-inspired machines that
are provided with space in which to evolve a
a re more ‘messy’ and unpredictable than any
rich culture, with repeated social interaction
we have seen before – less rationally
with things that are like them, you cannot
intelligent but more rounded and whole
really expect to get beyond a certain stage.
( H u m p h rys, 1997).
In addition to software development,
One potentially far-reaching development
significant challenges also exist in the
involves side-stepping the seemingly polarised
development of more artificially intelligent
weak/strong AI debate through the
robots. For example, while computer vision
development of cyborg technology, the
is good at certain tasks, there also are many
applications of which could lead to humans
things it is not particularly good at, such as
having certain physiological processes aided
general object recognition. According to
or controlled by mechanical or electronic
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
55
devices. The most high-profile demonstration
many research programmes (NRC, 1999).
in this area concerns ‘robo-rat’, which,
However, in general, less attention is paid to
through the implantation of electrodes into
the implications of weak AI, even though
the parts of the brain responsible for sensing
many of the applications of this field, as
reward and for stimulation from the left and
demonstrated above, are in operation today.
right whiskers, has been successfully guided
In other words, it should be recognised that
by a human controller (Graham-Rowe,
many of the concerns described below do not
2002). A similar experiment has also been
rely on the long-term development of strong
demonstrated by Steve Potter, Professor of
AI as popularly imagined. As for Section 2.5
Biomedical Engineering at the Georgia
on nanotechnology then, this section, as well
Institute of Technology, who has developed a
as considering the connotations of AI, will
‘rat-controlled robot’ (Cameron, 2002). This
attempt to distinguish between short- and
device results from placing a droplet of
long-term concerns that advancements in this
solution containing thousands of rat neuron
area will surely bring.
cells onto a silicon chip and then relaying the
resulting electrical activity to a robot. The
3 . 5 . 2 Predictive intelligence
robot then manifests these signals with
A c c o rding to Kirsner (2002), the technology
physical motion, each of its movements a
w o r l d ’s big debate for 2003 will centre on
direct result of neurons communicating with
p redictive intelligence. This aspect of AI,
neurons. Such examples of merging computer
a l ready touched upon above, concerns the
chips with living tissue may seem crude, but
ability to use software running on powerf u l
are described by scientists as ‘momentous’ –
computers to analyse information about ones
an event comparable to the first organ
prior behaviour. In the private sector,
transplant or cloned animal (Philipson,
companies are already using pre d i c t i v e
2001). This is because such experiments open
intelligence to analyse data profiles and solve
up the possibility of using computer
m o re mundane business problems. These
technology to supplement human
include Epsilon – a database marketing
intelligence, rather than replace it.
company based in the US, which have been
combing through transactional data since the
In conclusion, then, we will not see full AI in
1980s to help its customers market more
our lives. The reason is that there is no
e ffectively – along with other projects designed
obvious way of getting from here to there –
to identify which customers are more likely to
f rom the rather useless robots and brittle
spend the most money (Kirsner, 2002).
s o f t w a re programs in existence nowadays to
human-level intelligence. A long series of
The most dramatic example of this is pro v i d e d
conceptual bre a k t h roughs are needed, and this
by the US DoD, which has established a
kind of thinking is very difficult to timetable.
re s e a rch group to develop technology for
i n f o rmation gathering and analysis on a huge
3.5 Concerns
scale. Its goal is to mine data sources all over
the world – including government and
3 . 5 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n
c o m m e rcial stores of personal information –
The fields of strong AI and robotics are
to look for terrorists and terrorist thre a t s
generally regarded as controversial because
(Anthes, 2002). This programme includes the
of their far-reaching social, ethical, and
recently-established controversial To t a l
philosophical implications. Research
I n f o rmation Aw a reness (TIA) office which
managers are in no doubt that such
aims to ‘revolutionise the ability of the US to
controversy has affected the funding
detect, classify and identify foreign terro r i s t s ,
environment for AI and the objectives of
decipher their plans, and take timely action to
56
p re-empt and defeat terrorist acts.’ The tools
potential for software and robot autonomy.
which the TIA intends to develop to achieve
In the short term, some commentators
this rely to a large extent on new AI
question whether people will really want to
technologies. These include ‘entity extraction
cede control over our affairs to an art i f i c i a l l y
f rom natural language text’ and ‘biologically
intelligent piece of software, which might even
i n s p i red algorithms for agent contro l . ’
have its own legal powers. Broersma (2001)
F u rt h e rm o re, one of the TIA’s 13 subdivisions,
believes that, while some autonomy is
the Human Identification at a Distance
beneficial, absolute autonomy is frightening.
