1 Minnesota Public Radio News And Humphrey Institute Poll Obama ...
Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll
Obama Propelled by Financial Crisis and Vice Presidential Debate
Report prepared by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs
University of Minnesota
Lawrence R. Jacobs
Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance
Joanne M. Miller
Research Associate, Center for Study of Politics and Governance
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science
According to two Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute polls, the extraordinary
financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the Vice Presidential debate
propelled the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama from a narrow 4 point lead (47
percent to 43 percent) to a 14 point advantage among likely voters in Minnesota (54 percent to 40
percent).
Presidential Choice of Likely Minnesota Voters
Obama
McCain
Somebody Else
DK / Refused
Before October 2nd
47%
43%
2%
9%
After October 2nd
54%
40%
2%
4%
The presidential race in Minnesota was impacted by several critical events before and after
October 2nd. First, the financial crisis culminated in extraordinary action in Congress as the
Senate passed a massive rescue bill and the House of Representatives reversed its earlier negative
vote to enact the package on Friday October 3rd. Second, the debate between Sarah Palin and Joe
Biden on Thursday October 2nd drew a record audience for a Vice Presidential debate; its
audience was nearly 50 percent larger than the audience for the first presidential debate.
The surveys were conducted of 346 likely voters between September 29, 2008 and October 1,
2008, and 418 likely voters between October 3rd and October 5th. The margin of error is +/-5.3
percentage points and 4.8 points, respectively. For smaller subgroups the margin of sampling
error is larger.
Explaining Obama’s Surge
Obama’s surge after last week’s events results from two general factors.
First, the financial crisis and the culmination of congressional action increased the
perception that Obama would do a better job handling the problems in the investment
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banking industry. Before October 2nd, the evaluations of the Obama’s and McCain’s handling
of the investment banking problems were comparable – the Democrat held a narrow 4 point
margin. In the days after October 2nd, however, Obama opened up a substantial 14 point
advantage – 52 percent to 38 percent.
Strong Evaluations of Obama’s Handling of Financial Crisis
Obama will do
McCain will do
Obama
better job
better job
Advantage
Before October 2nd
47%
44%
3 points
After October 2nd
52%
38%
14 points
Vin Weber and other prominent Republicans warned that the opposition by House Republicans
would “tarnish” the brand of the Republican Party for managing the economy and boost the
Democratic Party’s reputation. Indeed, the dramatic events in Washington and other
developments widened the gap between Minnesotans identifying with the Democratic Party as
compared to the Republican Party from a 10 point margin to a 15 point margin.
Tarnishing the Republican Brand
Identify with
Identify with
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Advantage
Before October 2nd
49%
39%
10 points
After October 2nd
53%
38%
15 points
The Vice Presidential debate was the second factor that boosted Obama’s support. Biden’s
performance prompted 26 percent of Minnesotans who watched or read about the debate to
become more likely to vote for Obama compared to only 8 percent who became less likely to
support the Democrat. By contrast, Palin had little net effect on voters’ support for McCain.
Impact on Presidential Candidate of VP Debate Performance
Palin’s Impact on
Biden’s Impact on
Voting for McCain
Voting for Obama
More likely to vote for
17%
26%
Presidential Candidate
Less likely to vote for
19%
8%
Presidential Candidate
Make No Difference
62%
64%
Biden’s boost of Obama reflected four shifts in voter evaluations of the Democratic and
Republican running mates. There is a consistent and significant shift toward more favorable
evaluations of Biden compared to Palin. Where Palin was seen as a bit more honest before the
debate (45 percent to 41 percent margin), Biden was sized up as more honest afterward by those
who saw or read about the debate (47 percent to 41 percent). This represents a net shift of 10
points – from a 4 point Palin advantage to a 6 point Biden edge. Similar or larger shifts toward a
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more favorable evaluation of Biden occurred on presidential experience (8 point gain for Biden),
caring (13 point gain), and centrist political views (12 point gain).
Changing Evaluations of Vice Presidential Candidates
Shift Toward
Pre-Debate
Post Debate
Biden
Palin
Biden
Palin
Biden
Honesty
45
41
41
47
10 points
Right Experience to
24
67
21
72
8 points
Be President
Cares About People
50
37
46
46
13 points
like Me
Political Views About
41
46
40
57
12 points
Right
Room to Move: Race Remains Fluid
Although Obama has opened up a significant 14 point lead, the race remains fluid. The sudden
speed of the shift from a narrow 4 point edge and the continuing openness of Minnesota voters
suggest that the race may change in the coming weeks before Election Day. After October 2nd,
more Minnesotans became certain of their choice for president but 12 percent continued to
indicate that they might change their mind and these voters were evenly distributed between
Obama and McCain. Although Obama has an edge among voters certain about their candidate,
there is a room for future erosion in his support.