(HumanID) programme, is releasing contracts
For one thing, it is clear that legal systems are
for face, iris and gait recognition. Another of
not yet pre p a red for high autonomy systems,
the subdivisions, FutureMap, will concentrate
even in scenarios that are relatively simple
on market-based techniques for avoiding
to envisage, such as the possession of personal
surprise and predicting future events
i n f o rmation. In the longer- t e rm, however, in
( H e rt z b e rg, 2002).
which it is possible to envisage extre m e l y
advanced applications of hard AI, serious
A second programme, called Evidence
questions arise concerning military conflict,
Extraction and Link Discovery (EELD),
and robot ‘take-overs’ and machine rights.
aims to develop technology for ‘automated
Each of these is dealt with in turn below.
discovery, extraction and linking of sparse
evidence contained in large amounts of
3.5.3.1 AI and military conflict
classified and unclassified data sources’
This re p o rt shows that the military interest
(Anthes, 2002). In order to achieve this,
in AI is significant. However, as pointed out
EELD will have to develop detection
above, the difficulties involved in achieving
capabilities to extract relevant data and
anything resembling hard AI surely mean that
relationships about people, organisations
any such system will be subject to re l i a b i l i t y
and activities from huge volumes of data.
c o n c e rns. This idea is not new; the issue is
picked up by Thompson as early as 1977, who
A p a rt from the sheer ambitiousness of the
sets out his concerns re g a rding existing and
p rogrammes, TIA and EELD have generated
planned uses of computer technology as part
c o n c e rn mainly in relation to their
of nuclear weapons systems. More generally,
implications for infringing individual and
it is his belief that no computer system has the
g roup privacy, and the possibility of such
capacity to reliably make decisions of the
i n f o rmation being handled carelessly or even
re q u i red kind and in the re q u i re d
leading to malevolence. Indeed, it only takes a
c i rcumstances, nor can one ever be constru c t e d .
moment of reflection to consider that nearly
This is because the complexity and sensitivity
e v e ryone in modern society has at least one
of such systems makes exhaustive
fact about themselves to hide. And yet, in
characterisation extremely difficult, and any
spite of these well-founded concerns, both the
resulting mistakes cannot be corrected via the
TIA and EELD are already in active
usual process of use, failure and modification.
development; in response, Hert z b e rg (2002)
M o re re c e n t l y, the controversial US National
recommends that, at a minimum, a temporary
Missile Defence programme, which is being
shutdown of the EELD system pending some
designed using the latest AI technology,
s o rt of congressional review and the cre a t i o n
p rovides a second example. The system is
of safeguards is highly desirable.
supposed to dispense ‘kill power’ based on
an ability to recognise incoming missiles in a
3.5.3 AI and robotic autonomy
matter of seconds and then decide whether to
Many of the major ethical issues surro u n d i n g
d e s t ro y, intercept of ignore them (Newquist,
A I - related development hinge upon the
1987). However, serious concerns are alre a d y
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
57
being voiced based upon the workability of
greater than that of the human brain, and
such a system. This is because, while testing
with the potential to act malevolently
may be possible for an autonomous tank and
towards humans, we, the undersigned, call
other weapons of the electronic battlefield, it is
on politicians and scientific associations to
not feasible for National Missile Defence. Such
establish an international commission to
a system can only be realistically evaluated in
monitor and control the development of
actual combat (Augarten, 1986). More
artificial intelligence systems.’
f u n d a m e n t a l l y, significant moral diff i c u l t i e s
arise out of human distaste for autonomous
It is this kind of claim that seems to infuriate
weapons. Gary Chapman (2000) summarises
many in the AI scientific community. Chris
this concern well:
Malcolm (2001) of the School of Artificial
Intelligence at Edinburgh University, for
‘[Such arms] are a revolution in warf a re in that
example, describes belief in the robot take-
they will be the first machines given the
over scenario as ‘dangerous’ and
responsibility for killing human beings without
‘misleading’. He points out that public
human direction or supervision. To make this
overreaction to AI stems from an assumption
m o re accurate, these weapons will be the first
that something which displays some of the
killing machines that are actually pre d a t o ry,
attributes of creaturehood must possess all
that are designed to hunt human beings and
the attributes of creaturehood. In his words:
d e s t roy them.’
‘Intelligence is no more enough to make a
Indeed, the UCAV example provided above
real creature than is fur and beady eyes. No
demonstrates that potentially, in battle,
matter how much intelligence is added to
humans may be taken out of the decision-
your word processor it is not going to sulk
making loop and still be on the receiving end –
and refuse to edit any more letters if you
w h e re the ‘kill power’ goes.
don’t improve your spelling...Our problem is
that while we have got used to the idea that
3.5.3.2 Robot ‘take-over’ and machine rights
teddy bears are not real even though we may
Such issues of predatory machines are bound
be in the habit of talking to them at length,
to raise concern over the scenario of AIs
we are not used to contraptions being
overtaking humankind and thus somehow
intelligent enough to talk back, and are
competing with him. This idea has often
willing to credit them with possession of the
been popularised by classic science fiction
full orchestra of creaturehood on hearing a
works and populist academics, such as
few flute-like notes.’
Professor Kevin Warwick, Professor of
Cybernetics at the University of Reading,
Perhaps the most measured assessment of the
UK, who has repeated this beliefs concerning
possibility of tyrannical take-over to date
robot ‘take-over’ on many occasions in the
stems from the work of Whitby and Oliver
press, in his books, and on television and
(2001), who, in addition, to the classic worst
radio. Consider the following letter from
case scenario, focus on the more subtle ideas
Nicholas Albery (1999) of the Institute of
of ‘cultural reliance’ and ‘co-evolution’. With
Social Inventions. Published in New Scientist
regard to the former, the authors conclude
and entitled Robot Terror, Albery seeks
that: ‘although not obviously misguided or
support for the following petition:
incoherent, predictions of tyrannical take-
over are wrong. This is due to a number of
‘In view of the likelihood that early in the
possible failsafe methods, such as buddy
next millennium computers and robots will
systems, ethical systems programming, and
be developed with a capacity and complexity
perhaps most importantly, humans as final
58
arbitrators in decision making.’ In any case,
major applications of AI research are mostly
it is not clear in the first place why
hidden from view because they are embedded
intelligence should necessarily be regarded
in larger software systems. Second, many of
as synonymous with aggression. On the other
these applications are morally ambiguous –
hand, cultural reliance, in which humans
a grey area of ethics that stands in stark
somehow allow a position of dependency on
contrast to Isaac Asimov’s famously clear-cut
AI and robotics to develop, and co-evolution,
three laws of robotics9. Third, presuming
in which human and machine become
that a public debate over AI can be initiated,
inextricably intertwined, are regarded as
there is little evidence to date that this
more probable.
discussion will affect military and
commercial interests. Having said that, there
The strong public reaction to machine take-
is evidence of some attempt to flesh out a
over appears, then, not to be well founded.
code of professionalism for AI. For example,
However, if it is possible to agree, for
in reference to AI and responsibility, Whitby
argument's sake, that humankind will be
(1984) writes:
able to create a truly intelligent machine, a
much deeper issue arises: how will a sentient
‘Where an AI system is introduced into any
artificial being be received by humankind
human system it shall be the responsibility
and by society? Barry (2001) asks pertinent
of the AI professional to ensure that a
questions: ‘Would it be forced to exist like its
human or group of humans within the
automaton predecessors who have effectively
system shall take moral and/or legal
been our slaves, or would it enjoy the same
responsibility for the human consequences
rights as the humans who created it, simply
of any malfunction of the AI system.’
because of its intellect?’ This is an enormous
question that touches religion, politics and
However, there is little sign in the literature
law, but to date little serious discussion has
that suggests these ideas have been followed
been given to the possibility of a new
up on.
intelligent species and to the rights an
autonomous sentient might claim.