Remaining Uncertainty Over Candidate
All Voters
Obama
McCain
Before October 2nd
Certain
81%
53%
44%
May change mind
16%
33%
50%
After October 2nd
Certain
88%
57%
40%
May change mind
12%
45%
49%
There are three elements of the Minnesotan electorate to consider in evaluating how the election
may evolve in the coming weeks. To conduct this investigation, we combined our two surveys to
create a larger sample that permits more fine-tuned analyses. (This combined set of data, which
includes interviews with 766 likely voters from September 29 through October 5th, finds Obama
ahead by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.)
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First, nearly 1 out of 5 voters (17 percent) are newer voters – that is, they are voting for the first
time or have not voted in recent elections. Newer voters have yet to develop the “habit” of voting
and may be particularly prone not to turn out to vote. Among the more than half of the
electorate that will definitely turnout, Obama has a 50 point lead. McCain’s supporters are
concentrated among voters less certain to vote: he has a 5 point edge among the quarter who are
only probably going to vote, a 6 point lead among those who are probably not going to vote and a
60 point gap among those who definitely do not plan to vote.
McCain Supporters among Newer Voters May Not Turnout
All Voters
Obama
McCain
Definitely will Vote
54%
74%
24%
Probably will Vote
23%
41%
46%
Probably won't Vote
10%
47%
53%
Definitely won't Vote
13%
20%
80%
McCain Opportunities Among Swing Voters
McCain appears to have some opportunities to pick up support among the 19 percent of likely
voters who are undecided or may change their minds about which candidate to support. In
particular, McCain has an edge among swing voters in handling the investing bank problems. In
addition, swing voters accept that McCain will take the country in a new direction rather than
continue the policies of President George Bush.
McCain Opportunities among likely voters who are up for grabs
Handling Problems in the Investment Banking Industry
%
Obama
32%
McCain
42%
Same (vol.)
7%
DK / Refused
20%
McCain and Bush policies
Continue Bush policies
32%
Take the country in new direction
62%
DK / Refused
5%
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Obama’s Strong Coalition
Obama is assembling a strong coalition and minimizing support for McCain among groups of
voters who might be expected to support the Republican. Obama has an 18 point advantage
among women and only a 3 point deficit among men. In addition, Obama does not appear to be
suffering from a racial backlash: the two candidates are about even among white voters (92
percent of likely voters) and enjoys a 50 point lead among voters of color. Obama also enjoys
leads among different age groups, especially among youth (18 point gap) and seniors (12 point
advantage).
Voter Groups that Support Obama
All Voters
Obama
McCain
Male
49%
44%
47%
Female
51%
55%
37%
White
92%
47%
44%
Non-White
9%
75%
25%
17-29
15%
58%
40%
30-44
28%
47%
43%
45-59
29%
47%
43%
60 and older
28%
52%
40%
Evangelical Support for McCain
The lopsided support of evangelicals is a strength for John McCain, perhaps reflecting the benefit
of having Sarah Palin on the ticket. Among the third of Minnesotan voters who are evangelicals,
the Republican has a nearly 30 point advantage.
All Voters
Obama
McCain
Evangelical
36%
33%
60%
Not Evangelical
64%
51%
38%
A Comparison with Previous Surveys of the Presidential Contest
Our findings are consistent with recent polls of a presidential election that has experienced
remarkable events from the financial crisis to the extraordinary interest in the vice presidential
candidates. Our survey in the 3 days before October 2nd found a close race that is statistically
consistent with the SurveyUSA finding of a 1 point McCain edge. Our survey in the 3 days after
October 2nd found a 14 point Obama lead that is statistically consistent with the Star Tribune poll,
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which was in the field as Congress was starting to handle the financial rescue plan and the Vice
Presidential debate was conducted.
Pollster
Date
Sample
Obama (D) McCain (R)
Spread
Star Tribune
9/30-10/2
1084LV
55
37
Obama +18
SurveyUSA
9/30-10/1
725LV
46
47
McCain+1
CNN/Time
9/28-9/30
849LV
54
43
Obama +11
The financial crisis and the congressional responses to it combined with the historic debate
between the vice presidential candidates may be producing significant turbulence in the race,
which may help to account for the striking increase in Obama’s support in our polls as well as the
seemingly inconsistent findings of the 2 previous polls.