Strong AI, on the other hand, asks much
more fundamental questions as the field
3.6 Discussion
necessarily deals with human/machine
The short-term concerns surrounding AI
relationships per se. As a consequence, the
and robotics are mainly ethical in nature.
kinds of tools that might be necessary to
This is in contrast to nanotechnology, the
begin debate over strong AI are not even here
potential dangers of which cover a much
yet, so great are the implications. However, it
larger spectrum and one that includes
is likely that this technology will not occur in
environmental risk. As shown above, weak
our lifetimes; regardless of how often
AI tends to create concern with respect to
Professor Warwick is presented as an AI
its role as a tool for human interaction,
expert, the fact remains that his opinions are
throwing up issues of responsibility,
far removed from the majority view of the
privacy and trust. Applications in this area
AI community (Colton, 2001). On the other
are emerging all the time, making 2003 the
hand, this report is by no means intended to
right time to begin public debate over these
downplay such potentially revolutionary
concerns. This is important for three main
developments as ‘mere’ science fiction. For,
reasons. First, there might be a tendency for
if the long-term potential of AI was to be
AI technology to creep into out lives largely
realised, then it would surely have a
unnoticed. This is because of the well-
demonstrable impact in a whole range of
documented AI effect, due to which the
industrial and, in particular, service sectors.
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
59
4. Conclusion
This report began by stressing the need to
example, the concourse of nanoscience,
provide background information on
biotechnology, IT, and cognitive science
nanotechnology and AI. In doing so, it was
(‘NBIC’) was discussed during a December
hoped that the prospects of these emerging
2001 NSF workshop. NBIC, it was agreed
technologies to affect quality of life in the
‘could achieve a tremendous improvement in
coming decades could be realistically
human abilities, societal outcomes, the
assessed. One consequence of providing
nation’s productivity and the quality of life’
such an overview is that there can be no
(Roco and Bainbridge, 2003). In some ways,
decisive conclusions as such; the industries
the above conclusion is hardly surprising
characterised here are too dynamic and
given the ambitious and broad scope of the
uncertain to generate any real sense of
technologies discussed in this report. As
resolution. However, it is possible to
pointed out above, ‘convergence’ largely
highlight a number of important differences
arises from the wide availability of
and similarities between nanotechnology
techniques and tools on offer today – the real
and AI which go some way to shedding
innovation stems from the process of
more light on their character.
bringing individuals from traditionally
separate disciplines together.
Perhaps the greatest contrast between the
two industries concerns public interest.
Most importantly for convergence here,
Indeed, as this report has demonstrated,
it is possible that developments in
nanotechnology is widely regarded as a
nanotechnology could lead to advances
‘new’ and exciting branch of science and
in AI through improvements in computer
technology. This belief has contributed to
miniaturisation, performance, or architecture
the massive period of growth that this high-
(but see Section 3.4.2 on barriers to strong
profile and wide-ranging field is currently
AI), or through the sensor interface. In
enjoying. AI, on the other hand, is viewed by
addition, it seems fair to assume that any
many as an highly specialised and unproven
futuristic nanobots would have to be imbued
discipline. One reason for this concerns the
with a reasonable degree of AI. A second,
gross over-optimism that characterised the
more contentious similarity concerns
industry in the 1960s and 1980s. Another
reinvention. As demonstrated in this report,
reason reflects the AI community’s seemingly
the ‘rediscovery’ of AI has been a virtual
insurmountable difficulty in publicising its
necessity for the survival of the industry;
own achievements without whipping up
for nanotechnology the phenomena is less
general anxiety over machine superiority.
obvious but is arguably there all the same.
The upshot of all this has been the field’s
That is, as a natural extension of the
struggle to attract funding in the past and
micromechanical and MEMS research that
it is likely that this trend will continue for
begun in the 1960s, nanoscience is hardly
sometime into the foreseeable future.
‘new’ as such; rather, ‘nano’ can be viewed
as a useful tag with which to boost funding.