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About the Survey
This survey is a collaboration between Minnesota Public Radio and the Center for the Study of
Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs.
The survey was analyzed by the Center. The research team was Lawrence R. Jacobs (director)
and Joanne M. Miller (Department of Political Science). Melanie Burns was the team’s research
and data analyst.
The survey was fielded by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis (CSRA) at the University
of Connecticut, which has extensive national and state experience conducting non-partisan
surveys on politics and government policy. CSRA called a sample of telephone exchanges that
was randomly selected by a computer from a list of active residential exchanges within the State
of Minnesota. Within each exchange, random digits were added to form a complete telephone
number, thus permitting access to both listed and unlisted numbers. The samples were designed
to represent different regions of the state in proportion to the number of adults living in each
region. Within each household, one adult was selected to be the respondent for the survey.
Results are based on a model which adjusts responses according to the likelihood of a respondent
voting. Likelihood to vote is based on the following factors: self-reported probability of voting in
the upcoming election, voting in previous elections as reported by the respondent, enthusiasm for
the 2008 election, and incorporates differential turnout levels in urban, suburban, and rural areas.
In addition, the results have been weighted to reflect the number of adults in a household and the
number of telephone lines reaching the household as well as the demographic characteristics of
adults in Minnesota based on region, sex, age, education, and race. Our analysis indicates that
70% percent of Minnesotans who are 18 or over are likely to vote in November.
In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion
may introduce sources of error into the poll. Variations in the wording and order of questions, for
example, may lead to somewhat different results.
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Questions
If the 2008 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for ... (READ
CHOICES 1-2) (IF DK/REF: As of today, who do you lean more towards?)
Democrat Barack Obama ...................................................................... 01
Republican John McCain ...................................................................... 02
Somebody Else (specify) ...................................................................... 80 O
Won't vote (vol) .................................................................................... 97
Don't know (vol.) .................................................................................. 98
Refused (vol.)
99
Are you certain now that you will vote for <q1> <q1:o> for president, or do you think you
may change your mind between now and the November election?
Certain .................................................................................................. 01
May change mind ................................................................................. 02
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
Which presidential candidate do you think will do a better job handling the problems in the
investment banking industry? (READ CHOICES 1-2)
permutation -> 2 .......................................................................................
Barack Obama ...................................................................................... 01
John McCain ......................................................................................... 02
Same (vol.) ........................................................................................... 03
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused
99
Does Palin's performance in the debate make you more or less likely to vote for McCain, or
didn't it make a difference?
More likely to vote for him ................................................................... 01
Less likely to vote for him .................................................................... 02
It didn't make a difference .................................................................... 03
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
Does Biden's performance in the debate make you more or less likely to vote for Obama, or
didn't it make a difference?
More likely to vote for him ................................................................... 01
Less likely to vote for him .................................................................... 02
It didn't make a difference .................................................................... 03
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
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Next, I am going to read you a list of statements. Tell me whether you think each statement
applies more to Joe Biden or Sarah Palin.
Continue ............................................................................................... 01 D
Is honest? (READ CHOICES 1-2) (PROBE: Which candidate does this statement apply
more to?)
permutation -> 2 .......................................................................................
Joe Biden .............................................................................................. 01
Sarah Palin ............................................................................................ 02
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
Has the right experience to be president? (READ CHOICES 1-2) (PROBE: Which candidate
does this statement apply more to?)
permutation -> 2 .......................................................................................
Joe Biden .............................................................................................. 01
Sarah Palin ............................................................................................ 02
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
Cares about people like me? (READ CHOICES 1-2) (PROBE: Which candidate does this
statement apply more to?)
permutation -> 2 .......................................................................................
Joe Biden .............................................................................................. 01
Sarah Palin ............................................................................................ 02
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
Next, I am going to asking about some of the political candidates competing in this year's
election.
Continue ............................................................................................... 01 D
Do you think Joe Biden's political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal?
Too Conservative .................................................................................. 01
About Right .......................................................................................... 02
Too Liberal ........................................................................................... 03
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
Do you think Sarah Palin's political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal?
Too Conservative .................................................................................. 01
About Right .......................................................................................... 02
Too Liberal ........................................................................................... 03
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
If John McCain were elected President, do you think he would generally continue George
W. Bush's policies, or would he take the country in a different direction?
Continue George W. Bush's policies .................................................... 01
Take the country in a different direction .............................................. 02
Don't Know ........................................................................................... 98
Refused ................................................................................................. 99
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