Revealing similarities also exist between
Just what the consequences of this strategy
nanotechnology and AI. There has been
will be, it is hard to tell. Ironically, AI
much talk recently regarding the convergence
provides an excellent example of a promising
of traditionally separate scientific fields, in
scientific discipline that has often resulted in
particular the blurring of the boundaries
disappointment. Whether the same happens
between the physical sciences and life
to nanotechnology remains to be seen.
sciences – perhaps even the first step towards
the long sought after unification of physics,
The second consequence of providing an
chemistry and biology (Howard, 2002). For
overview is that certain elements of
60
nanotechnology and AI development are
by industry, transport and the domestic
bound to be overlooked. First, the difficulties
sector. The way in which these more
of drawing out accurate statistics for
fundamental changes might impact on the
corporate R&D have already been alluded
environment would have to form the basis
to earlier. Second, there are wide ranging
of a much larger technology assessment, in
applications across the economy for sensors
which long-term structural changes to global
that can support industrial processes and be
industry and commerce were considered.
incorporated into new or existing products
(Miles and Jarvis, 2001). The application of
F i n a l l y, it is easy to overlook the lessons that
nanotechnology to this area should allow for
attitudes towards technological development
improvements in functionality and much
teach us about human nature. This re p o rt has
decreased size. Third, a more in-depth
l a rgely relied upon the technique of looking
analysis of environmental concerns is
ahead, identifying technological possibilities,
warranted. This is because public
and assessing the likelihood of successfully
acceptability of such risk is likely to vary
moving towards their realisation. Significantly,
considerably in relation to the application
this process mirrors that of technological
being considered. For example, the
innovators, a kind of thinking that often
application of nanotechnology to
translates into the belief that technological
computerisation is less likely to cause
development is autonomous – the ultimate
concern than those practices which might
self-fulfilling pro p h e c y. To some extent we are
lead to the release of nanoparticles into the
a l ready on this road. Most technologies
environment, such as the disposal of nano-
c o v e red in this re p o rt are within the bounds of
based composites. Fourth, it is possible to
c u rrent scientific possibility and it is just a
conceive of a number of environmental
matter of time, eff o rt and expenditure before
goods that may arise. For example, the
they are realised. However, the contrasting
potential for gains in energy generation and
f o rtunes of the nanotechnology and AI
efficiency have already pointed out above
industries remind us that much of this
(Section 2.3.4.), and it is conceivable that
p ro g ress hinges on public appro v a l .
dramatic improvements in environmental
U l t i m a t e l y, a 21st-Century acceptance model
sensing and modelling could also be
calls for technological innovations to be
achieved. However, any pervasive diffusion
received on a voluntary basis where the
of nano- and AI-based technologies in the
p e rceptible usefulness of new technology
coming decades is bound to have a
p roducts are balanced against associated risks
significant effect on the demand for resources
that are shown to be manageable.
Future Technologies, Today's Choices
61
E n d n o t e s
1 – 9
1 Grove-White, R., Macnaghton, P. and Wynne B. (2000). Wising Up: The Public
and New Technologies, Lancaster, UK: IEPPP, Lancaster University.
2 It is worth bearing in mind when consulting this type of information that, given
the difficulty of even agreeing on what constitutes nanotechnology, many of the
numbers presented below should be treated with caution (Roman, 2002).
3 For a detailed breakdown, see the NNI’s own report at:
http://www.nano.gov/2003budget.html
4 For a detailed description of the history of AI, see the University of Edinburgh’s
Division of Informatics Website at:
http://www.dai.ed.ac.uk/AI_at_Edinburgh_perspective.html
5 For more information, see Ruthfield, 1995.
6 See Honda’s Website for more information at: http://world.honda.com/robot/
7 For details, see National Research Council, 1999.
8 For a full description of this paradigm shift, see Humphrys, 1997.
9 The Three Laws of Robotics are:
a. A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a
human being to come to harm;
b. A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings except where
such orders would conflict with the First Law;
c. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not
conflict with the First or Second Law.
For a fuller explanation see:
http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/0,,sid9_gci520366,00.html
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